BT: IDA points the way to 4G speed

Business Times - 25 Jan 2011

IDA points the way to 4G speed

Local operators offered two options to upgrade cellular networks for broadband-speed surfing

By WINSTON CHAI

(SINGAPORE) The government has laid out two paths for local operators to upgrade cellular networks which could eventually mean broadband-speed surfing for smartphone users.

Under the rules prescribed by the Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore (IDA) yesterday, telcos are allowed to roll out a so-called fourth-generation (4G) networks on two mobile frequency spectrums for which they already have licences.

The upgrade, typically achieved with the implementation of a technology called long-term evolution (LTE), promises to bring cellular surfing speeds up to around 100Mbps (megabits per second). This is on par with premium fixed-line broadband packages offered in Singapore today and would allow consumers to enjoy blazing Internet access both at home and on the go.

While Singapore is among the first in the region to consider 4G, operators such as Verizon in the United States and TeliaSonera in Sweden have already gone the LTE way.

According to the IDA, local operators can use the 2.3 and 2.5 GHz (gigahertz) spectrum band, as well as the 900 and 1800 MHz (megahertz) frequency range for 4G services in future. The 2.3 and 2.5 GHz (gigahertz) was auctioned off for nearly $10 million to six companies in 2005. Beyond incumbent operators Singapore Telecommunications, StarHub and M1, three other companies - Qmax Communications, DoCoMO interTouch and PacNet - also paid for the licences.

Despite having paid top dollar, the spectrum band remains largely under-utilised even till today. Qmax, which has since been acquired by M1, is the only company to have introduced commercial wireless broadband services following the auction.

In 2009, the dormant licence from DoCoMO interTouch was transferred to the M1 subsidiary, while one from PacNet was turned over to Malaysian firm PacketOne later in the year.

These licences are valid until 2015 but the IDA intends to conduct an auction by as early as next year to re-allocate the spectrum for 4G services upon their expiry.

Besides tapping on the underused 2.3 and 2.5 GHz band, telcos can also choose to use the 900 to 1800 MHz range for the upgrade, the IDA said yesterday in a set of documents detailing its 4G interim decision.

This spectrum is currently used by telcos to offer basic mobile services on older GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) networks and the licences they hold are valid till 2017.

By issuing its stand now, the IDA is hoping to give operators ample time to plan their 4G rollout, it explained.

'We don't want the move to 4G to be impeded by a lack of clarity at the policy level', Leong Keng Thai, IDA's deputy chief executive and director-general of telecom and post, told BT.

The pathways laid out by the Singapore regulator are in line with the recommendations by agencies such as the International Telecommunication Union. This will make life easier for equipment makers as they will not need to repeatedly tweak their products to suit different countries.

In addition, the IDA's decisions are also largely in sync with the feedback it received from operators during its public consultation last year.

When contacted, local operators cheered the regulator's decision.

'This spectrum (2.3 and 2.5 GHz) is very suitable for 4G, and we support its early re-allocation,' StarHub spokeswoman Cassie Fong said.

'SingTel is exploring all options available and is working closely with network providers to ensure commercial LTE services can be introduced to our customers in good time,' the company said.

Both StarHub and SingTel have conducted LTE trials and plans to deploy this 4G technology down the road. M1 on the other hand, has committed to rolling out the upgrade over the next 12 months.

'We will be upgrading our network to LTE this year. We are now in the planning stages,' an M1 spokesperson said.

BT: New steps rain on speculators' parade

Business Times - 14 Jan 2011

New steps rain on speculators' parade

Big hike in seller's stamp duty and mortgage restrictions to cool property market

By UMA SHANKARI

(SINGAPORE) Starting today, speculators in the Singapore property market will find their ardour cooled by a severe new regime. The seller's stamp duty for private homes will rise to as high as 16 per cent, from up to 3 per cent previously, while tighter mortgage restrictions will be put in place.

The government yesterday unveiled a new and stronger round of demand-side cooling measures - the third set in less than 12 months.

The killer move, according to analysts, is a sharp hike in the seller's stamp duty to 16 per cent, 12 per cent, 8 per cent and 4 per cent respectively for properties that are bought on or after Jan 14 this year and are sold in the first, second, third and fourth year after purchase.

Previously, owners who sold houses and apartments less than three years after buying them had to pay a seller's stamp duty of only up to 3 per cent.

Related link: Click here to read the government's news release

Singapore also further slashed the Loan-To-Value (LTV) limit on housing loans for both individual and corporate buyers.

Its move follows Hong Kong's, which in late November 2010 announced some of its toughest-ever measures to cool the property market - including a stamp duty of as high as 15 per cent on apartments sold within six months of purchase. Hong Kong also tightened mortgage restrictions.

Analysts expect the higher seller's stamp duty will wipe out most speculators' gains and keep them out of Singapore's property market.

'For those buyers who intend to flip their properties within one or two years, the increased seller's stamp duty erases their potential gains,' said Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin. 'So this measure is pretty targeted and will take away a big chunk of these potential investors.'

But most analysts found the unexpected sharp hike in the seller's stamp duty to be harsh. In addition to hindering short and medium-term investors, it could also hurt genuine owner-occupiers looking to change homes.

International Property Advisor chief executive Ku Swee Yong said that a staggered-down capital gains tax - one that could perhaps be imposed only on capital gains from real estate - might have been more advisable. This would spare those who sell their properties at a loss.

'The government's intention of forcing people to treat real estate as a long-term investment is admirable,' said Mr Ku. 'But this (the higher seller's stamp duty) will force people to hold, including some genuine cases where there might be a real need to sell off a property.'

In addition, Singapore lowered the LTV limit on housing loans from 70 per cent to 60 per cent for individual buyers with one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new home purchase.

And for corporate purchasers (such as firms, trusts and collective investment schemes), the LTV limit has been cut to an even lower 50 per cent - regardless of the number of outstanding housing loans at the time of the new home purchase.

In August 2010, the government reduced the LTV ratio from 80 per cent to 70 per cent.

Yesterday's measures follow three gentler sets in September 2009, and February and August 2010.

'Previous government measures have to some extent moderated the market, but sentiment remains buoyant,' said the National Development and Finance Ministries in a joint statement with Singapore's central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

'Low interest rates plus excessive liquidity in the financial system, both in Singapore and globally, could cause prices to rise beyond sustainable levels based on economic fundamentals.'

Private home prices rose 17.6 per cent last year, according to flash estimates. A record 15,500-16,500 new private homes are also estimated to have been sold in 2010.

In a statement, the Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) said it has 'taken note' of the latest measures.

The measures will discourage speculative demand and will encourage longer-term holding of properties which will contribute to the stability of the market, Redas said: 'It is in the interest of the market to see a more gradual trend in growth and value for genuine home owners and investors.'

Merrill Lynch's Dr Chua also said that in addition to curbing speculators, the government could be concerned by aggressive mortgage lending by banks.

Analysts expect the volume of new home sales to fall in 2011 but were spilt on whether the new measures will cause private home prices to decline.

'There will be a sense of uncertainty in the market leading to hesitation among buyers and sellers and we can expect to see transactions easing in the short term,' said Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui.

But the measures may not lead to an immediate price decline in Q1 2011, he said. This round of measures is still not as severe as the anti-speculation measures announced in May 1996, which resulted in a 1.9 per cent drop in prices in Q3 1996. But any upside in prices in Q1 2011 will be 'minimal', Mr Ong added.

But in any case, analysts said that the 5-10 per cent growth in private home prices for the whole of 2011, which they predicted just one week ago, now looks highly unlikely. They also expect property stocks to fall today in reaction.

DJ: Wilmar falls 3.4% at 14:51pm

DJ MARKET TALK: STI +0.6%; Wilmar Falls 3.4%, NOL +3.6%
1/4/2011 2:51:00 PM

0651 GMT [Dow Jones] The STI is +0.6% at 3254.11, off its earlier 3260 high, but is likely to remain in positive territory as sentiment remains upbeat with regional bourses mostly higher, and DJIA futures pointing north amid increased optimism over the health of the U.S. economy. 1.66 billion shares have been traded worth S$1.25 billion, with gainers pipping decliners 263 to 220 on the broad market. With the STI breaking above resistance at 3220 Monday, and trading above psychological 3250, analysts mostly agree that 3300 is the next key level on the upside.

Wilmar (F34.SG) is down 3.4% at S$5.47 in heavy trade after JP Morgan downgrades the stock to Underweight from Overweight and slashes its target price, citing competition in China, overly optimistic consensus earnings, and worries over its intended deviation into property.

Publish Post

the most active stock today is Top Global (519.SG), flat at S$0.015. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

DJ MARKET TALK: JPM Cuts Wilmar To Underweight; Target S$4.60
1/4/2011 10:37:00 AM

0237 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan downgrades Wilmar International (F34.SG) to Underweight from Overweight and slashes its target price to S$4.60 from S$7.20. Says the stock is likely to underperform near term due to a regulatory overhang and competition in China; also cites an overly optimistic consensus earnings estimates and likely lackluster earnings momentum, while investors may accord a lower P/E multiple for its intended deviation from the core business. Reduces FY11/FY12 earnings forecasts by 5.3%/7.3% as the house lowers oilseeds crushing and consumer products margin assumptions; it also reduces the target P/E multiple to 14X from 20X. Says Wilmar's deviation from its core business may attract a "conglomerate discount." Adds future property projects under its JV with Kerry Properties and Shangri-La "could see more capital reallocated to property investments than reinvested in its core agri-commodities business in future...this may lead to a lowering of the P/E that investors are willing to accord the stock." Stock off 0.2% at S$5.65. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

BT: Wilmar's property foray - best to keep open mind

Business Times - 04 Jan 2011

Hock Lock Siew
Wilmar's property foray - best to keep open mind

By FELDA CHAY

THERE is an adage that a company should concentrate on what it knows best. So it comes as no surprise that the market has cast a negative eye on palm oil giant Wilmar International's recent forays into the Chinese property market - two activities that are said to be as different as cheese and chalk. Some even worry that the move could be a signal of a bad spell in the group's core agri-business. However, it is premature for sceptics to write off the new ventures as, with the collaboration of experienced partners, they could well turn out to be a lucrative business.

Wilmar, which is headed by 'sugar king' Robert Kuok's nephew Kuok Khoon Hong, announced that it was entering the Chinese property market two weeks ago. It will pump in a maximum 889.2 million yuan (S$173 million) to develop three residential, commercial and hotel sites in China's Yingkou city. Its project partners are Shangri-La Asia (SA) and Hong Kong- listed Kerry Properties (KPL) - two companies that are related to Malaysia's Kuok Group. It followed up by announcing last Wednesday that it will enter into a joint bid with KPL and SA for six plots of land, also for residential, commercial and hotel developments in Yingkou city. This time, Wilmar will be investing up to 2.63 billion yuan.

The market's reaction to the deals has been largely negative. The day after the first announcement, Wilmar's shares, which some say have been correcting amid China's consumer price cooling measures, fell 5 per cent to $5.62. The stock was caught in a rut before recovering some lost ground, ending three cents higher at $5.66 yesterday amid bullish trading in the first market day of the new year.

Analysts appear to worry that the group has lost its business focus. Yet, it is not the first company to diversify from its core business. A good example, in the commodity sphere, would be The Straits Trading Company, whose core business was, and still is in tin smelting, but went into a whole host of other ventures in the late 1990s such as property holding and development and even media advertising.

Deciding factor

The point is, just because a company decides to dip its fingers into something else, doesn't mean that it has lost its focus. In fact, around the time that Wilmar first announced its foray into the Chinese property market, the group also said that it was partnering UK-based PZ Cussons plc - which is listed on the London Stock Exchange - to set up a palm oil refinery and food ingredients business in Nigeria, in which Wilmar will invest US$27.5 million. And it recently completed the acquisition of Australian raw sugar exporter Sucrogen Ltd for US$1.8 billion. Clearly, Wilmar remains very much focused on the agriculture front. The deciding factor to consider in this, and other cases, is whether the diversification would destroy, or enhance, shareholder value.

In Wilmar's case, there are several factors that could act in its favour. If there are fears that Wilmar is a stranger to the property business, then consider its partners. Both are seasoned real estate players. KPL, for one, is a long-standing player in the Chinese property market. Properties it holds include hotels, commercial and residential developments, with many a mix of the three. It has a presence in China's top cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, as well as cities such as Hangzhou, Tianjin and Chengdu. In KPL's fiscal year 2009, about 34 per cent, or HK$1.5 billion (S$247.6 million), of its net profit came from mainland China. Hong Kong and Singapore listed SA is also well-established in China, having developed numerous hotels there.

Experienced operators

Wilmar brings something to the venture too. Its role in the tie-ups, as stated by the group in its announcement last Wednesday, lies in 'sourcing of suitable sites and the implementation of the projects' in Yingkou city - where it currently has an oilseed- crushing plant. Having established its operations in Yingkou and other Chinese cities, its partners are hoping to ride on its network and knowledge in the country and expand further. In the words of Wilmar: 'The brand recognition of KPL's properties and SA's hotels, together with their expertise in operating and managing such properties, will further enhance the value of the joint venture.'

Right now, the market is taken up by the risks associated with the diversification. But if the ventures succeed, the returns could be substantial, given the potential of the Chinese market. Nothing should be taken for granted, obviously, but Wilmar has mitigated some of the risks by partnering companies which are experienced operators. It has a decent chance of succeeding. So while it might be hard to associate Wilmar with hotels, apartments and office buildings, don't be surprised if there's increasing mention of contributions from these non-core activities in future earnings reports. As in most things, it's best to keep an open mind, for now at least.

BT: Luxury home prices defy market lethargy

Business Times - 04 Jan 2011

Luxury home prices defy market lethargy

Overall price growth for private homes, HDB resale flats slowed in Q4 but high-end hit new high

By UMA SHANKARI

(SINGAPORE) A surge of interest in high-end and luxury homes pushed prices in the segment, which has underperformed the rest of the market over the last two years, to a fresh all-time high in Q4 2010.

But in the rest of the market, prices of private homes as well as HDB resale flats grew more slowly in the fourth quarter compared to the first three quarters of last year.

Flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday show that overall private housing prices edged up 2.7 per cent in Q4 to a fresh record high.

Private home prices in Singapore first surpassed the former all-time peak achieved in 1996 in Q2 2010, and then continued to inch upwards in Q3 and Q4. For the whole of 2010, prices climbed 17.6 per cent.

But the gain in fourth-quarter prices was the smallest in six quarters, URA's data shows.

The high-end market was a notable exception. Non-landed home prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) micro-market, which includes the prime districts Marina Bay and Sentosa Cove, rose 2.3 per cent in Q4, faster than the 1.6 per cent growth seen in Q3.

This pushed luxury home prices to a new all-time high, outstripping the previous peak in Q1 2008.

By contrast, the price index for Rest of Central Region (RCR) rose by 1.7 per cent in Q4, down from 2.3 per cent in Q3. And in the Outside Central Region or OCR (where suburban condos are located), prices climbed 1.6 per cent in Q4 after increasing 2.2 per cent in Q3.

Analysts attributed the slowdown in price growth in the RCR and OCR areas to resistance from buyers for increasingly expensive projects.

Price growth in the CCR region, by contrast, rose on the back of the prevailing strong economy and low interest rates, which once again enticed foreign investors to pick up luxury homes in Singapore.

'In 2010, much of the activity was focused on the mass and mid-market segments,' said Joseph Tan, CBRE's executive director for residential. 'Foreigners stayed away, thinking that the lack of transaction activity in the high-end segment would lead to a fall in prices and allow them to buy the properties for less.'

But since most high-end home owners proved to have 'holding power', the anticipated fall in luxury home prices did not occur and foreign buyers are slowly returning to the luxury market, Mr Tan said.

The number of foreign home buyers rose by 14 per cent in 2010 compared to 2009, said Knight Frank's head of consultancy & research Png Poh Soon.

'The tightened regulations in Hong Kong and aggressive anti-speculation rules in China caused some investors to shy away from those markets and directed them to Singapore,' Mr Png said. 'High net worth foreign buyers would definitely consider the Singapore property market to park their money.'

Analysts also noted that while the latest round of cooling measures introduced by the government on Aug 30 have not dampened transaction volumes, they appear to have at least moderated price growth. A record 15,500-16,500 new private homes are estimated to have been sold in 2010, despite demand-side and supply-side measures introduced periodically throughout the year.

CBRE's Mr Tan said that transaction volumes were still high in 2010 as many potential buyers are still out looking for units.

But the price growth has slowed as these buyers - especially those house-hunting in the mass-market segment - are sticking to a budget.

Over at the HDB market, prices of resale flats rose 2.4 per cent in Q4 2010 - a slower rate of growth than the 4 per cent increase in Q3 2010 - according to flash estimates from the Housing & Development Board.

But while the resale price index was pushed to yet another all-time record, the transaction volume fell.

The resale volume declined by about 21 per cent in Q4, HDB said. And the median cash-over-valuation (COV) amount is also estimated to have fallen by $7,000 or 23 per cent, from $30,000 in Q3 2010 to $23,000 in Q4 2010.

In fact, COV levels declined progressively over the last three months of 2010, according to data from PropNex.

The firm's chief executive, Mohamed Ismail, said that according to monthly transactions handled by his company in Q4 2010, the median COV fell from $26,000 in October to $23,000 in November and to $20,000 in December.

But overall resale prices are still climbing in spite of falling COV levels due to a time lag, he explained

'Valuations for resale flats that were transacted in Q4 2010 were based on prevailing caveats for flats in the vicinity,' Mr Ismail said.

'There is therefore a certain lag time of about two months and hence the (HDB) prices overall are still climbing.'

Looking ahead, growth in private home prices may slow to anywhere between 3 per cent and 10 per cent in 2011, analysts predicted.

But most are more bullish on luxury home prices, which some said could climb by up to 15 per cent this year.

In the mass-market segment, the ample supply of new homes coming onstream from the beefed-up 2010 Government Land Sales programme should help to keep price growth to less than 5 per cent, analysts said.

And in the HDB resale market, prices are expected to grow by 5-10 per cent in 2011. The overall median COV level should also fall to about $18,000 to $20,000 in Q1 2011, said Mr Ismail.