Singapore's Hyflux up on business trust plans, Credit Suisse keeps 'outperform'
10/12/2007 2:15:00 PM
SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - Shares in Hyflux Ltd were higher Friday, bucking the broader market decline on news the water utility company intends to list a business trust on the Singapore exchange by the end of the year.
Hyflux yesterday said Hyflux Water Trust (HWT) will have an initial portfolio of 13 water treatment facilities in China, with a pipeline of 12 more water-related infrastructure assets to be injected in 2008 and 2009.
The company has not disclosed the valuations of the assets and the size of the initial public offering.
Hyflux will hold at least a 25 percent stake in HWT for two years after listing and will also help HWT meet its projected distributions for 2008 and 2009.
"With its stake in HWT, Hyflux would receive the recurring income streams generated from distributable income from HWT and receive other long-term recurring fee income streams," Credit Suisse said in a client note.
"Clearly, this is one of the key catalysts (for growth) we have highlighted ...and this is happening much earlier than expected," it said.
Credit Suisse is keeping its "outperform" rating on Hyflux with a target price of 4.00 Singapore dollars per share. The current target price does not include the potential impact from the water trust, it said.
At 2.08 pm (0608 GMT), Hyflux was up 6 cents or 1.7 percent at 3.54 Singapore dollars with 2.2 million shares traded.
Friday, October 12, 2007
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
The Sunday Times: Should you invest your CPF savings elsewhere?
Should you invest your CPF savings elsewhere?
Changes to CPF rules have left Singaporeans with a key question about their cash - do they take it or leave it?
Lorna TanSun, Oct 07, 2007The Sunday Times
CHANGES to Central Provident Fund (CPF) rules have left Singaporeans with a key question about their cash - do they take it or leave it?
Taking it means trying to invest it somewhere else in the hope of better returns. Otherwise, they could leave the money with the Board.
Financial advisers and insurance agents are naturally pushing the first option, and they are stepping up efforts to persuade Singaporeans to invest their CPF savings.
Under the new rules, which will take effect on April 1, a CPF member will not be allowed to invest the first $20,000 of his CPF Ordinary and Special accounts savings under the CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS).
Money already invested through the CPFIS will not be affected. A member can still use Ordinary Account (OA) funds for housing, CPF insurance and education schemes.
This explains why financial advisers and insurance agents are keen to get Singaporeans to invest their CPF savings with them.
And the campaign has been intense.
Intensified efforts
SECONDARY school teacher Shirley Phua, 40, said: 'My adviser has been trying to convince me to invest my CPF savings. He says his recommended unit trusts will give a better return than the CPF guaranteed rates.'
Ms Phua might be in safe hands if she takes a medium- to long-term view and her adviser constructs a diversified investment portfolio.
Other CPF members might not be so lucky if they encounter unscrupulous advisers and agents employing tactics such as the promise of 'instant cash' if CPF money is invested in unit trusts.
Classified newspaper advertisments are offering 'instant cash' of 1 per cent, or $1,000, for every $100,000 invested. One such ad reads: 'Fast cash. Use CPF to assist you.'
Market observers say the ads are a clear sign that some unscrupulous agents are still trying to make a quick buck by inducing CPF members to make unsuitable investments using cash that is earmarked for their retirement.
It is estimated that 10 to 30 per cent of advisers and agents are offering cash rebates - a practice that contravenes CPF policy.
Cash rebates or freebies are in effect a premature withdrawal of CPF savings and a violation of CPF Board rules.
Not surprisingly, the topic of higher interest returns was one of the most controversial during the recent Parliament debate.
It also made its rounds in Internet chatrooms and forums. One popular website, for example, had this comment: 'Once the money is in CPF, it is considered gone. There is no flexibility, you can't invest elsewhere to take advantage of opportunities.'
It was referring to the first $20,000 of a CPF member's savings in the OA and Special Account (SA).
Key changes
LAST month, the Government announced changes to the CPF that are aimed at ensuring Singaporeans will have sufficient lifetime savings.
CPF members will receive additional interest of 1 percentage point on the first $60,000 in their accounts.
This means an interest rate of 3.5 per cent will apply to the first $20,000 in the OA; a rate of about 5 per cent will apply to the next $40,000 in the Special, Medisave and Retirement accounts (SMRA).
Other changes include delaying the drawdown age for the Minimum Sum to 65 in 2018 and a new longevity insurance scheme.
From Jan 1, there will be a new interest rate on CPF savings. While the OA rate, which is pegged to bank rates, has been a guaranteed 2.5 per cent, the SMRA rate has been 1.5 per cent higher at 4 per cent.
Under the new system, the SMRA rates will be pegged to the previous 10-year Singapore Government Securities (SGS) rate plus 1 percentage point.
The average SGS rate is now 3 per cent, so the SMRA rate would be 4 per cent - the SGS rate of 3 per cent plus 1 percentage point.
To help members adjust to the floating rate, the Government will pay out a minimum of 4 per cent on the SMRA for the next two years.
This 4 per cent floor will also apply to the first $60,000 in the combined CPF accounts that enjoy a higher interest rate.
After two years, the 2.5 per cent floor rate will apply for all accounts as prescribed under the CPF Act.
Expert views
MOST financial advisers, such as Mr Leong Sze Hian, the president of the Society of Financial Service Professionals, recommend that people should invest in higher-return assets to maximise their nest eggs.
Mr Leong said a diversified global portfolio has a 'very high probability' of achieving annual returns of 6 per cent over a five- to 10-year period.
'The longer one's time horizon is, the higher the probability is and the lower the risks are,' he pointed out.
The chief executive of wealth management firm dollarDEX, Mr Chris Firth, told The Sunday Times that, for long-term investors, 2.5 per cent or 3.5 per cent a year is not a good return.
'Even 5 per cent can be beaten in the long run with a good balanced fund or diversified portfolio without too much risk,' he said.
'Depending on the client's situation, I would advise investing CPF money in approved equities and bonds, regardless of the floor rate. Still, clients need to recognise the risks involved.'
Ipac financial planning's senior vice-president, Mr Scott Mitchell, said that if a member would need his savings in the short term, say, five years, then it made more sense to leave the funds in the CPF account.
Mr Firth said that for low-risk clients or those with short-term needs, the CPF floor rate returns could be seen as a risk-free investment.
Mr Joseph Chong, the chief executive of financial advisory firm New Independent, noted firmly that CPF members should leave the first $20,000 of their OA and SA savings with the Board.
'The Government is giving very good, risk-free rates, essentially protected against inflation. At 3.5 per cent, it's the real rate of return plus 1 per cent. Let this form a crucial part of your bond portfolio,' he said.
Ms Anne Tay, OCBC Bank's vice-president for group wealth management, noted that CPF members need to find an investment that pays at least 3.5 per cent - the CPF rate - for the first $20,000 in OA savings if they plan to take the cash from the Board.
'If you can find an investment that has a good track record of consistently beating the 3.5 per cent return mark, invest your money. Make it work harder for you,' Ms Tay advised.
As for the next $40,000 in the SMRA, she said it made sense to invest this money in products with consistent performance records that beat the hurdle rate of 4.5 per cent.
She is assuming that even if the 10-year Singapore government bond falls to 2.5 per cent, the new SMRA formula would give you 2.5 per cent plus 1 percentage point plus 1 percentage point - for a total of 4.5 per cent.
Ms Tay calculated that if the first $60,000 is left with the board, it will grow to $92,000 based on the new changes and a 10-year horizon.
If a member is prepared to take on the risks associated with higher returns, say, 7 per cent a year over 10 years, the amount will grow to $118,000. This means a difference of $26,000.
Over a 20-year period, the difference between leaving the amount with the Board and investing at 7 per cent a year would snowball into $93,800.
Potential risks
AS WITH most financial investments, there are risks involved in investing CPF savings.
Statistics showed that between 1993 and 2004, nearly three out of every four people who had invested under the
CPFIS ended up worse off than if they had just parked their money in their CPF accounts.
It is believed that these Singaporeans got burnt because of a lack of financial education.
Mr Patrick Lim, the associate director of financial advisory firm PromiseLand Independent, highlights some potential risks and concerns:
- Investing in products that are not diversified and not tailored to a CPF member's risk profile.
- Investments that come with high fees and sales charges. High fees will eat into returns.
One reason for the poor returns of unit trusts in the past has been the high cost of investing.
That is why the front-end sales charge for CPFIS-approved unit trusts has been capped at 3 per cent since July this year.
- The investment time horizon of CPF members.
- Other changes to the CPF that could affect investments.
Investing a lump sum now could mean timing the market wrongly.
Mr Lim says: 'This might be significant if we remember that many CPF members invested at the peak of the dot.com bubble in 2000.
'Many of their investments are still 'deeply under water'.'
Changes to CPF rules have left Singaporeans with a key question about their cash - do they take it or leave it?
Lorna TanSun, Oct 07, 2007The Sunday Times
CHANGES to Central Provident Fund (CPF) rules have left Singaporeans with a key question about their cash - do they take it or leave it?
Taking it means trying to invest it somewhere else in the hope of better returns. Otherwise, they could leave the money with the Board.
Financial advisers and insurance agents are naturally pushing the first option, and they are stepping up efforts to persuade Singaporeans to invest their CPF savings.
Under the new rules, which will take effect on April 1, a CPF member will not be allowed to invest the first $20,000 of his CPF Ordinary and Special accounts savings under the CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS).
Money already invested through the CPFIS will not be affected. A member can still use Ordinary Account (OA) funds for housing, CPF insurance and education schemes.
This explains why financial advisers and insurance agents are keen to get Singaporeans to invest their CPF savings with them.
And the campaign has been intense.
Intensified efforts
SECONDARY school teacher Shirley Phua, 40, said: 'My adviser has been trying to convince me to invest my CPF savings. He says his recommended unit trusts will give a better return than the CPF guaranteed rates.'
Ms Phua might be in safe hands if she takes a medium- to long-term view and her adviser constructs a diversified investment portfolio.
Other CPF members might not be so lucky if they encounter unscrupulous advisers and agents employing tactics such as the promise of 'instant cash' if CPF money is invested in unit trusts.
Classified newspaper advertisments are offering 'instant cash' of 1 per cent, or $1,000, for every $100,000 invested. One such ad reads: 'Fast cash. Use CPF to assist you.'
Market observers say the ads are a clear sign that some unscrupulous agents are still trying to make a quick buck by inducing CPF members to make unsuitable investments using cash that is earmarked for their retirement.
It is estimated that 10 to 30 per cent of advisers and agents are offering cash rebates - a practice that contravenes CPF policy.
Cash rebates or freebies are in effect a premature withdrawal of CPF savings and a violation of CPF Board rules.
Not surprisingly, the topic of higher interest returns was one of the most controversial during the recent Parliament debate.
It also made its rounds in Internet chatrooms and forums. One popular website, for example, had this comment: 'Once the money is in CPF, it is considered gone. There is no flexibility, you can't invest elsewhere to take advantage of opportunities.'
It was referring to the first $20,000 of a CPF member's savings in the OA and Special Account (SA).
Key changes
LAST month, the Government announced changes to the CPF that are aimed at ensuring Singaporeans will have sufficient lifetime savings.
CPF members will receive additional interest of 1 percentage point on the first $60,000 in their accounts.
This means an interest rate of 3.5 per cent will apply to the first $20,000 in the OA; a rate of about 5 per cent will apply to the next $40,000 in the Special, Medisave and Retirement accounts (SMRA).
Other changes include delaying the drawdown age for the Minimum Sum to 65 in 2018 and a new longevity insurance scheme.
From Jan 1, there will be a new interest rate on CPF savings. While the OA rate, which is pegged to bank rates, has been a guaranteed 2.5 per cent, the SMRA rate has been 1.5 per cent higher at 4 per cent.
Under the new system, the SMRA rates will be pegged to the previous 10-year Singapore Government Securities (SGS) rate plus 1 percentage point.
The average SGS rate is now 3 per cent, so the SMRA rate would be 4 per cent - the SGS rate of 3 per cent plus 1 percentage point.
To help members adjust to the floating rate, the Government will pay out a minimum of 4 per cent on the SMRA for the next two years.
This 4 per cent floor will also apply to the first $60,000 in the combined CPF accounts that enjoy a higher interest rate.
After two years, the 2.5 per cent floor rate will apply for all accounts as prescribed under the CPF Act.
Expert views
MOST financial advisers, such as Mr Leong Sze Hian, the president of the Society of Financial Service Professionals, recommend that people should invest in higher-return assets to maximise their nest eggs.
Mr Leong said a diversified global portfolio has a 'very high probability' of achieving annual returns of 6 per cent over a five- to 10-year period.
'The longer one's time horizon is, the higher the probability is and the lower the risks are,' he pointed out.
The chief executive of wealth management firm dollarDEX, Mr Chris Firth, told The Sunday Times that, for long-term investors, 2.5 per cent or 3.5 per cent a year is not a good return.
'Even 5 per cent can be beaten in the long run with a good balanced fund or diversified portfolio without too much risk,' he said.
'Depending on the client's situation, I would advise investing CPF money in approved equities and bonds, regardless of the floor rate. Still, clients need to recognise the risks involved.'
Ipac financial planning's senior vice-president, Mr Scott Mitchell, said that if a member would need his savings in the short term, say, five years, then it made more sense to leave the funds in the CPF account.
Mr Firth said that for low-risk clients or those with short-term needs, the CPF floor rate returns could be seen as a risk-free investment.
Mr Joseph Chong, the chief executive of financial advisory firm New Independent, noted firmly that CPF members should leave the first $20,000 of their OA and SA savings with the Board.
'The Government is giving very good, risk-free rates, essentially protected against inflation. At 3.5 per cent, it's the real rate of return plus 1 per cent. Let this form a crucial part of your bond portfolio,' he said.
Ms Anne Tay, OCBC Bank's vice-president for group wealth management, noted that CPF members need to find an investment that pays at least 3.5 per cent - the CPF rate - for the first $20,000 in OA savings if they plan to take the cash from the Board.
'If you can find an investment that has a good track record of consistently beating the 3.5 per cent return mark, invest your money. Make it work harder for you,' Ms Tay advised.
As for the next $40,000 in the SMRA, she said it made sense to invest this money in products with consistent performance records that beat the hurdle rate of 4.5 per cent.
She is assuming that even if the 10-year Singapore government bond falls to 2.5 per cent, the new SMRA formula would give you 2.5 per cent plus 1 percentage point plus 1 percentage point - for a total of 4.5 per cent.
Ms Tay calculated that if the first $60,000 is left with the board, it will grow to $92,000 based on the new changes and a 10-year horizon.
If a member is prepared to take on the risks associated with higher returns, say, 7 per cent a year over 10 years, the amount will grow to $118,000. This means a difference of $26,000.
Over a 20-year period, the difference between leaving the amount with the Board and investing at 7 per cent a year would snowball into $93,800.
Potential risks
AS WITH most financial investments, there are risks involved in investing CPF savings.
Statistics showed that between 1993 and 2004, nearly three out of every four people who had invested under the
CPFIS ended up worse off than if they had just parked their money in their CPF accounts.
It is believed that these Singaporeans got burnt because of a lack of financial education.
Mr Patrick Lim, the associate director of financial advisory firm PromiseLand Independent, highlights some potential risks and concerns:
- Investing in products that are not diversified and not tailored to a CPF member's risk profile.
- Investments that come with high fees and sales charges. High fees will eat into returns.
One reason for the poor returns of unit trusts in the past has been the high cost of investing.
That is why the front-end sales charge for CPFIS-approved unit trusts has been capped at 3 per cent since July this year.
- The investment time horizon of CPF members.
- Other changes to the CPF that could affect investments.
Investing a lump sum now could mean timing the market wrongly.
Mr Lim says: 'This might be significant if we remember that many CPF members invested at the peak of the dot.com bubble in 2000.
'Many of their investments are still 'deeply under water'.'
CNA: S'pore GDP growth remains strong in Q3, up 9.4% year-on-year
10 October 2007 0813 hrs (SST)
SINGAPORE: Singapore's economy powered to 9.4 per cent growth in the third quarter, within market forecasts, putting it on track to meet the government's full-year targets, the trade ministry said on Wednesday.
Gross domestic product grew 9.4 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier, the ministry said. That followed a revised 8.7 per cent expansion in GDP during the second quarter, it said.
Economists were expecting third-quarter growth of between nine and ten per cent.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP growth slowed to 6.4 per cent from 14.4 per cent in the second quarter, the trade ministry said.
"The Singapore economy continued to register strong growth in the third quarter of 2007," it said in a press release, adding the economy "is well on track" to meet full-year growth targets.
In August, the government raised its full-year growth target to between 7.0 and 8.0 per cent after better-than-expected second-quarter expansion.
The trade ministry said third-quarter growth in the manufacturing sector reached an estimated 12.3 per cent, up from 8.3 per cent in the preceding quarter. It said manufacturing growth was underpinned by the biomedical sector and transport engineering, which includes oil rigs and ships.
Growth in the construction sector is estimated to have eased to 15.5 per cent compared with 18.8 per cent last quarter, while the services sector expanded an estimated 8.1 per cent, against 8.4 per cent in the second quarter, MTI said.
Action Economics chief economist David Cohen said there was some moderation from the second quarter but year-on-year growth picked up. "It's still a solid growth," he said.
Singapore is undergoing a property and construction boom, with cranes towering over the skyline.
The positive outlook for both the construction and manufacturing sectors could push the city-state's GDP expansion above the government's official targets, to 8.3 per cent for the year, Cohen said.
Despite a recent crisis in the US "sub-prime" mortgage sector and fears of a slowing US economy, Cohen said the third-quarter data reflected continued momentum in Singapore.
Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB-GK securities, said on local radio that he expects the third-quarter GDP figures to be revised up towards ten per cent, and full-year growth could be close to nine per cent.
The latest figures are advance estimates for real GDP -- growth adjusted for inflation -- and computed largely from July and August data. More detailed figures are to be released in November.
GDP is the value of all goods and services produced in the country.
Singapore's economy grew 7.9 per cent last year, one of the fastest rates in Asia. - AFP/ac
SINGAPORE: Singapore's economy powered to 9.4 per cent growth in the third quarter, within market forecasts, putting it on track to meet the government's full-year targets, the trade ministry said on Wednesday.
Gross domestic product grew 9.4 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier, the ministry said. That followed a revised 8.7 per cent expansion in GDP during the second quarter, it said.
Economists were expecting third-quarter growth of between nine and ten per cent.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis, real GDP growth slowed to 6.4 per cent from 14.4 per cent in the second quarter, the trade ministry said.
"The Singapore economy continued to register strong growth in the third quarter of 2007," it said in a press release, adding the economy "is well on track" to meet full-year growth targets.
In August, the government raised its full-year growth target to between 7.0 and 8.0 per cent after better-than-expected second-quarter expansion.
The trade ministry said third-quarter growth in the manufacturing sector reached an estimated 12.3 per cent, up from 8.3 per cent in the preceding quarter. It said manufacturing growth was underpinned by the biomedical sector and transport engineering, which includes oil rigs and ships.
Growth in the construction sector is estimated to have eased to 15.5 per cent compared with 18.8 per cent last quarter, while the services sector expanded an estimated 8.1 per cent, against 8.4 per cent in the second quarter, MTI said.
Action Economics chief economist David Cohen said there was some moderation from the second quarter but year-on-year growth picked up. "It's still a solid growth," he said.
Singapore is undergoing a property and construction boom, with cranes towering over the skyline.
The positive outlook for both the construction and manufacturing sectors could push the city-state's GDP expansion above the government's official targets, to 8.3 per cent for the year, Cohen said.
Despite a recent crisis in the US "sub-prime" mortgage sector and fears of a slowing US economy, Cohen said the third-quarter data reflected continued momentum in Singapore.
Song Seng Wun, regional economist at CIMB-GK securities, said on local radio that he expects the third-quarter GDP figures to be revised up towards ten per cent, and full-year growth could be close to nine per cent.
The latest figures are advance estimates for real GDP -- growth adjusted for inflation -- and computed largely from July and August data. More detailed figures are to be released in November.
GDP is the value of all goods and services produced in the country.
Singapore's economy grew 7.9 per cent last year, one of the fastest rates in Asia. - AFP/ac
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
CIMB: Lian Beng Group TP $0.89
Singapore's Lian Beng Group target price raised to 0.89 sgd - CIMB-GK
10/9/2007 2:47:00 PM
SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - CIMB-GK Research said Tuesday it has lifted its target price for Lian Beng Group to 89 cents from 77 cents after the construction company and property developer secured a 200 million Singapore dollar contract to build a residential condominium project, bringing the group's order book to 575 million dollars.
At the same time, Lian Beng is taking a 20 percent stake in a project in northeastern Singapore, enabling it to benefit from rising residential property prices in suburban areas, the brokerage said.
"We are upgrading our 2008-2010 earnings estimates by 12-29 percent to account for the project. Due to a current shortage of contractors, Lian Beng can afford to be selective on projects and remains well positioned to clinch new contracts with better margins," CIMB-GK said in a note to clients.
The brokerage said it expects Lian Beng's net profit in in the year to May 2008 to more than triple to 15.50 million dollars from 4.4 million dollars in the previous year. Earnings will be bolstered by its strong order book, improving margins, recognition of profits from property developments and new integrated resort contracts.
At 2.35 pm (0635 GMT), Lian Beng shares were up 1.5 cents or 2.6 percent at 59.5 cents with 15.54 million shares traded.
10/9/2007 2:47:00 PM
SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - CIMB-GK Research said Tuesday it has lifted its target price for Lian Beng Group to 89 cents from 77 cents after the construction company and property developer secured a 200 million Singapore dollar contract to build a residential condominium project, bringing the group's order book to 575 million dollars.
At the same time, Lian Beng is taking a 20 percent stake in a project in northeastern Singapore, enabling it to benefit from rising residential property prices in suburban areas, the brokerage said.
"We are upgrading our 2008-2010 earnings estimates by 12-29 percent to account for the project. Due to a current shortage of contractors, Lian Beng can afford to be selective on projects and remains well positioned to clinch new contracts with better margins," CIMB-GK said in a note to clients.
The brokerage said it expects Lian Beng's net profit in in the year to May 2008 to more than triple to 15.50 million dollars from 4.4 million dollars in the previous year. Earnings will be bolstered by its strong order book, improving margins, recognition of profits from property developments and new integrated resort contracts.
At 2.35 pm (0635 GMT), Lian Beng shares were up 1.5 cents or 2.6 percent at 59.5 cents with 15.54 million shares traded.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Singapore construction stocks mostly higher on sector's growth trajectory
Singapore construction stocks mostly higher on sector's growth trajectory UPDATE
10/4/2007 4:13:00 PM
SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - Shares of most Singapore construction companies were firmer Thursday, with the industry's uptrend expected to continue, supported by various aspects of economic growth.
The industry's bright prospects are not only due to the property boom increasing the amount of construction work.
"The industry has several powerful drivers, including population growth, economic restructuring to attract higher value-added industries, integrated resorts, the development of Singapore into a choice convention destination and the development of a wealth-management industry," CIMB-GK Research said in note to clients.
Singapore has plans to increase its population by 2 million to 6.5 million in the next 10-20 years.
"Population growth is an important driver for construction as housing, amenities, public and private infrastructure would have to keep up with population growth," CIMB-GK said.
For example, 3 billion Singapore dollars has already been set aside for road development to cater to the increased population, it said.
Other developments expected to spur construction activity are petrochemical investments on Jurong island and in Tuas, residential projects on Sentosa island and new sports facilities in Kallang.
As for the two casino resorts that are due to open by 2009 or 2010, CIMB-GK estimates about 21 million tonnes of construction materials will be transported while they are being built.
CIMB-GK is keeping its "overweight" call on the construction sector.
Its top picks are equipment-leasing company Tat Hong Holdings, crane and marine logistics company Tiong Woon Corp and building contractor Lian Beng Group.
Foreign brokerage Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, said it expects a re-rating on the Singapore construction sector "on increased visibility in cycle strength and sustainability, and positive newsflow on contract awards."
Goldman Sachs now expects construction spending in Singapore over the next few years to grow to 57 billion US dollars from its earlier estimate of 55 billion dollars.
"We think the underperformance of the sector relative to the market is unwarranted," Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Among its bets in the sector are specialist sub-contractors Tat Hong Holdings and Yongnam Holdings, noting that these two companies are well-positioned to ride the construction upcycle.
"A slew of contract awards over the next three to six months should provide further upside to the share prices of Singapore construction companies," Goldman Sachs said.
Mega projects such as the two integrated resorts being built -- the Marina Bay Sands and the Resorts World at Sentosa -- along with various infrastructure and residential projects in Singapore will boost the order book of construction firms, it said.
At 3.16 pm (0626 GMT), Tat Hong was up 3 Singapore cents at 2.44 dollars, Tiong Woon up 1 cent at 1.14 dollars and Lian Beng up 5.5 cents at 57 cents. Among other construction gainers, Yongnam Holdings was up 2 cents at 45 cents, CSC Holdings up 1 cent at 36.5 cents, Koh Brothers up 1.5 cents at 46.5 cents and Chip Eng Seng Corp up 1.5 cents at 82 cents.
10/4/2007 4:13:00 PM
SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - Shares of most Singapore construction companies were firmer Thursday, with the industry's uptrend expected to continue, supported by various aspects of economic growth.
The industry's bright prospects are not only due to the property boom increasing the amount of construction work.
"The industry has several powerful drivers, including population growth, economic restructuring to attract higher value-added industries, integrated resorts, the development of Singapore into a choice convention destination and the development of a wealth-management industry," CIMB-GK Research said in note to clients.
Singapore has plans to increase its population by 2 million to 6.5 million in the next 10-20 years.
"Population growth is an important driver for construction as housing, amenities, public and private infrastructure would have to keep up with population growth," CIMB-GK said.
For example, 3 billion Singapore dollars has already been set aside for road development to cater to the increased population, it said.
Other developments expected to spur construction activity are petrochemical investments on Jurong island and in Tuas, residential projects on Sentosa island and new sports facilities in Kallang.
As for the two casino resorts that are due to open by 2009 or 2010, CIMB-GK estimates about 21 million tonnes of construction materials will be transported while they are being built.
CIMB-GK is keeping its "overweight" call on the construction sector.
Its top picks are equipment-leasing company Tat Hong Holdings, crane and marine logistics company Tiong Woon Corp and building contractor Lian Beng Group.
Foreign brokerage Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, said it expects a re-rating on the Singapore construction sector "on increased visibility in cycle strength and sustainability, and positive newsflow on contract awards."
Goldman Sachs now expects construction spending in Singapore over the next few years to grow to 57 billion US dollars from its earlier estimate of 55 billion dollars.
"We think the underperformance of the sector relative to the market is unwarranted," Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Among its bets in the sector are specialist sub-contractors Tat Hong Holdings and Yongnam Holdings, noting that these two companies are well-positioned to ride the construction upcycle.
"A slew of contract awards over the next three to six months should provide further upside to the share prices of Singapore construction companies," Goldman Sachs said.
Mega projects such as the two integrated resorts being built -- the Marina Bay Sands and the Resorts World at Sentosa -- along with various infrastructure and residential projects in Singapore will boost the order book of construction firms, it said.
At 3.16 pm (0626 GMT), Tat Hong was up 3 Singapore cents at 2.44 dollars, Tiong Woon up 1 cent at 1.14 dollars and Lian Beng up 5.5 cents at 57 cents. Among other construction gainers, Yongnam Holdings was up 2 cents at 45 cents, CSC Holdings up 1 cent at 36.5 cents, Koh Brothers up 1.5 cents at 46.5 cents and Chip Eng Seng Corp up 1.5 cents at 82 cents.
曹仁超—投資者日記 投資精髓
24/05/10
25/05/09
以下十种有效工具，有助初学趋势投资法嘅读者：
一、每次升市领袖股都唔同。例如1998至2000年科网股，2003至2007年系国企股。如抱住过气领袖股不放，处境有如2009年5月嘅电盈（008）小股东。
二、创五十二周新高价嘅股份，通常可进一步睇好。
三、10天线同50天线系有用嘅trading工具。如10天线重返50天线之上，即短期内股价仍上升；反之如10天线跌穿50天线，都系小心D好。
四、二线股份出现连续强势数星期但指数却唔上升，小心调整市好快出现。
五、公布业绩后股价如上升10％（或以上），代表跌市方向改变；如公布业绩后股价急跌20％（或以上），亦代表上升方向已改变。
六、一隻股份大升后出现窄幅牛皮（例如喺10％内），代表另一次较大升幅将再出现。
七、拆细通常代表股价快见顶，合併代表股价快见底。拆细代表企业大股东欲出货，合併代表企业大股东欲收集。
八、大企业股价喺恶劣环境下可迅速回落。最愚蠢嘅投资系喺恶劣环境下买大企业股份〔最近例子例如喺2008年买滙控（005）〕。
九、股价走在消息之前三到六个月。唔好听消息去决定买卖，请追随趋势而非走势。利用timing买卖投资项目，而非评估该股嘅「价值」系多少。
十、响牛市中每次跌穿250天移动平均线乃入货讯号；喺熊市中每次升穿250天移动平均线系出货讯号。250天线唔系牛熊分界线；「黄金交叉」或「死亡交叉」乃用作印证牛市或熊市出现及死亡（準确度达93％）。牛熊观念来自道氏理论，相当复杂，并非一般人所讲咁简单。
2008年系最多投资者由价值投资法过渡到趋势投资法嘅一年（或叫Earnings Momentum Investing）。投资者再唔计较股票系咪「物有所值」，改為分析未来企业纯利前景，而决定现存趋势（trends）能否继续落去。简单D讲：一、该股未来一年纯利能否上升25％或以上？二、该公司有冇新產品或新服务，支持未来纯利上升？三、该股股价系咪较最低价最少上升25％？四、喺行业中系带头者抑或落后者？五、后市点睇？因75％股价升降受大市升降影响。
18/09/08
高盛经济学家简哈祖斯估计，旧年金融机构拨备8058亿元同埋集资3670亿美元，仍然唔足够。因为去杠杆化（ deleveraging ）已经开始，情况比九十年代初期储蓄和贷款亏损仲要大。好似美国国际集团今年6月30日止涉及慨的CDS金额高达4460亿美元，今年下半年亏损几多？联储局旧年有8000亿美元国库券，上周为止只剩低4800亿美元，其中2000亿美元已用作“有条件证券抵押” ，真正即时能够动用资金系2800亿元，今个礼拜再拨出850亿美元去挽救美国国际集团，即系家吓联储局可动用资金少于2000亿元。今个礼拜再向市场注资1000亿美元，即系下个礼拜开始联储局可动用资金已经唔足1000亿元，面对63万亿美元市值慨的CDS ， 1000亿美元可以做到D乜？从呢点睇局面只系暂时稳定落嚟，问题仍未彻底解决。
28/08/08
有读者打电话嚟问反弹同当头起有羊分别？
一、当头起升幅最少20%；
二、一浪高於一浪（即喺次低点才入市）；
三、50天移动平均线重返250天线之上；
四、当头起喺熊三出现后先出现（熊三P/E喺八至十二倍之间）。
利用上述几点分析依家嘅形势仍系熊二（因恒指P/E喺十二倍之上），理论上只有反弹而冇上升。客观形势系美国房地產状况喺度转坏紧。去年系防危机年，今年系小心谨慎年。
18/06/08
火冇氧氣便無法燃燒，泡沫冇流動性過剩亦脹唔起。金融信貸市場膨脹，大量信用被創造出來，支持泡沫一個接一個形成、膨脹及爆破，此乃格蛇上台後金融市場現象。
其次係「非理性亢奮」（Euphoria）出現，例如1989年「日本第一」論（日本人以為自己係全球第一）。去年10月港股直通車消息，將內地2008年8月北京奧運前過度樂觀、過分自信、過分高估前景而低估風險氣氛引入香港，即俗語所講「high high地！」都係泡沫爆破前現象，產生過度槓桿（over-leverage），一旦爆破，短期回落趨勢無法阻止。結束期，往往係投資者唔肯再參與而令成交萎縮。先「寧靜」才能「致遠」，即泡沫結束期股市將十分寧靜，進入寧靜期之前則必然有多次反彈，叫做牛陷阱（Bull traps）。狂牛往往極度熱鬧時死亡，而巨熊死前則好寧靜。
18/04/08
要喺投資市場賺錢，除咗須學曉good stock picks及time the market外，仲要嚴守紀律（止蝕唔止賺）。喺熊市一期，二線股跌幅最大；喺熊市二期，二線股反彈最乏力；但到熊市三期，二線股反而跌幅最細。喺熊市一期，大價股抗跌力最強；喺熊市二期，大價股反彈力最好；但到咗熊市三期，大價股跌幅反而最大。換言之，要到大價股急跌而二線股唔跌（或小跌），才係熊市三期，估計响今年第四季或明年第一季才出現。
15/03/08
投資策略可分為三大類：一、Value Investor。經深入了解基本因素後，挑選最值得投資企業，然後長線持有。二、Growth Investor。追求高增長，找尋明白之星，呢方面風險較大，不過一旦買中，利潤極之可觀。第三類係學momentum技巧。利用技術分析，捕捉大市高低點。
13/03/08
去年11月至今年1月只係完成熊市第一期（獲利回吐期），之後係熊市第二期（炒上落市），最後才係熊市第三期（惡性拋售）。熊市二期一般較熊市一期長（即唔止三個月）。
18/02/2008
投資策略已改為點樣熊市中獲利，首先要改變係自己邏輯思維。例如從熊市角度睇大勢而唔再係牛市角度。牛市中，每次回落皆係技術調整，宜吸納；反之，熊市中每次反彈係技術調整，宜減持。牛市中，壞消息係入貨訊號；熊市中，好消息係出貨訊號（雖然恒生指數仍未確認熊市，根據滯後效應，一旦美股確認熊市，港股進入熊市只係時間問題）。「Think like a bear」，講就易，做就難
01/02/2008
智者看其因，愚者看其果；聰明人研究點解別人會發達，愚蠢人羨慕別人發達。如你因熊市而唔投資，你便較別人慢30％（因股票市場有30％時間係熊市）。正確態度係應收起牛心態，改用熊心態，例如首重保本，次而捕捉逆市之升（星），最高層次係玩Put甚至玩期指（必須非常專業）。
28/01/2008
留意趨勢改變，才能了解市場方向。如冇基礎分析、市場心理學做背景，單憑技術分析，成功機會有幾大？我老曹未見過一個富翁係走勢派信徒。換言之，走勢只能用作輔助，不應作為主要分析工具。走勢最好用作確認自己分析趨勢方向係咪正確。The trend is your best friend, not chart！
07/01/2008
高盛估計，2015年中國GDP將超過日本，2041年後過埋美國，成為全球最大經濟實體。印度將2032年超過日本，成為全球第二大經濟實體。四十年內金磚國GDP將超過七大工業國（OECD）；二十年內金磚國內將有二億人口人均收入超過1.5萬美元，相等於整個西歐（法國、德國、意大利同英國加起來）。戰後意大利、法國、英國工業走向沒落，地位被日本及亞洲四小龍取代；今天日本同亞洲四小龍工業地位又被新興工業國（尤其中國同印度）取代。上述報告唔係2007年寫成，而係2003年，過去五年已證明正確，相信未來二十年亦都正確。成長過程中難免出現困難，但長遠睇仍樂觀。以周期睇，2008年係四大金磚國進入青黃不接期，經濟可能出現短期調整，但不應退出，反而係進入四大金磚國良好機會。
03/01/2008
- 專業如畢非德手上永遠有現金,（已故新地主席郭得勝老先生教落：三七分──即睇好時七成貨、三成現金；睇淡時三成貨、七成現金.
- 記住止蝕唔止賺，每次將虧損局限15％至20％，讓利潤往前跑乃投資必守戒條。專業投資者係計算自己可以輸幾多，而非自己應該賺幾多。
- 改善投資回報十大要訣
2008年如何改善你投資回報？
一、股市權威說話可聽不可信，聽完佢地說話後，記得返屋企做功課，唔好盲目相信。
二、Trading唔係投資。Trading同投資股票唔同，你並冇擁有該公司，只希望價位上落中獲利，因此唔好將唔成功trading變成投資，請嚴守止蝕。
三、勝敗乃兵家常事，蝕本離場有何可恥？唔係每單trade都要賺錢離場。
四、唔好望打和、唔好追落後，溝上唔溝落。Trading有虧損便應止蝕離場，然後重新再開始。
五、世上冇必勝投資，嚴守紀律者才可輸少贏多。
六、唔好追隨群眾，佢地常常犯錯。人人都知所謂好消息，本身已係壞消息（Too good to be true!）。
七、唔好忽略警告訊號，唔好等沉船時才去搵救生艇。
八、未離場前唔好計自己賺幾多。
九、炒股票唔似打工，不應月月出糧，一年做兩、三單大deal已足夠。
十、EYF（享受你失敗）。失敗係最好老師。不如意事十常八九，十單買賣中八、九單蝕本亦唔奇，只要一兩單贏得十分大便可。Trading唔係周末度假團，而係漱口、洗面、擦牙，必須天天關注才做得好。
最出色trader已唔使睇圖表，而係靠本能反應，你已做到咩？
27/12/2007
- pick the good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies！
- 四十多年前巴郡只係一間紡織廠，年賺4.5萬美元。畢非德獲控制權後將紡織廠關掉，資金用作投資一間保險公司GEICO，年賺460萬美元，即一下子令巴郡純利上升十倍！保險公司賺回來錢用作收購時思糖果（See's Candies），係一間生產朱古力、賺錢能力好強公司；再將賺回來錢用作吸納可口可樂。可口可樂派息用作購買美國運通，然後吉列刀片……。結果巴郡股價上升5576％，最近十年亦上升482％。乜令巴郡股價上升？答案係純利增長。2000年至今道指升幅有限，但石油股、能源股、金礦股及資源股平均上升401％（高潮2006年），同期巴郡升幅亦只有100％。換言之，所謂Midas Touch就係找出邊D公司未來純利可大升，就係咁簡單。
21/12/2007
明年投資策略：保本為主，增值為次。揀股為主，唔好過分注重timing。唔好聽信謠言，多做功課──分析個別股份而非猜測股市方向，唔識則最好唔做。 值得注意係，羅素二千指數（細價股指數）上升軌失守【圖二】，即唔止大企業股價紛紛見頂二線股亦唔例外。2005年7月開始細價股上升潮會否亦告一段落？睇明年認真搵食艱難。
20/12/2007
追隨趨勢，尋找D純利進入高增長期股份，才係最佳投資策略。股市內悲劇係大部分投資者皆忽略趨勢，只睇走勢，往往賺粒糖、輸間廠。2008年做個trend-rider及earning-seeker。
14/12/2007
根據吳起兵法：一戰而勝之兵乃勤於操練之兵；二戰而勝之兵乃最可用之兵（已有一定經驗）；三戰而勝之兵乃驕兵，小心驕兵必敗；四戰而勝之兵，乃應解甲歸田之兵；五戰而勝之兵，乃一敗塗地之兵。
2004年我老曹初試牛刀，利用牛眼投資法選股，過去四年成績不俗，大部分回報率超過100％。今年我老曹已係四戰而勝之兵，明年應否歸甲解田，以免勝利沖昏頭腦而一敗塗地？所謂用兵之道兵貴神速，速戰速決，有機會便全力進軍，最短時間內賺取最大利潤，然後又頭岳岳。
投資二線股，嚴格D講一年已太長，將目光放三至六個月後，即每次投資目標係三至六個月內賺取50-100％回報。利用行業分析（Asset and Sector Allocation Model）作為找尋投資項目，更深一層分析可用Comparison Model去分析行業內邊D股份最好（未必每次都係龍頭股）。上述投資法叫做Target investment，無論牛熊市都適用，目的係三到六個月內追求50％到100％回報。
10/12/2007
今年另一成功策略就係「牛眼投資法」，發明者係John Mauldin，並2004年出書推介。我老曹係最先向香港讀者推介呢個方法作者，並由2004年起採用佢方法。利用牛眼投資法係每年追求「三位數字」（即100％）或以上回報。牛眼投資法第一步係「Invest like a venture capitalist」，即專攻二線股，事前做足搜集工夫，搵出邊D行業正進入起飛期或轉虧為盈期。牛眼投資法較適合散戶採用，但必須自己做足功課，千萬不可跟我老曹買，因為專家如David Webb 去年聖誕前推介股份，今年恒生指數大升40％環境下仍跌27％；世上並冇必殺技也！作為venture capitalist，就係當一間企業開始轉虧為盈時立即介入，而非等到人人叫好時才介入。Early bird catches the worms，又或者投資D引入創新意念企業，最典型例子係呢幾年蘋果引入iPod後再引入iPhone，令蘋果股價由5美元升上180美元！
08/12/2007
投資者重保本接受低利率
我老曹經歷咁多，能夠學到，就係無論發生乜事，保持頭腦冷靜最重要，其次係sustain power。1974年雖然損失慘重，但仍有10萬元資產在手，可以生存落去；1982至84年已懂得唔去盡好處，守得雲開見月明；1987年學曉逃避風險，其餘1993、97及2000年皆巧妙地避過。好好控制自己的貪婪及恐懼感，唔少金融危機其實係可以逃避，例如1987年股災前期指炒賣、1997年前樓市瘋狂表現、2000年非理性科網股泡沫。面對A股熱潮引發H股9月、10月狂升，只要唔太貪，問題唔大。至於美國次按危機去年下半年已浮現，只係一般人視而不見，估計重整需時（例如兩到四年），只要避開，問題亦唔大。次按危機對全球金融市場影響係點？有待觀察，相信最終可解決。展望明年全球經濟再次陷入滯脹期，股市將上落數番，並出現大量Deep V。今天二年期債券孳息率只有2.9厘，重返2004年6月聯儲局開始加息期水平（當年聯邦基金利率只有1厘）；十年期債券亦只有3.9厘，係2004年3月以來最低！點解投資者願意接受咁低利率？代表保本愈來愈重要也！
13/11/07
今年9月中出版《論勢》最近第八版已出售，反應之佳出乎我老曹意料，不但如此，亦獲唔少同業好評。我老曹在此多謝各位同業，亦不妨同大家分享一下自己心路歷程。我老曹活到今天快六十歲，對未來已唔再抱幻想，好多事物已經歷過，進入淡然以對心情（可以講衰已衰過，威亦威過）。我老曹今天一把年紀，仍常問自己：人生意義係乜？依家心境雖然平靜，卻未能忘懷少年時喪父之痛，種挫折感真係一生難忘。經過四十年努力，財富上獲得良多，回首其他方面失去更多。眼見詹瑞文兄同女兒快樂相處，撫心自問，我老曹兒女成長過程大部分由太太負責，佢地擁有只係一個工作狂爸爸；幸好太太體諒，我老曹今天仍有一個快樂家庭，唔少朋友事業成功，換可能只係一個破碎家庭。相信係我老曹少年時貧窮，造成自己追求財富性格。《論勢》一書出版目的，唔係教各位多D搵錢方法，而係希望讀者追求財富與快樂人生之間，達致一個平衡點。做個富爸爸同時做個笑爸爸，令自己下一代自己歡笑中成長。財富易得，快樂難求，希望大家不但搵到財富，同時搵到快樂。
25/10/2007
小投資者常犯錯誤：
一、睇市唔睇股。
8月17日至今恒生指數已上升50％，主因係8月20日中央宣布批准港股直通車，令中字派股份價格上升100％。呢段日子，唔少股份卻毫無升幅可言（甚至回落）；我老曹講十年以上炒股唔睇市，但仍然有咁多人犯錯。
二、唔理會宏觀經濟。例如1984年中英聯合聲明「草簽」中講明限制香港政府每年賣地五十公頃到1997年6月30日止。呢段日子，本港地價、樓價大升，但好多人卻唔曉投資房地產；到1997年7月1日「八萬五」政策出台，更加多人唔識避。2003年9月「孫九招」面世，好多人仍然問後市樓價點睇？2007年開始，美國有七千七百萬人按年進入六十五歲退休期，佔總人口25％，好多人仍然唔信美股2007年見頂（一如1990年唔信日股見頂一樣）。
三、泡沫形成初期散戶怕得要死，泡沫維持一段日子後，散戶卻忘記風險。大部分泡沫由形成到爆破通常歷時三年（例如1998年科網股，到2000年3月爆破）。內地A股由2005年年中開始上升，2007年下半年亦踏入第三年，即係已進入令人擔心時刻。我老曹亦曾犯過呢D錯誤，例如1973年1月恒指見1200點已睇淡，結果三個月內恒指升上1700點，即再升50％。1974年7月恒指見450點便睇好，但大市再跌多半年，1974年12月跌至150點才改變方向。太早睇淡或太早睇好都係死罪，Timing is everything。
四、不分行業全面睇好或睇淡。例如能源、金融、製造業、地產、航運業、原材料、資訊科技業，唔同行業有本身盛衰循環周期，不應一概而論。2003年至今地產、金融、能源、航運等行業表現不俗，但製造業卻在叫救命！2007年7月1日前後，中央政府取消大量產品出口退稅，鋼鐵股、鋁業股等應受打擊。
五、人云亦云，欠缺獨立思考能力，忘記20╱80定律（社會上只有20％人口成功）。如果你睇法獲得唔少朋友支持，請放棄。因為贏家永遠係少數。
09/10/07
因此只有熊市將盡時才投資藍籌股，因為可提供100％利潤機會；牛市將盡時，例如家便改為70％現金，30％投資細價股，因為只有細價股才可提供100％或以上利潤機會.
05/10/07
唔係所有二線股都可以快高長大成為明日藍籌股，因此必須嚴守止蝕唔止賺策略。可以改變你一生命運係二線股（明日藍籌股），唔係今天藍籌股，策略係「狠、忍、準」，一旦睇得準，便要忍，一如鯊魚（死咬住唔放）般狠！
呢個世界有兩類投資法：第一類叫Value Investing (價值投資法）﹐投資者努力找尋偏低股份，或熊市將完成時入市，耐心等候股價重返合理水平，或牛市將盡時獲利回吐。第二類係搵Growth Stock 即找尋增長股，搵出邊D股份未來幾年每年純利可上升25％或以上，透過企業增長而令股價大幅上升。1997年7月前香港經濟處於高增長期（1967至97年黃金三十年），股票市場內充滿增長股。1997年後香港大部分股份變成價值股（Value Stock），即利用行業盛衰產生一起一落從中獲利
賺錢只係一種技能，透過學習再獲得，而非乜天分。只要有足夠動力，加上一定的努力便可獲得。賺錢主要透過智慧而非勤力，例如在每一次失敗經驗中吸取精華，重新站起來再嘗試，唔需要特別聰明或特別勤奮甚至特別幸運。例如你有冇耐性等候一個機會出現？有冇學曉止蝕唔止賺？或靜靜地等候財富自動增加？
我老曹運用移動平均數已有35年歷史。我老曹一再強調，移動平均線理論中並冇牛、熊市，牛、熊市係根據道氏理論，即牛市分三期、熊市分三期，呢個已係1900年前理論，近代已被人一再質疑。現代經濟咁複雜，股市係咪仲存在牛、熊市？大量國企來港上市後，本港股市對房地產依賴漸減，牛、熊市理論係咪仲有價值？過去35年我老曹研究移動平均線經驗係：
A、牛市一期恒生指數唔會跌穿250天線。
B、牛市二期恒生指數經常跌穿250天線，每次跌穿250天移動平均線不但唔係出貨訊號，反而係入貨訊號。
C、只有牛市三期恒生指數跌穿250天線，才係牛市死亡訊號。
結合道氏理論如下：
A、牛市一期O8至12倍時，恒指應唔會跌穿 250天線。
B、牛市二期O12到16倍，恒指跌穿250天線係入貨訊號。
C、牛市三期O18到22倍，跌穿250天線才應小心。
1997年8月同2000年3月恒指O都22倍以上，牛市三期十分明顯。2003年4月恒指回升至今，未見O22倍以上（反之，國企指數已在22倍之上，國企股已進入牛市三期，即瘋狂上升期，開始唱《夕陽之歌》）。後市展望，股市繼續swings，投資策略係：你驚我唔驚，你唔驚我驚。
世上没有赢梗的投资
投资者常犯错误：
1。 投资ABC股赢梗。世上没有一项投资可以赢梗；愈是「热门股」，愈代表该股「overvalued」。在过度超买时吸纳，如何赚钱？例如 1997年上海实业（363）、北控（392）连上市申请表格亦炒到500元一张。2000年TOM仔上市，连纹身大只佬都到旺角汇丰银行排队。
2。 好多人质疑市况太差，点买股票？生于忧患，死于逸乐。事后往往证明在市况差时，才是买股票好时机。
3。 大行推介跑赢大市？事实证明由有名气大行管理的投资组合，大部分均跑输大市。请看看金融海啸中所谓大行的投资组合表现如何？
4。 分散投资可逃避风险。事实证明持有五十只劣质股不如持有一只优质股。分散投资只是分散自己的注意力。
5。 许多人有1万元赚而急急获利。结果赢粒糖、输间厂。如你的投资刚上升10％，应该进一步买入而非获利回吐。千万不要为眼前1万元利润而放弃未来赚大钱的机会。
如要投资成功：A。 自己作决定，不要盲目相信投资专家或股票经纪。B。 学习管钱。C。 大部分离岸产品皆没有投资价值，但有少数例外。D。 大 部分结构性产品皆隐藏风险，如自己不了解少沾手为佳。E。 不要期望证监可以保护你，证监的作用有如jc（贼过之后，jc才出现），在你被打劫之时，jc 往往不知在何方。F。 不作投资不会死人，盲目投资却可以死人。
25/05/09
以下十种有效工具，有助初学趋势投资法嘅读者：
一、每次升市领袖股都唔同。例如1998至2000年科网股，2003至2007年系国企股。如抱住过气领袖股不放，处境有如2009年5月嘅电盈（008）小股东。
二、创五十二周新高价嘅股份，通常可进一步睇好。
三、10天线同50天线系有用嘅trading工具。如10天线重返50天线之上，即短期内股价仍上升；反之如10天线跌穿50天线，都系小心D好。
四、二线股份出现连续强势数星期但指数却唔上升，小心调整市好快出现。
五、公布业绩后股价如上升10％（或以上），代表跌市方向改变；如公布业绩后股价急跌20％（或以上），亦代表上升方向已改变。
六、一隻股份大升后出现窄幅牛皮（例如喺10％内），代表另一次较大升幅将再出现。
七、拆细通常代表股价快见顶，合併代表股价快见底。拆细代表企业大股东欲出货，合併代表企业大股东欲收集。
八、大企业股价喺恶劣环境下可迅速回落。最愚蠢嘅投资系喺恶劣环境下买大企业股份〔最近例子例如喺2008年买滙控（005）〕。
九、股价走在消息之前三到六个月。唔好听消息去决定买卖，请追随趋势而非走势。利用timing买卖投资项目，而非评估该股嘅「价值」系多少。
十、响牛市中每次跌穿250天移动平均线乃入货讯号；喺熊市中每次升穿250天移动平均线系出货讯号。250天线唔系牛熊分界线；「黄金交叉」或「死亡交叉」乃用作印证牛市或熊市出现及死亡（準确度达93％）。牛熊观念来自道氏理论，相当复杂，并非一般人所讲咁简单。
2008年系最多投资者由价值投资法过渡到趋势投资法嘅一年（或叫Earnings Momentum Investing）。投资者再唔计较股票系咪「物有所值」，改為分析未来企业纯利前景，而决定现存趋势（trends）能否继续落去。简单D讲：一、该股未来一年纯利能否上升25％或以上？二、该公司有冇新產品或新服务，支持未来纯利上升？三、该股股价系咪较最低价最少上升25％？四、喺行业中系带头者抑或落后者？五、后市点睇？因75％股价升降受大市升降影响。
18/09/08
高盛经济学家简哈祖斯估计，旧年金融机构拨备8058亿元同埋集资3670亿美元，仍然唔足够。因为去杠杆化（ deleveraging ）已经开始，情况比九十年代初期储蓄和贷款亏损仲要大。好似美国国际集团今年6月30日止涉及慨的CDS金额高达4460亿美元，今年下半年亏损几多？联储局旧年有8000亿美元国库券，上周为止只剩低4800亿美元，其中2000亿美元已用作“有条件证券抵押” ，真正即时能够动用资金系2800亿元，今个礼拜再拨出850亿美元去挽救美国国际集团，即系家吓联储局可动用资金少于2000亿元。今个礼拜再向市场注资1000亿美元，即系下个礼拜开始联储局可动用资金已经唔足1000亿元，面对63万亿美元市值慨的CDS ， 1000亿美元可以做到D乜？从呢点睇局面只系暂时稳定落嚟，问题仍未彻底解决。
28/08/08
有读者打电话嚟问反弹同当头起有羊分别？
一、当头起升幅最少20%；
二、一浪高於一浪（即喺次低点才入市）；
三、50天移动平均线重返250天线之上；
四、当头起喺熊三出现后先出现（熊三P/E喺八至十二倍之间）。
利用上述几点分析依家嘅形势仍系熊二（因恒指P/E喺十二倍之上），理论上只有反弹而冇上升。客观形势系美国房地產状况喺度转坏紧。去年系防危机年，今年系小心谨慎年。
18/06/08
火冇氧氣便無法燃燒，泡沫冇流動性過剩亦脹唔起。金融信貸市場膨脹，大量信用被創造出來，支持泡沫一個接一個形成、膨脹及爆破，此乃格蛇上台後金融市場現象。
其次係「非理性亢奮」（Euphoria）出現，例如1989年「日本第一」論（日本人以為自己係全球第一）。去年10月港股直通車消息，將內地2008年8月北京奧運前過度樂觀、過分自信、過分高估前景而低估風險氣氛引入香港，即俗語所講「high high地！」都係泡沫爆破前現象，產生過度槓桿（over-leverage），一旦爆破，短期回落趨勢無法阻止。結束期，往往係投資者唔肯再參與而令成交萎縮。先「寧靜」才能「致遠」，即泡沫結束期股市將十分寧靜，進入寧靜期之前則必然有多次反彈，叫做牛陷阱（Bull traps）。狂牛往往極度熱鬧時死亡，而巨熊死前則好寧靜。
18/04/08
要喺投資市場賺錢，除咗須學曉good stock picks及time the market外，仲要嚴守紀律（止蝕唔止賺）。喺熊市一期，二線股跌幅最大；喺熊市二期，二線股反彈最乏力；但到熊市三期，二線股反而跌幅最細。喺熊市一期，大價股抗跌力最強；喺熊市二期，大價股反彈力最好；但到咗熊市三期，大價股跌幅反而最大。換言之，要到大價股急跌而二線股唔跌（或小跌），才係熊市三期，估計响今年第四季或明年第一季才出現。
15/03/08
投資策略可分為三大類：一、Value Investor。經深入了解基本因素後，挑選最值得投資企業，然後長線持有。二、Growth Investor。追求高增長，找尋明白之星，呢方面風險較大，不過一旦買中，利潤極之可觀。第三類係學momentum技巧。利用技術分析，捕捉大市高低點。
13/03/08
去年11月至今年1月只係完成熊市第一期（獲利回吐期），之後係熊市第二期（炒上落市），最後才係熊市第三期（惡性拋售）。熊市二期一般較熊市一期長（即唔止三個月）。
18/02/2008
投資策略已改為點樣熊市中獲利，首先要改變係自己邏輯思維。例如從熊市角度睇大勢而唔再係牛市角度。牛市中，每次回落皆係技術調整，宜吸納；反之，熊市中每次反彈係技術調整，宜減持。牛市中，壞消息係入貨訊號；熊市中，好消息係出貨訊號（雖然恒生指數仍未確認熊市，根據滯後效應，一旦美股確認熊市，港股進入熊市只係時間問題）。「Think like a bear」，講就易，做就難
01/02/2008
智者看其因，愚者看其果；聰明人研究點解別人會發達，愚蠢人羨慕別人發達。如你因熊市而唔投資，你便較別人慢30％（因股票市場有30％時間係熊市）。正確態度係應收起牛心態，改用熊心態，例如首重保本，次而捕捉逆市之升（星），最高層次係玩Put甚至玩期指（必須非常專業）。
28/01/2008
留意趨勢改變，才能了解市場方向。如冇基礎分析、市場心理學做背景，單憑技術分析，成功機會有幾大？我老曹未見過一個富翁係走勢派信徒。換言之，走勢只能用作輔助，不應作為主要分析工具。走勢最好用作確認自己分析趨勢方向係咪正確。The trend is your best friend, not chart！
07/01/2008
高盛估計，2015年中國GDP將超過日本，2041年後過埋美國，成為全球最大經濟實體。印度將2032年超過日本，成為全球第二大經濟實體。四十年內金磚國GDP將超過七大工業國（OECD）；二十年內金磚國內將有二億人口人均收入超過1.5萬美元，相等於整個西歐（法國、德國、意大利同英國加起來）。戰後意大利、法國、英國工業走向沒落，地位被日本及亞洲四小龍取代；今天日本同亞洲四小龍工業地位又被新興工業國（尤其中國同印度）取代。上述報告唔係2007年寫成，而係2003年，過去五年已證明正確，相信未來二十年亦都正確。成長過程中難免出現困難，但長遠睇仍樂觀。以周期睇，2008年係四大金磚國進入青黃不接期，經濟可能出現短期調整，但不應退出，反而係進入四大金磚國良好機會。
03/01/2008
- 專業如畢非德手上永遠有現金,（已故新地主席郭得勝老先生教落：三七分──即睇好時七成貨、三成現金；睇淡時三成貨、七成現金.
- 記住止蝕唔止賺，每次將虧損局限15％至20％，讓利潤往前跑乃投資必守戒條。專業投資者係計算自己可以輸幾多，而非自己應該賺幾多。
- 改善投資回報十大要訣
2008年如何改善你投資回報？
一、股市權威說話可聽不可信，聽完佢地說話後，記得返屋企做功課，唔好盲目相信。
二、Trading唔係投資。Trading同投資股票唔同，你並冇擁有該公司，只希望價位上落中獲利，因此唔好將唔成功trading變成投資，請嚴守止蝕。
三、勝敗乃兵家常事，蝕本離場有何可恥？唔係每單trade都要賺錢離場。
四、唔好望打和、唔好追落後，溝上唔溝落。Trading有虧損便應止蝕離場，然後重新再開始。
五、世上冇必勝投資，嚴守紀律者才可輸少贏多。
六、唔好追隨群眾，佢地常常犯錯。人人都知所謂好消息，本身已係壞消息（Too good to be true!）。
七、唔好忽略警告訊號，唔好等沉船時才去搵救生艇。
八、未離場前唔好計自己賺幾多。
九、炒股票唔似打工，不應月月出糧，一年做兩、三單大deal已足夠。
十、EYF（享受你失敗）。失敗係最好老師。不如意事十常八九，十單買賣中八、九單蝕本亦唔奇，只要一兩單贏得十分大便可。Trading唔係周末度假團，而係漱口、洗面、擦牙，必須天天關注才做得好。
最出色trader已唔使睇圖表，而係靠本能反應，你已做到咩？
27/12/2007
- pick the good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies！
- 四十多年前巴郡只係一間紡織廠，年賺4.5萬美元。畢非德獲控制權後將紡織廠關掉，資金用作投資一間保險公司GEICO，年賺460萬美元，即一下子令巴郡純利上升十倍！保險公司賺回來錢用作收購時思糖果（See's Candies），係一間生產朱古力、賺錢能力好強公司；再將賺回來錢用作吸納可口可樂。可口可樂派息用作購買美國運通，然後吉列刀片……。結果巴郡股價上升5576％，最近十年亦上升482％。乜令巴郡股價上升？答案係純利增長。2000年至今道指升幅有限，但石油股、能源股、金礦股及資源股平均上升401％（高潮2006年），同期巴郡升幅亦只有100％。換言之，所謂Midas Touch就係找出邊D公司未來純利可大升，就係咁簡單。
21/12/2007
明年投資策略：保本為主，增值為次。揀股為主，唔好過分注重timing。唔好聽信謠言，多做功課──分析個別股份而非猜測股市方向，唔識則最好唔做。 值得注意係，羅素二千指數（細價股指數）上升軌失守【圖二】，即唔止大企業股價紛紛見頂二線股亦唔例外。2005年7月開始細價股上升潮會否亦告一段落？睇明年認真搵食艱難。
20/12/2007
追隨趨勢，尋找D純利進入高增長期股份，才係最佳投資策略。股市內悲劇係大部分投資者皆忽略趨勢，只睇走勢，往往賺粒糖、輸間廠。2008年做個trend-rider及earning-seeker。
14/12/2007
根據吳起兵法：一戰而勝之兵乃勤於操練之兵；二戰而勝之兵乃最可用之兵（已有一定經驗）；三戰而勝之兵乃驕兵，小心驕兵必敗；四戰而勝之兵，乃應解甲歸田之兵；五戰而勝之兵，乃一敗塗地之兵。
2004年我老曹初試牛刀，利用牛眼投資法選股，過去四年成績不俗，大部分回報率超過100％。今年我老曹已係四戰而勝之兵，明年應否歸甲解田，以免勝利沖昏頭腦而一敗塗地？所謂用兵之道兵貴神速，速戰速決，有機會便全力進軍，最短時間內賺取最大利潤，然後又頭岳岳。
投資二線股，嚴格D講一年已太長，將目光放三至六個月後，即每次投資目標係三至六個月內賺取50-100％回報。利用行業分析（Asset and Sector Allocation Model）作為找尋投資項目，更深一層分析可用Comparison Model去分析行業內邊D股份最好（未必每次都係龍頭股）。上述投資法叫做Target investment，無論牛熊市都適用，目的係三到六個月內追求50％到100％回報。
10/12/2007
今年另一成功策略就係「牛眼投資法」，發明者係John Mauldin，並2004年出書推介。我老曹係最先向香港讀者推介呢個方法作者，並由2004年起採用佢方法。利用牛眼投資法係每年追求「三位數字」（即100％）或以上回報。牛眼投資法第一步係「Invest like a venture capitalist」，即專攻二線股，事前做足搜集工夫，搵出邊D行業正進入起飛期或轉虧為盈期。牛眼投資法較適合散戶採用，但必須自己做足功課，千萬不可跟我老曹買，因為專家如David Webb 去年聖誕前推介股份，今年恒生指數大升40％環境下仍跌27％；世上並冇必殺技也！作為venture capitalist，就係當一間企業開始轉虧為盈時立即介入，而非等到人人叫好時才介入。Early bird catches the worms，又或者投資D引入創新意念企業，最典型例子係呢幾年蘋果引入iPod後再引入iPhone，令蘋果股價由5美元升上180美元！
08/12/2007
投資者重保本接受低利率
我老曹經歷咁多，能夠學到，就係無論發生乜事，保持頭腦冷靜最重要，其次係sustain power。1974年雖然損失慘重，但仍有10萬元資產在手，可以生存落去；1982至84年已懂得唔去盡好處，守得雲開見月明；1987年學曉逃避風險，其餘1993、97及2000年皆巧妙地避過。好好控制自己的貪婪及恐懼感，唔少金融危機其實係可以逃避，例如1987年股災前期指炒賣、1997年前樓市瘋狂表現、2000年非理性科網股泡沫。面對A股熱潮引發H股9月、10月狂升，只要唔太貪，問題唔大。至於美國次按危機去年下半年已浮現，只係一般人視而不見，估計重整需時（例如兩到四年），只要避開，問題亦唔大。次按危機對全球金融市場影響係點？有待觀察，相信最終可解決。展望明年全球經濟再次陷入滯脹期，股市將上落數番，並出現大量Deep V。今天二年期債券孳息率只有2.9厘，重返2004年6月聯儲局開始加息期水平（當年聯邦基金利率只有1厘）；十年期債券亦只有3.9厘，係2004年3月以來最低！點解投資者願意接受咁低利率？代表保本愈來愈重要也！
13/11/07
今年9月中出版《論勢》最近第八版已出售，反應之佳出乎我老曹意料，不但如此，亦獲唔少同業好評。我老曹在此多謝各位同業，亦不妨同大家分享一下自己心路歷程。我老曹活到今天快六十歲，對未來已唔再抱幻想，好多事物已經歷過，進入淡然以對心情（可以講衰已衰過，威亦威過）。我老曹今天一把年紀，仍常問自己：人生意義係乜？依家心境雖然平靜，卻未能忘懷少年時喪父之痛，種挫折感真係一生難忘。經過四十年努力，財富上獲得良多，回首其他方面失去更多。眼見詹瑞文兄同女兒快樂相處，撫心自問，我老曹兒女成長過程大部分由太太負責，佢地擁有只係一個工作狂爸爸；幸好太太體諒，我老曹今天仍有一個快樂家庭，唔少朋友事業成功，換可能只係一個破碎家庭。相信係我老曹少年時貧窮，造成自己追求財富性格。《論勢》一書出版目的，唔係教各位多D搵錢方法，而係希望讀者追求財富與快樂人生之間，達致一個平衡點。做個富爸爸同時做個笑爸爸，令自己下一代自己歡笑中成長。財富易得，快樂難求，希望大家不但搵到財富，同時搵到快樂。
25/10/2007
小投資者常犯錯誤：
一、睇市唔睇股。
8月17日至今恒生指數已上升50％，主因係8月20日中央宣布批准港股直通車，令中字派股份價格上升100％。呢段日子，唔少股份卻毫無升幅可言（甚至回落）；我老曹講十年以上炒股唔睇市，但仍然有咁多人犯錯。
二、唔理會宏觀經濟。例如1984年中英聯合聲明「草簽」中講明限制香港政府每年賣地五十公頃到1997年6月30日止。呢段日子，本港地價、樓價大升，但好多人卻唔曉投資房地產；到1997年7月1日「八萬五」政策出台，更加多人唔識避。2003年9月「孫九招」面世，好多人仍然問後市樓價點睇？2007年開始，美國有七千七百萬人按年進入六十五歲退休期，佔總人口25％，好多人仍然唔信美股2007年見頂（一如1990年唔信日股見頂一樣）。
三、泡沫形成初期散戶怕得要死，泡沫維持一段日子後，散戶卻忘記風險。大部分泡沫由形成到爆破通常歷時三年（例如1998年科網股，到2000年3月爆破）。內地A股由2005年年中開始上升，2007年下半年亦踏入第三年，即係已進入令人擔心時刻。我老曹亦曾犯過呢D錯誤，例如1973年1月恒指見1200點已睇淡，結果三個月內恒指升上1700點，即再升50％。1974年7月恒指見450點便睇好，但大市再跌多半年，1974年12月跌至150點才改變方向。太早睇淡或太早睇好都係死罪，Timing is everything。
四、不分行業全面睇好或睇淡。例如能源、金融、製造業、地產、航運業、原材料、資訊科技業，唔同行業有本身盛衰循環周期，不應一概而論。2003年至今地產、金融、能源、航運等行業表現不俗，但製造業卻在叫救命！2007年7月1日前後，中央政府取消大量產品出口退稅，鋼鐵股、鋁業股等應受打擊。
五、人云亦云，欠缺獨立思考能力，忘記20╱80定律（社會上只有20％人口成功）。如果你睇法獲得唔少朋友支持，請放棄。因為贏家永遠係少數。
09/10/07
因此只有熊市將盡時才投資藍籌股，因為可提供100％利潤機會；牛市將盡時，例如家便改為70％現金，30％投資細價股，因為只有細價股才可提供100％或以上利潤機會.
05/10/07
唔係所有二線股都可以快高長大成為明日藍籌股，因此必須嚴守止蝕唔止賺策略。可以改變你一生命運係二線股（明日藍籌股），唔係今天藍籌股，策略係「狠、忍、準」，一旦睇得準，便要忍，一如鯊魚（死咬住唔放）般狠！
呢個世界有兩類投資法：第一類叫Value Investing (價值投資法）﹐投資者努力找尋偏低股份，或熊市將完成時入市，耐心等候股價重返合理水平，或牛市將盡時獲利回吐。第二類係搵Growth Stock 即找尋增長股，搵出邊D股份未來幾年每年純利可上升25％或以上，透過企業增長而令股價大幅上升。1997年7月前香港經濟處於高增長期（1967至97年黃金三十年），股票市場內充滿增長股。1997年後香港大部分股份變成價值股（Value Stock），即利用行業盛衰產生一起一落從中獲利
賺錢只係一種技能，透過學習再獲得，而非乜天分。只要有足夠動力，加上一定的努力便可獲得。賺錢主要透過智慧而非勤力，例如在每一次失敗經驗中吸取精華，重新站起來再嘗試，唔需要特別聰明或特別勤奮甚至特別幸運。例如你有冇耐性等候一個機會出現？有冇學曉止蝕唔止賺？或靜靜地等候財富自動增加？
我老曹運用移動平均數已有35年歷史。我老曹一再強調，移動平均線理論中並冇牛、熊市，牛、熊市係根據道氏理論，即牛市分三期、熊市分三期，呢個已係1900年前理論，近代已被人一再質疑。現代經濟咁複雜，股市係咪仲存在牛、熊市？大量國企來港上市後，本港股市對房地產依賴漸減，牛、熊市理論係咪仲有價值？過去35年我老曹研究移動平均線經驗係：
A、牛市一期恒生指數唔會跌穿250天線。
B、牛市二期恒生指數經常跌穿250天線，每次跌穿250天移動平均線不但唔係出貨訊號，反而係入貨訊號。
C、只有牛市三期恒生指數跌穿250天線，才係牛市死亡訊號。
結合道氏理論如下：
A、牛市一期O8至12倍時，恒指應唔會跌穿 250天線。
B、牛市二期O12到16倍，恒指跌穿250天線係入貨訊號。
C、牛市三期O18到22倍，跌穿250天線才應小心。
1997年8月同2000年3月恒指O都22倍以上，牛市三期十分明顯。2003年4月恒指回升至今，未見O22倍以上（反之，國企指數已在22倍之上，國企股已進入牛市三期，即瘋狂上升期，開始唱《夕陽之歌》）。後市展望，股市繼續swings，投資策略係：你驚我唔驚，你唔驚我驚。
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Thomson Financial: Singapore's construction stocks extend gains on industry boom
Singapore's construction stocks extend gains on industry boom
10/1/2007 4:24:00 PM
SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - Shares of Singapore construction companies extended gains Monday amid the boom in the industry as the city-state transforms into a vibrant global city in a bid to boost economic growth.
Infrastructure projects underway include a new business financial district, a string of new office buildings, hotels, and residential developments, industrial factories and sporting facilities and the two integrated casino resorts.
Credit Suisse expects the equipment and machinery supply companies and the specialist contractors to benefit most from this boom.
"We believe the greatest bottleneck lies in the market for heavy equipment and machinery, given the long lead time and competing demand from markets like the Middle East," it said in a client note.
The research house expects equipment rental rates to grow 10-25 percent year-on-year in 2007 and 10 percent over the next two to three years.
Credit Suisse is maintaining its "overweight" rating on the sector.
"It is perhaps noteworthy that the majority of the companies surveyed believe that the Building and Construction Authority's construction demand forecast of 19-22 billion Singapore for 2007 is conservative, given the strong momentum of orders that they have been receiving, and the contracts they are currently bidding for," it said.
At 4.17 pm, Yongnam Holdings was up 1.5 cents at 42.5 Singapore cents, CSC Holdings was up 1 cent at 35 cents, and Chip Eng Seng Corp was up 1.5 cents at 80 cents. Tat Hong added 5 cents to 2.46 Singapore dollars, Hong Leong Asia rose 10 cents to 3.98 dollars, and Tiong Woon gained 7 cents to 1.18 dollars.
10/1/2007 4:24:00 PM
SINGAPORE (Thomson Financial) - Shares of Singapore construction companies extended gains Monday amid the boom in the industry as the city-state transforms into a vibrant global city in a bid to boost economic growth.
Infrastructure projects underway include a new business financial district, a string of new office buildings, hotels, and residential developments, industrial factories and sporting facilities and the two integrated casino resorts.
Credit Suisse expects the equipment and machinery supply companies and the specialist contractors to benefit most from this boom.
"We believe the greatest bottleneck lies in the market for heavy equipment and machinery, given the long lead time and competing demand from markets like the Middle East," it said in a client note.
The research house expects equipment rental rates to grow 10-25 percent year-on-year in 2007 and 10 percent over the next two to three years.
Credit Suisse is maintaining its "overweight" rating on the sector.
"It is perhaps noteworthy that the majority of the companies surveyed believe that the Building and Construction Authority's construction demand forecast of 19-22 billion Singapore for 2007 is conservative, given the strong momentum of orders that they have been receiving, and the contracts they are currently bidding for," it said.
At 4.17 pm, Yongnam Holdings was up 1.5 cents at 42.5 Singapore cents, CSC Holdings was up 1 cent at 35 cents, and Chip Eng Seng Corp was up 1.5 cents at 80 cents. Tat Hong added 5 cents to 2.46 Singapore dollars, Hong Leong Asia rose 10 cents to 3.98 dollars, and Tiong Woon gained 7 cents to 1.18 dollars.
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