Monday, November 24, 2014
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Thursday, October 23, 2014
BT: Share traders calling it a day as market volume dries up - 23 Oct 2014
23 Oct5:50 AM
Singapore
Average net commission on the decline, slumping to about S$1,000 from around S$6,000 to S$8,000 a decade ago
KISHORE Rochey was a trading representative for 20 years before calling it quits in September this year. He said that the average net commission earned by his peers has been on the decline, with through-the-grapevine estimates falling from around S$6,000 to S$8,000 a decade ago to about S$1,000 when he left.
"It made no sense to stay around."
Mr Rochey's story is not unique. Market liquidity in Singapore is at a multi-year low, commissions are suffering and many in the industry are either looking for other sources of income or simply moving on.
While many in the industry acknowledge macroeconomic effects in the market, they also blame regulations that have raised the costs for speculative traders and cut spreads and commissions for trading representatives.
In response, Singapore Exchange (SGX) stressed that it cannot jeopardise long-term market quality for short-term liquidity droughts, and noted that it has taken several initiatives aimed at helping the industry.
The numbers do not paint a pretty picture. Market turnover fell 21 per cent in the financial year ended June 30, 2014, to S$286 billion, according to SGX. That is the lowest turnover since fiscal 2006, when the size of the total market was less than what it is worth today.
Looking at turnover as a proportion of market capitalisation, the average turnover velocity in FY2014 was just 40 per cent, compared to 71 per cent back in FY2007 (view infographic).
UOB-Kay Hian Holdings posted a 31.8 per cent decrease in first-half commission income this year, to S$113 million. DBS Group Holdings' brokerage income for the first half of 2014 fell 29 per cent to S$85 million. OCBC Bank matched DBS's decline, with brokerage income dropping to S$26 million.
An executive at a brokerage who deals with remisiers said that the number of trading representatives in Singapore has fallen to about 3,900 in 2013 from more than 4,300 in 2011.
Jimmy Ho, president of the Society of Remisiers of Singapore, remarked: "I quote one remisier who's been in the industry for over 40 years, and he said it's never been like this before."
Those who are still in the game are looking for other ways to make a buck.
Mr Rochey noted that some brokerages are encouraging their remisiers to help refer their clients to specialists of other products and asset classes such as contracts for difference and forex.
"But at the end of the day, when the commissions are so low . . . there's just not enough meat," Mr Rochey said.
A trader who has since moved to another part of the desk said that investors are also looking to overseas markets for more action. Emerging markets such as Thailand, for example, offer more inefficiencies that investors are better able to capture, he said.
"You have to look to where the money is," the trader said. "Thailand, Hong Kong, Indonesia, even the US, where the volatility is there. If you're talking about money flow, in South-east Asia, you don't have to look that far beyond Thailand and Indonesia."
Industry veterans cited a number of factors for the industry's current woes. The first, and most obvious, is that equity trading volumes across the world have not been great ever since the Global Financial Crisis.
"From 2009 until now, the market has gone out, so people don't have the courage to come in big time," Mr Rochey said. "You need a whole new breed of investors to come in and create the volume, who didn't experience the pain of 2008 and 2009. That will take a decade."
Singapore has been hit especially hard because of the penny stock collapse that began in October 2013 and continues to weigh on small and mid-cap counters.
But the industry said that regulations, some of which were in response to the penny meltdown, have made it hard for the market to recover from that hit.
The trading executive said that SGX's removal of its S$600 clearing-fee cap in June has crimped large-volume day trades.
"Now the clearing fee has no cap, so it's very expensive for them to trade," the executive said. "Low liquidity and volumes mean it's also hard for them to trade more, and the bid-ask size is smaller now, so for them to make money from day trading is very hard."
Mr Ho said that proposed rule changes such as the shortening of the settlement period to two days from three days and the requirement for brokerages to collect collateral will suppress the liquidity provided by contra trading. Contra trading refers to the practice of taking and unwinding positions without collateral within the settlement period.
"If you ask for margin, that's operating like a bank," Mr Ho said. "Any exchange doesn't operate this way, because any exchange must combine the speculative and fundamental elements. If you take out the speculative element, the market won't function."
But SGX is adamant that some of those rules being complained about actually improve market quality, and changing them to address what it views as a short-term liquidity downturn would be myopic.
"Yes, from an exchange perspective and from my perspective, I'd like to have higher turnover," chief executive Magnus Bocker said. "But the question is, I'm here to long-term service the investors, I'm here to protect the retail investors and the institutional investors, I'm here to protect the integrity of the market, I'm here to support that we can raise money for companies."
Mr Bocker also argued that although liquidity is thin at the moment, other aspects of the market, such as ease of capital raising for issuers and the costs for investors are still robust. Programmes that incentivise market makers and liquidity providers are also showing early success.
"If you go back and say it's not so good, I would say the three important functions of the equity market work well," Mr Bocker said.
Mr Rochey, who said that he now makes more as a private investor, felt that brokerages should also be more aggressive in incentivising volumes. Graduated takes of commissions, where a remisier's share of commissions is stepped up if the remisier's volume crosses a threshold, should be utilised more, he said.
"If the broking houses want to revive the industry . . . share more of the profit."
The trader said that the market situation is unlikely to improve for the rest of the year. "In two weeks' time, we're into the month of November, and for the European and US funds, this is fund closure time for them . . . The market will get quieter."*
Thursday, October 11, 2012
ST: Home loan curbs 'will hit older buyers'
Magdalen Ng
Thu, Oct 11, 2012
The Straits Times
Investors in a weak financial position and buyers in their 40s and 50s will feel the effects of the latest property rules most acutely, analysts say.
Some older buyers who already have a loan may abandon plans to buy an investment property, the analysts added.
The central bank set a maximum of 35 years on all home loans. For new loans, the loan-to-value ratio has been lowered if the loan exceeds 30 years, or if the loan period extends beyond the retirement age of 65.
Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong said the "weak investor" can come from any age group. An example would be someone in his 40s earning less than his peers who wants to get ahead by entering the property market, thinking he can make money in the rental market.
"The new rules create an effect similar to rising interest rates, and increase the monthly cash outflow of home buyers," he said.
Older buyers will be forced to take shorter loans if they do not wish to pay a larger amount upfront. In some cases, the monthly rental received from these properties may not even be sufficient to cover their monthly mortgage.
R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng said: "Most investors will rethink buying the property if the monthly repayment exceeds the monthly rental, unless there are other sources to make up for the shortfall."
Mr Png Poh Soon, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore, said the new measures would make buyers more cautious when buying properties for investment.
For instance, a 50-year-old investor will now be able to get a maximum loan term of only 15 years if he wants to avoid the stricter loan-to-valuation limits.
This means that if he buys a three-bedder at Sunville in the Serangoon area for $1.2million, his monthly repayment on a 15-year loan will be $4,367 (assuming he has another loan). Previously, assuming he met the bank's credit assessment criteria, he could have taken a 25-year loan with a monthly mortgage of only $2,773. The rent for such a unit would be about $3,800.
SLP International research head Nicholas Mak noted that the calculations "assume that interest rates remain low, which I do not expect for the next 20 years".
While the new rules are not the sole factors putting off Ms Vivian Lee from upgrading to a suburban condominium, they will affect her eventual decision.
The 39-year-old bank manager said: "We intended to take out a 30-year loan, but now I don't think so. Probably 25, which will affect our monthly cashflow."
The new rules may sway smaller and middle-aged investors towards the "very frothy" industrial and commercial property market, said International Property Advisor chief executive Ku Swee Yong. "We should now look for new curbs in the industrial and commercial sector. Some are selling at $1,000 per sq ft. It is completely insane in terms of pricing."
Asiaone: MAS to restrict loan tenure for residential properties
Fri, Oct 05, 2012
AsiaOne
SINGAPORE - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will start to restrict the tenure of loans granted by financial institutions for the purchase of residential properties from Oct 6 this year.
The maximum tenure of all new residential property loans will be capped at 35 years.
Loans exceeding 30 years' tenure will face significantly tighter loan-to-value (LTV) limits. This will apply to both private properties and HDB flats.
MAS said in a statement that this is part of the Government's broader aim of avoiding a price bubble and instilling long term stability in the property market.
Such a move will also curb continued upward pressure on residential property prices, driven by low interest rates and rapid credit growth.
According to MAS, a significant supply of housing will come onto the market over the next two years.
However, prices in both the HDB resale market and private residential property have continued to rise in the second and third quarters of this year.
Financial institutions have also been lengthening the tenures of residential property loans.
The average tenure for new residential property loans has increased from 25 to 29 years over the past three years.
More than 45 per cent of new residential property loans granted by financial institutions have tenures exceeding 30 years.
MAS said such long tenure loans pose risks to both lenders and borrowers.
"Lower initial monthly repayments, made possible by long loan tenures and the current low interest rates, may lead borrowers to over-estimate their ability to service the loans, and take a bigger loan than they can really afford.
"A rising property market may give false confidence to both borrowers and lenders that should there be difficulty in servicing the loan, they can always sell the property at a higher price," it said.
However, in reality, long tenure loans impose a larger debt repayment burden on borrowers as interest accumulates over a longer period.
When interest rates eventually rise, borrowers who have overextended themselves will have difficulties repaying their loans. If property prices fall, financial institutions may be caught holding the bad loans.
MAS chairman Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam said the central bank is taking this step to require more prudent lending, and will continue to watch the property market carefully.
"We will do what it takes to cool the market, and avoid a bubble that will eventually hurt borrowers and destabilise our financial system," he said.
The new MAS rules impose an absolute limit of 35 years on the tenure of all loans for residential property. This will apply to loans to both individual and non-individual borrowers, as well as refinancing loans
In addition, MAS will lower the LTV ratio for new residential property loans to borrowers who are individuals, if the tenure exceeds 30 years or if the loan period extends beyond the retirement age of 65 years.
For these loans, the LTV limit will be 40 per cent for a borrower with one or more outstanding residential property loans, 60 per cent for a borrower with no outstanding residential property loan.
MAS will also lower the LTV ratio for residential property loans to non-individual borrowers from 50 per cent to 40 per cent.
BT: MAS imposes cap on housing loan tenures
Emilyn Yap and Mindy Tan
Mon, Oct 08, 2012
The Business Times
SINGAPORE regulators signalled their concerns over still rising home prices yesterday, announcing fresh mortgage curbs to cap upward price pressures caused by low interest rates and fast credit growth.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said it will set an absolute limit of 35 years on the tenure of all residential property loans - both new loans and refinancings. It will also lower loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for new loans with a tenure of more than 30 years. The new rules will apply to both private homes and HDB flats and will take effect today.
"Monetary conditions worldwide are far from normal," said Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, noting that the latest round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States and low interest rates have made credit easy, though this will eventually change.
"We are taking this step now to require more prudent lending, and will continue to watch the property market carefully," said Mr Tharman, who is also Finance Minister and MAS chairman. "We will do what it takes to cool the market, and avoid a bubble that will eventually hurt borrowers and destabilise our financial system."
The new rules - Singapore's sixth round of cooling measures - look set to affect not just home buyers and existing owners looking to refinance their mortgages, but also property developers and banks.
According to the central bank, over 45 per cent of new home loans have tenures exceeding 30 years. "We will not be surprised to see more measures being introduced if property prices do not stabilise (or correct slightly) over the next few months," said Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho. MAS will cap the tenure of all new residential property loans at 35 years.
For refinancings, the tenure of the refinancing facility and the number of years since the first home loan for that property was disbursed cannot add up to more than 35 years.
Also, MAS will lower the LTV ratio for new home loans to individual borrowers if the tenure exceeds 30 years, or the loan period extends beyond the retirement age of 65 years.
The LTV will be 60 per cent for a borrower with no outstanding residential property loan, compared with 80 per cent previously, and 40 per cent for a borrower with one or more outstanding home loans, compared with 60 per cent before the new rules.
For non-individual borrowers, the LTV ratio for home loans will be lowered to 40 per cent from 50 per cent.
The MAS move comes after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a 30-year limit on the maximum term of all new mortgages last month, following the launch of QE3. With the Federal Reserve looking to pump US$40 billion into the US economy each month until sustained jobs growth kicks in, worries about hot money inflows into Asia and asset price inflation have again emerged.
Stretched tenures.
Previous rounds of cooling measures had a moderating effect on home prices in Singapore, and a significant supply of housing will also come onstream in the next two years, MAS noted. "However, prices in both the HDB resale market and private residential property have continued to rise in Q2 and Q3 of 2012."
According to official flash estimates on Monday , HDB resale prices rose 2 per cent in Q3 from Q2, while private home prices gained 0.5 per cent over the same period. Separately, the SRX Residential Property Flash Report yesterday showed resale prices of non-landed private homes rising 3.2 per cent in Q3.
Low interest rates globally and locally are likely to persist and will continue to spur residential property demand, pushing up prices beyond sustainable levels, MAS warned, stressing that "the eventual correction could be painful to borrowers and destabilise the economy".
Meanwhile, financial institutions have stretched the durations of home loans, and long tenure loans pose risks to both lenders and borrowers, the central bank said. The average tenure for new residential property loans climbed to 29 from 25 years over the last three years, it revealed.
Also, more than 45 per cent of new home loans granted by financial institutions have tenures exceeding 30 years.
Lower initial monthly repayments from long loan tenures and low interest rates may cause borrowers to overestimate their loan servicing ability and take a bigger loan than they can afford, MAS said. In fact, long tenure loans create a larger debt repayment burden as interest accumulates over a longer period.
"When interest rates eventually rise, borrowers who have overextended themselves will have difficulties repaying their loans," MAS said. "If property prices fall, financial institutions may be caught holding the bad loans."
Banks which offer home loans with a tenure of over 35 years will feel the impact of the new rules almost immediately. DBS and OCBC are among those providing mortgages stretching up to 40 years.
"We will reduce our existing maximum home loan tenure of 40 years to 35 years, with immediate effect," said OCBC group corporate communications head Koh Ching Ching.
A DBS spokeswoman said that most of the bank's home loans have a tenure of under 35 years. "It will take some time to ascertain the impact of the new measures while homebuyers assess the market."
Resale impact
United Overseas Bank (UOB), which introduced 50-year housing loans in July, did not respond to media queries. Some market watchers then had questioned if the product would cause borrowers to overextend themselves, and National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan subsequently called it a "gimmick".
Maybank said its maximum loan tenure for home loans is 35 years. "With an ageing population and couples marrying and setting up home at a later age, the new rules will have impact on these segments," said Alan Yet, head of lending (consumer banking) for Singapore.
The jury is out on how the new rules will affect the residential property market. The Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) does not expect a significant impact. "Based on past experience, not many buyers take long tenure loans," it said. Just last week, Redas said the property sector does not need more cooling measures - at least not before a thorough review of the impact of earlier policies.
Jones Lang LaSalle South-East Asia research head Chua Yang Liang believes that the new rules may be more keenly felt in the secondary market, particularly for buyers with existing housing loans as the lower LTV applies to them.
"The property market is likely to see a knee jerk reaction with a slowdown in resale activity while new sales should remain fairly stable," he said. "Given the potential economic slowdown and with this new policy risk, developers are likely to adopt a more cautionary stance and land bid prices could be more modest."
Friday, December 9, 2011
BT: UBS sees more downside to property on gov't new cooling measures
UBS sees more downside to property on gov't new cooling measures
By YEO AIQI
UBS Investment Research on Thursday sees further weakness in the physical prices of property given the severity of the government's new measures unveiled on Wednesday.
'We believe it is not in the government's interest to drive down property prices. But, given the severity of the new measures, it is hard to see how physical prices will not start falling. Assuming stocks fall as per Jan 2011, first quarter of 2012 may be a good time to start putting cash to work in the developers. In 2009, stocks recovered in Mar 2009, even as property prices fell another 14 per cent quarter on quarter in first quarter 2009 and 4.7 per cent quarter on quarter in second quarter of 2009,' said UBS.
It cited historical data where stocks typically bottomed ahead of physical market prices. In 2009, the Singapore market index bottomed in March 2009, even though the URA property price index continued falling.
Similar experiences happened during the Asian crisis in 1998, post the 9/11 incident, in 2001 and SARS period in 2003.
On Wednesday, the government announced harsh new measures that will raise buyer's stamp duties to as high as 13 per cent for foreigners and companies, 6 per cent for permanent residents buying beyond their first property and 6 per cent for citizens buying beyond their second property.
BT: New terms may hit large collective sales
New terms may hit large collective sales
To avoid paying ABSD, developers must build, sell all units on residential sites within 5 years
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) The latest measures unveiled by the government are expected to have major implications for developers buying residential land, especially involving collective sale sites. They will have to develop any residential sites they buy from Dec 8 and sell all the units in the new project within five years - if they want to avoid paying the new 10 per cent additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD).
'This can be very onerous especially when the property market is slow,' said Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui.
Drew & Napier head of tax practice Ong Sim Ho said: 'For developers, it has become more difficult and costly to land bank.' He suggested one intention of the new rule could be to give more certainty to supply numbers on the completion of private homes.
Information in the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore e-tax guide on the ABSD indicates that the new 10 per cent ABSD is payable by corporate entities buying vacant land and development sites for residential use - although they can apply for upfront remission if the buyer (developer) undertakes to develop and dispose of all units in the new development (which must have more than four residential units) within five years of the date of contract or agreement to buy the site, among other conditions.
If this condition is not met, the ABSD (with interest) becomes payable immediately upon the expiry of five years. The residential sites include Government Land Sales (GLS) plots and private-sector sites including en bloc sales.
Market watchers say that with the five-year limit to complete the project and sell all units, developers will have to weigh their land purchase decisions more carefully.
'They must be confident of developing the project and disposing of all residential units in it within five years - taking into account the possibility of any turn in market conditions and in the case of en bloc sales, the risk of a possible delay in court approval,' says Lee Liat Yeang, partner in real estate practice group at law firm Rodyk & Davidson.
For en bloc sales, the date of contract or agreement refers to the date when the site is awarded by the Sales Committee. From this point, it can take six to 12 months or even longer for legal completion of the site's purchase (including court approval of the en bloc sale).
This additional time eats into the five-year limit the developer has to complete building the new residential project on the site and selling all the units, said Mr Lee.
But for sites bought through the GLS programme, the impact will be less as there is certainty that the legal completion of the land purchase will take place by the 90th day of the site's award (the latter is deemed date of contract), added Mr Lee.
Credo's managing director Karamjit Singh said the new rules will hit big collective sales very badly. 'For the small and medium-sized en bloc sale sites, most developers would already aim to buy the site, develop it and sell new units within five years, even before the new rules kicked in - whereas for the bigger sites it can be very difficult to be certain that you can clear all your units within five years.'
This will further reduce the attraction of bigger en bloc sale sites, which have already put developers off due to their steep pricing, say analysts.
There has not been any collective sale deal this year exceeding $200 million.
KPMG partner, tax services, Leonard Ong, said: 'The ABSD will certainly increase the costs of acquisition by developers who are unable to meet the conditions for remission.
'These costs are then likely to be passed on to end-buyers when the developed residential properties are sold. This would be regardless of who the properties are eventually sold to, including first-time home buyers. This cannot be the intention of the government.'
Under the new rules that took effect yesterday, foreigners and non-individuals (that is, corporates) buying any private residential property in Singapore will pay the 10 per cent ABSD. However, foreigners of certain nationalities - the United States, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Ireland - who fall within the scope of respective free trade agreements will be accorded the same treatment as Singapore citizens.
Singaporeans pay a 3 per cent ABSD for their third or subsequent residential property purchase. Permanent residents pay the same ABSD rate when they buy their second or subsequent home in Singapore.
Even before the ABSD kicked in yesterday, any developer buying a GLS residential site has been given a five-year limit by the state to complete the project, although the GLS conditions do not stipulate any timeframe on the sale of units.
However, when it comes to buying a private sector residential site (for example, through an en bloc sale), foreign developers have to obtain a Qualifying Certificate, conditions for which include a five-year limit to obtain Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) for the project and another two years from TOP date to finish selling all the units in the project.
Any developer with even a single non-Singaporean shareholder or director is deemed 'foreign'. Hence all the big listed developers, including City Developments and CapitaLand, are counted as foreign developers.
Hitherto, Singapore developers (such as Far East Organization and Hoi Hup) have been spared any time limit for completing or selling a residential project on a private site, although they face the five-year limit to complete GLS projects.
'So now the Singapore developers too will face a time limit to complete and sell units in all residential projects on sites bought from Dec 8, - if they wish to avoid ABSD,' said Mr Lee.