早报: 世界银行副行长林毅夫：中国经济未来二三十年仍会年增10%

世界银行副行长林毅夫：中国经济未来二三十年仍会年增10%

2008-02-22

(柏林新华电）世界银行副行长兼首席经济学家林毅夫指出，他对中国经济未来二三十年的发展前景持乐观态度，认为广受关注的能源问题不会成为中国发展的瓶颈，并预测中国经济有望在未来20年至30年仍然保持10%左右的成长率。

据新华社自柏林报道，林毅夫前日在参加德国外交政策协会举办的中国经济讨论会后，接受记者采访时表示，中国的经济发展具有不可忽视的潜力。除了中国拥有继续吸引外资的优势外，中国的国民消费以及服务业发展将在中国经济总量中占据越来越重要的地位。

林毅夫表示，能源价格居高将迫使中国国内的企业具备更强的节能动力，以提高能源使用效率，而政府也会出台更多节能政策来应对能源短缺问题。

与此同时，由于能源需求较大，会有更多的公司扩大能源开采的规模、增加储备，以增加能源的供应量。因此从长期看，能源本身不会成为限制中国发展的瓶颈。

世界银行行长佐利克在2月4日正式任命中国经济学家林毅夫为世界银行副行长兼首席经济学家。这是世行首次任命发展中国家人士出任这一要职。

林毅夫说，这是世界银行对发展中国家、尤其是中国发展成功经验的重视。不过他表示，每一个国家的国情都有所不同，成功的经验不能照抄，问题的最终解决要取决于那个国家的具体情况。

早报: 中国财经: 全球十大市值公司 中国占四席

2007-10-19全球十大市值公司 中国占四席

香港／北京讯）A股和港股的连续上涨，已使得四家中国公司进入了全球上市公司市值前10名。据彭博社的数据，截至10月16日收盘，全球市值最高的10大上市公司中，中国公司已经和美国公司平分秋色，各占四席。

其中中石油排名第二，其余三家中国公司分别是中国移动、工商银行和中国石化(PetroChina)，排名依次为第四、第五和第八。

工商银行是全球最大市值的银行，其市值高达3357亿8500万美元（4909亿新元）。

从10月7日开始，在香港上市的中石油连续五个交易日以上涨收盘，累计涨幅达到了33.19%，使其市值一举超越通用电气公司，成为全球第二大上市公司，仅次于艾克森美孚（Exxon Mobil Corp）。

10月16日，尽管中石油股价小幅下跌了2.13%，但其收盘时总市值已高达4290亿4200万美元，逼近市值5254亿5300万美元的埃克森美孚公司，而排名第三的通用电气的市值则为4177亿3700万美元。

另外两家进入前10名的美国公司是微软和美国电报电话公司（AT&T）。微软排名第六位，美国电报电话公司排名第10位。壳牌石油公司(Royal Dutch Shell)和俄罗斯天然气公司(OAO Gazprom)分列第七和第九位。

不过，由于中国石化股价昨日在香港股市曾一度跳升8.8％，其市值达到2万1000亿港元（4038亿新元）也因此超越了壳牌公司，成为全球第四大石油与煤汽公司。在这10大市值排名中，也从第八位晋级到第七位。但在劲升过后，中国石化股价昨日闭市时回落到12.36港元，其市值也随之走低。

以10月16日收盘价计算，市值列入10大的四家中国公司的总市值已经高达1万4039亿美元，同四家美国公司的合计总市值1万4833亿美元，仅相差不到800亿美元。

根据彭博社提供的数据，中石油、中国移动、工商银行和中国石化的市盈率分别达到了22.56倍、41.85倍、45.28倍和16.06倍。其中，工行的市盈率在这10家公司中最高，而四家中国公司的算术平均市盈率也达到了31.44倍，远远高于10家上市公司的平均市盈率21.45倍。

第一财经日报》报道，中信金通证券首席分析师钱向劲认为，中国宏观经济的不断走强，以及近期A股市场的连续上涨，资金积极投入中国公司。A股市场高估值，一定程度上也抬高了这些在境外上市公司的股价和估值水平。这种高估值一定程度上反映了市场的不成熟，另一方面，对于在一个不断发展的经济体中成长的公司来说，略高的估值也是合理的。

BT: China's annual GDP growth eased to 11.5 per cent in the third quarter

Business Times - 26 Oct 2007

China's economy slows a little, but remains red hot11.5% Q3 growth brings it closer to overtaking Germany as world's third-largest economy

(BEIJING)

China's annual GDP growth eased to 11.5 per cent in the third quarter, but the slowdown from a 12-year high of 11.9 per cent in the second quarter was not enough to dispel expectations of fresh policy curbs to stave off overheating.

The outcome, which was in line with market forecasts, means China could well grow this year at the fastest rate since 1993 and brings it closer to overtaking Germany as the world's third-largest economy.

'Industrialisation, urbanisation and China's global manufacturing power are the three engines that continue to drive very high growth,' said Chen Xingdong, chief economist at BNP Paribas Peregrine in Beijing.GDP over the first three quarters expanded 11.5 per cent and for the first time this year, China will contribute more than the United States to global growth, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Although that is a source of pride for the ruling Communist Party, which ended its five-yearly Congress on Monday, policymakers know they can have too much of a good thing.Li Xiaochao, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, told a news conference yesterday that the problems facing the economy were still pronounced, with growth and inflation still too high.

The economy has now grown at a double-digit pace for seven quarters, but at a cost of environmental degradation, galloping energy consumption and rising inflationary pressure.

Premier Wen Jiabao said on Wednesday his government would keep a tight grip on policy for the rest of the year to curb inflation and brake investment, the main driver of growth.'What is needed is more attention to the quality of growth and environmental protection,' Mr Chen said.

The statistics office, which released the growth figures, confirmed a disclosure by a senior official last week that annual consumer inflation slowed to 6.2 per cent in September from a decade- high 6.5 per cent in August.

Economists took heart from the moderation but said the central bank, which has already raised interest rates five times this year, was likely to jack up borrowing costs further.'Inflation was lower than August, but one month's figures do not mean a reversal in the uptrend.

Data from the real economy would suggest otherwise,' said Chris Leung, an economist with DBS in Hong Kong.'I expect an interest rate rise any time.

It's safe to say there'll be one more rise this year. I'd not be surprised if there were two,' he said.But Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities in Beijing, said central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan was likely to wait and see how the economy responds to past belt-tightening.

'I think the various tightening steps are beginning to take hold. Investment is still fast, but not as fast as I had expected,' he said. -- Reuters

BT: Plan to defer public works will have little impact

Business Times - 21 Feb 2008

Plan to defer public works will have little impact: report

Delaying $3b worth of projects won't help relieve building demand, says RLB

By ARTHUR SIM

CONSTRUCTION industry experts are seeking to play down the significance of the government's moves to ease the pressure on the industry's costs.

The government is intending to defer an additional $1 billion worth of public-sector projects to help the industry - a move that follows the decision last November to postpone $2 billion worth of projects.

A report by construction cost consultancy Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) said that the deferring of public-sector projects 'is expected to have a limited impact on relieving construction demand as it will represent around 10 per cent of annual demand'.

Latest estimates by the Building and Construction Authority value construction contracts awarded this year at up to $27 billion.

RLB's latest figures for its tender price index shows that it also increased by 23 per cent as at the end of the third quarter last year. It said that rising construction costs are attributed to increased costs of foreign construction labour and professional expertise, materials and equipment costs, as well as on- and off-site overheads.

Indicative construction costs of an office building in the CBD of up to 41-55 storeys is between $353- $438.5 psf of gross floor area (GFA).

The construction costs of a luxury condominium is between $325.2 and $441.3 psf of GFA, while a five-star hotel will cost between $464.5 and $627 psf of GFA to build.

Good quality retail space costs $311-$367 psf of GFA to build.

In terms of key construction materials, concreting sand has shown the highest year-on-year increase, jumping 160.3 per cent as at November 2007. The price of granite aggregate increased by 32.1 per cent in the same period while the price of ready mix concrete increased by 71.4 per cent.

However, RLB noted that prices did generally 'moderate to a downward trend' for the second half of 2007, the period that coincides with the start of the US sub-prime loans crisis and the global credit crunch.

Indeed, RLB added: 'Whilst the Singapore construction market will be somewhat buffered in the short term by existing development commitments within the domestic market, it will be difficult to predict the impact of the global financial crisis in the medium run.'

RLB does believe that on the back of rising crude oil prices and growing building activity particularly in the Middle East, China and India, price gains are anticipated for the first half of 2008.

Citing other industry sources, RLB said that world steel demand is forecast to reach over 1.45 million tonnes in 2011, which represents an 88 per cent growth in the ten years from 2001.

'However, a slowdown in the rate of demand growth is anticipated towards the end of the current decade,' it added.

CSC: BAGS MARINA BAY FINANCIAL CENTRE CONTRACT $118M

CSC BAGS MARINA BAY FINANCIAL CENTRE CONTRACT

Latest win boosts order book to S$448m

SINGAPORE, 31 January 2008 – Leading foundation and geotechnical engineering specialist, CSC Holdings Limited ("CSC" or "the Group"), has seen a further boost to its portfolio by bagging the foundation works contract for phase two of the Marina Bay Financial Centre (BFC) Commercial Tower.

The contract was awarded by Central Boulevard Development Pte Ltd – a joint venture between Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited, Hongkong Land Limited and Keppel Land Limited.

Work at the Marina BFC Commercial Tower will involve bored piling, diaphragm wall and ground improvement works, and is scheduled to commence at the end of this month and be
completed by the first quarter of 2009.

This latest contract win was one of four foundation works secured by CSC in the past three weeks. The other three are Alexandra Industrial Park, Lonza Biologics Plant (Phase Three) at Tuas, and public housing projects at Choa Chu Kang/Yishun. Collectively, the contracts are about S$118 million, with the bulk of it being contributed by the Marina BFC.

Mr See Yen Tarn, Chief Executive Officer of CSC Holdings Limited said, "Our strategy of extending our capabilities via strategic acquisitions as well as organic growth has enabled us to become the only ground engineering specialist in Singapore, who can provide a full range of foundation works. This has not only served us well in giving us an edge in the tendering process of various foundation contracts, but also laid the ground work for future growth."

The four new contracts wins come just three weeks after CSC announced on 10 January
2008 that it had secured several foundation contracts amounting to S$120 million. The Group’s order book to date stands at S$448 million, with most of the projects to be completed within the next 12 months.

For the six months ended 30 September 2007, the Group’s revenue was S$185 million with profit after tax of S$20 million. These have surpassed the Group’s revenue of S$127 million and profit after tax of S$9.3 million respectively for the full financial year ended 31 March 2007.

Preliminary figures released in mid-January 2008 by the Building and Construction Authority ("BCA") indicate that Construction demand in Year 2007 was approximately S$24.5 billion.

Expected demand for Year 2008 is between S$23 billion and S$27 billion. The Land and Transport Authority has also announced its plan to construct 4 new MRT Lines in addition to the 3 lines which are under construction. In addition, 2 new Expressways will also be added to our land transport network.

The Group sees many opportunities in local market with the expected increase in infrastructure works (e.g. MRT Lines), private/public housing projects and institutional projects, amongst others. Added Mr. See, "While we continue to ride on our strength at home, we will also aim to further establish our overseas presence to ensure substainable growth of the Group beyond the current construction boom in Singapore".

The Economist: Singapore uopdate, Feb 2008

Singapore - News this month

Transport for the future

Singapore's government will more than double its spending on transport infrastructure in the next 12 years. Delivering the annual budget on February 15th, the finance minister, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, said S$50 billion ($35.4 billion) would be spent on new motorways and two new lines for the light-railway network. The government hopes the projects will reduce road congestion, which has increased by a quarter since 1999, boost Singapore’s ability to absorb a growing population and raise property prices in outlying areas.

Storm warning

Singapore's prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, prepared his countrymen for tougher times ahead in his traditional message of welcome for the Chinese new year. Mr Lee spoke on February 5th of a need to “gird ourselves for further uncertainties”, highlighting worries about the impact of a possible recession in America and an ensuing global slowdown. He admitted that the rising prices of food and energy were a concern locally, but ruled out the introduction of subsidies for essential items.

BT: Lifelong Income scheme comes with array of choices

Business Times - 13 Feb 2008

Lifelong Income scheme comes with array of choices

Permutations reflect diverse situations of Singaporeans

By CHEN HUIFEN

(SINGAPORE) With 12 possible permutations that one can opt into, Singaporeans turning 55 years old in 2013 and after are set to face a mind-boggling array of options on their participation in the CPF-backed Lifelong Income (LI) scheme.

But the National Longevity Insurance committee, which came up with the recommendations for the scheme, said that the feature of letting members choose their own plans reflects the diverse situation of Singaporeans.

There will be six choices on when the payouts can begin, with the earliest start date set at the age of 65 and the latest at 90. Singaporeans on the scheme can also decide whether or not they want to leave any unused payouts to their beneficiaries upon death.

'It's administratively burdensome but it's something that we have to live with in order to trade off choices,' said committee member Zulkifli Baharudin, who is also managing director of Global Business Integrators Pte Ltd.

The LI scheme works by apportioning part of the cash balance of a Singaporean's Minimum Sum into what is called the Refundable Premium (RP). This happens at age 55. The rest will remain in his Retirement Account (RA).

Assuming that a Singaporean chooses to get his LI payout at 80, his RA will start paying him a monthly income from 65 until he reaches 80 years old. At this point, the RP kicks in to pay him the same monthly income until his death.

Should he choose the refund option upon death, his beneficiaries will get the balance in his RA, if any, and any remaining unpaid amounts from his RP. But if he opts for no refund, then his beneficiaries will only get the balance in his RA, if there is any, and none from his RP.

Premiums and payouts will vary in accordance with the age that members choose to kickstart their LI and whether they want a refund in the event of death. The earlier their LI starts, the more money they will receive each month, but they will also have to carve out a bigger portion of their Minimum Sum at 55 for the RP to fund the plan. Hence, less RA balance would go to their beneficiaries if they pass away before their LI begins.

Conversely, if they receive their LI later, say at 90, their RA portion is stretched to last longer and the premium for LI will be less. All other things being equal, there will be more RA left for beneficiaries upon their early demise.

At the extreme end of the spectrum, should a CPF member choose not to receive any refund and to start his LI at 65, all his Minimum Sum will go into the RP. This permutation will lead to the highest payout among all options, but there would be nothing for beneficiaries should death come before 65.

Once members decide on their choice of LI scheme at 55, they will not be able to change their minds. However, additional CPF contributions - either from property sales, continued employment or proceeds from the CPF Investment Scheme - after the age of 55 may be included in the LI to raise the payout sum.

To be implemented in 2013, the scheme will auto-include those who have at least $40,000 in Minimum Sum when they are 55 years old. Committee chairman Lim Pin said the threshold sum balances the need to have the maximum possible number of people on board, with a reasonable payout level. About 75 per cent of active CPF members in the first cohort of the scheme will have at least $40,000.

Older members and those with less than $40,000 are encouraged to opt into the scheme as well. The government is expected to facilitate this through incentives.

Actual premiums and payouts will be determined by an independent actuarial consultant and reviewed periodically to reflect changes in mortality rates, as well as the social and economic situation of Singapore.

'The caveat in all this is that the scheme is not cast in iron,' said Prof Lim. 'We are prepared to change and to modify if events show that we have to do so.'