Business Times - 27 Feb 2008
Spot on with the near-term calls
The principle behind technical analyst David Bensimon's accurate forecasts lies in the symmetries in markets,
reports GENEVIEVE CUA
MAKING forecasts is a tricky business, as many analysts and fund managers will tell you, but it does not faze technical analyst David Bensimon. Some of his calls on the markets have been so precise that on one of his speaking engagements, it spurred an impromptu bidding war among some in the audience for an on-the-spot copy of his award winning tome on markets, Polar Perspectives.
One of the bidders paid for his copy with a gold coin. Worth about US$700 then in November, it was about equal to the price of the book. But the coin has since appreciated, as Mr Bensimon notes with amusement.
The book last year won a gold medal as the 'best book in finance/ investment/economics' at New York's annual independent publishers awards.
Mr Bensimon's fundamental view is that most of the world - Asia in particular - is in for a 'prosperity-driven inflationary era' over the next few years, notwithstanding the jitters over the credit crisis. His long-term view, for instance, is that the Straits Times Index (STI) will hit 9,000 and the Hang Seng Index 100,000 by 2012; and gold will climb to US$2,600 an ounce by 2014.
He has set up a fund to invest according to the themes of his book. One of his first investors is Stephen Riady of the Lippo Group.
His forecasts may sound quite incredible, until you learn of his near-term calls on markets which have turned out uncannily right. Last October, for instance, he told an audience in Singapore that the STI would fall 15 per cent from its level of 3,900 then to 3,300 shortly. The index fell from 3,906 to 3,306 within six weeks of his call. In The Business Times in August, Executive Money quoted him as saying that the STI would fall to 2,800; the index was then at 3,300. It fell to a low of 2,866 in January.
The principle behind Mr Bensimon's calls lies in the proportionalities and symmetries in markets, which he sees as functions of 'phi', also called the 'golden mean'. This is expressed in the number 1.618 and its inverse 0.618. As he sees it, these symmetries permeate markets, and this is evident in the scale of market rises and even in the pattern of retracements across time. His calls have gained a following among banks, traders, hedge funds and private individuals.
The outcome of a forecast, he says, is not cast in stone but is based on probabilities. 'The power comes not from saying that markets will do this or that. It comes from recognising that different alternatives can unfold,' he says. 'The benefit is not to say the market might go up or down, that's not of value to anyone. The value comes from being able to say that if the market chooses this northward path, it will go this far and no more. If it takes the southward path, it will go this far to a target.
'My speciality is to provide clients with a magnitude of duration and time, of price and specific levels and dates . . . March does provide a broad turning point that crosses different markets, not just the STI or equities but across a spectrum.'
He believes the STI, currently trading at the 3,077 level, could still face yet another downdraft. It needs to exceed 3,300, he says, to confirm that it is out of the woods. Until then, there is a 'distinct risk' that it could fall another 15 per cent to 2550, which will be a buying opportunity. 'In Singapore if we break the 2,850 level, the next level down is 2,550 which seems a little far and rather cheap. But these motions are driven by panic and over-extension on the downside. But I'd be happy to invest anywhere from 2,800 to 2,600 because at those levels, it's really very cheap.'
He said: 'One of the benefits of looking at the very big picture history is that it provides a degree of comfort and confidence that when we are in a corrective mode, instead of being worried and panicking, we can be comfortable that we know what the rhythm is and can recognise the relationships. We know we'll get to the ultimate target of 8,800 or higher several years from now, and there are natural levels to re-enter the market.'
His view is that Asian markets - Australia, Shanghai, Singapore and in particular, Hong Kong - will move in synch upwards. 'Asia will benefit from the huge fundamental growth and prosperity sweeping across the region, that is not in any way harmed by the slowdown in the US. Asia now has enough internal demand and intra-Asian trade and infrastructure and consumer spending that it has a life of its own.'
He notes that historically, in past US recessions, the stock market has anticipated a recovery and rises well before the recession ends. 'There is no impediment to have markets bottom in March, and have them recover sharply even if a recession technically continues in the next few months.'
His views on oil and gold are positive but not equally so. He expects oil to reach US$125 a barrel this year and to move sideways for two years. 'We're still en route to US$125, but the big story is that once we reach US$125, everyone will scream that we're on the way to US$200 and that's not what's going to happen. '
The catch, too, is that consumer prices will not be adjusted downwards during the consolidation period. 'The margins for products will be fabulous and will power the stock market to much higher levels because the reduction of the oil price will translate directly into the bottom line for corporates in the industrial and financial sectors, telecom and blue chips. They'll all be lifted by prosperity.'
He is bullish on gold in the long term but expects some consolidation this year before it moves to US$1,030 an ounce in 2009, and eventually US$1,220 in 2010. But the most rapid rise is expected between 2011 and 2014 when he expects the price to hit US$2,600.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
CSC: INCORPORATION OF A MALAYSIAN SUBSIDIARY - CSCGE
26 Feb 2008
The Board of Directors (“Directors”) of CSC Holdings Limited (the “Company”) wishes to announce that it has on 25 February 2008 incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary in Malaysia under the name of CSC Ground Engineering Sdn Bhd (“CSCGE”).
The Board of Directors (“Directors”) of CSC Holdings Limited (the “Company”) wishes to announce that it has on 25 February 2008 incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary in Malaysia under the name of CSC Ground Engineering Sdn Bhd (“CSCGE”).
Friday, February 22, 2008
CNA: S’pore Sports Hub’s tentative calendar of events ready by year-end
Channel NewsAsia - 25 Jan 2008
SINGAPORE : The Singapore Sports Hub consortium is setting up a working committee to plan activities for the upcoming Sports Hub.
Their impressive programming calendar was the main reason the “dome-shaped” design was picked for the project.
In 3 years time, the Integrated Sports Hub, which will boast a retractable roof stadium, will also be a hive of activity - as numerous programmes have been lined up for the new facility.
These include annual international football tournaments, tennis and badminton events, and even the return of the Rugby Sevens.
An ASEAN Football League is also being planned to help bring back the Kallang Roar.
Seamus O’Brien, President and CEO, World Sports Group, said, “The national teams come together every two years in the ASEAN Championship, which has obviously been a big success.
“Now we are going to take that further into the club game and make sure that ASEAN, on a region-wide basis, is able to generate strong club sides, and good footballers that can compete with the rest of the region and hopefully in years to come, further afield.”
Another popular Asian sport - cricket - will also be making its presence felt at the new stadium.
For the man-in-the-street, Community Days will see free coaching clinics for the public to take up sports.
The fun does not end there.
Mr O’Brien said, “All of the activities of the Park on a daily basis can then be taken back out into the community in all forms of new digital media, which will give everybody a sense of belonging.”
The consortium will also engage experts and work with National Sports Associations to organise the multiple activities planned.
The consortium’s tentative calendar of events for its opening year will be ready by the end of this year. - CNA/msSource : Channel NewsAsia - 25 Jan 2008
SINGAPORE : The Singapore Sports Hub consortium is setting up a working committee to plan activities for the upcoming Sports Hub.
Their impressive programming calendar was the main reason the “dome-shaped” design was picked for the project.
In 3 years time, the Integrated Sports Hub, which will boast a retractable roof stadium, will also be a hive of activity - as numerous programmes have been lined up for the new facility.
These include annual international football tournaments, tennis and badminton events, and even the return of the Rugby Sevens.
An ASEAN Football League is also being planned to help bring back the Kallang Roar.
Seamus O’Brien, President and CEO, World Sports Group, said, “The national teams come together every two years in the ASEAN Championship, which has obviously been a big success.
“Now we are going to take that further into the club game and make sure that ASEAN, on a region-wide basis, is able to generate strong club sides, and good footballers that can compete with the rest of the region and hopefully in years to come, further afield.”
Another popular Asian sport - cricket - will also be making its presence felt at the new stadium.
For the man-in-the-street, Community Days will see free coaching clinics for the public to take up sports.
The fun does not end there.
Mr O’Brien said, “All of the activities of the Park on a daily basis can then be taken back out into the community in all forms of new digital media, which will give everybody a sense of belonging.”
The consortium will also engage experts and work with National Sports Associations to organise the multiple activities planned.
The consortium’s tentative calendar of events for its opening year will be ready by the end of this year. - CNA/msSource : Channel NewsAsia - 25 Jan 2008
ST: Sports Hub - Singaporeans Like The Dome Design
The Straits Times, Jan 21, 2008
They praise its iconic design, functionality but voice concerns over hefty price tag
SINGAPOREANS have given the design of the new Sports Hub at Kallang the thumbs up, praising its iconic design and functionality.
Their only concern: the project's hefty price tag.
However, the $1.87 billion figure is not only for the cost of building Singapore's new National Stadium and its surrounding facilities, but also for running the Hub for 25 years.
The figure had increased from previous estimates of $800 million because of rising construction costs and extra features like a public watersports centre, which was added last year.
However, some people fear that the high cost of the project may translate into high usage fees.
'If it's going to cost so much, I hope ordinary people will not have to pay through their nose to use it,' said marketing executive Genevieve Loh, 28.
But, even if they have to fork out more to watch a sports event or swim in a pool, Singaporeans are getting a world-class sports facility in return. For the new 55,000-capacity dome-shaped stadium will have a retractable roof to cater to all weather conditions, a first.
Two other unprecedented features are the indoor aquatic centre and the whitewater rafting facility.
There will also be 41,000 sq m of leisure, shopping and dining facilities.
On Saturday, the Government announced that the Singapore Sports Hub Consortium (SSHC) was the preferred bidder for the project.
It beat two other consortia - SingaporeGold and Alpine.
To be completed by 2011, the Kallang development is believed to be the world's first integrated sports public-private partnership project.
Once the contract is signed in March, the Government will pay $1.87 billion to SSHC over a 25-year period.
The consortium will, in turn, foot the bill for the construction and operating costs, estimated at $1.2 billion.
This means that it will pay for the project's capital expenditure, and take on risks involved, like the rising cost of materials or labour.
Third-party revenue such as ticket sales and rental of facilities will be shared between the consortium and the Government.
At a press conference on Saturday, Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, assured Singaporeans that the money will be well spent.
'In the sporting arena, we will become a key node in a global system where events are held, where you will participate and watch top international sporting events,' he said.
'People will come to Singapore and Singaporeans will also be able to find jobs, pursue their passion in sports.
This will therefore be a project which will open up many more opportunities for our people.' Cost aside, readers gave full marks for the new design. Said engineer Dennis Png, 40: 'I think the best design won.
The dome looks futuristic and gives the sense that Singapore is moving forward with the times.' But, some, like corporate communications executive Kevin Tan, felt that the money for the Sports Hub could have been put to better use.
'It's a steep price given the current economic climate,' said the 32-year-old. 'Perhaps the money could have been channelled to enhance our existing sports programmes.' Businessman Paul Ong, 30, also questioned the need for such 'extravagance'.
'Tan Howe Liang won an Olympic medal without any fancy facilities,' he said. 'The money could have been spent on the 'software', like the people and the athletes.'
But others believe the benefits brought about by the new Sports Hub will outweigh its initial cost. Said sales manager Michaes Chan, 28: 'It sounds very expensive, but I believe the Government has done its homework.
'The Sports Hub should boost the economy in the long run, which will also benefit me.'
They praise its iconic design, functionality but voice concerns over hefty price tag
SINGAPOREANS have given the design of the new Sports Hub at Kallang the thumbs up, praising its iconic design and functionality.
Their only concern: the project's hefty price tag.
However, the $1.87 billion figure is not only for the cost of building Singapore's new National Stadium and its surrounding facilities, but also for running the Hub for 25 years.
The figure had increased from previous estimates of $800 million because of rising construction costs and extra features like a public watersports centre, which was added last year.
However, some people fear that the high cost of the project may translate into high usage fees.
'If it's going to cost so much, I hope ordinary people will not have to pay through their nose to use it,' said marketing executive Genevieve Loh, 28.
But, even if they have to fork out more to watch a sports event or swim in a pool, Singaporeans are getting a world-class sports facility in return. For the new 55,000-capacity dome-shaped stadium will have a retractable roof to cater to all weather conditions, a first.
Two other unprecedented features are the indoor aquatic centre and the whitewater rafting facility.
There will also be 41,000 sq m of leisure, shopping and dining facilities.
On Saturday, the Government announced that the Singapore Sports Hub Consortium (SSHC) was the preferred bidder for the project.
It beat two other consortia - SingaporeGold and Alpine.
To be completed by 2011, the Kallang development is believed to be the world's first integrated sports public-private partnership project.
Once the contract is signed in March, the Government will pay $1.87 billion to SSHC over a 25-year period.
The consortium will, in turn, foot the bill for the construction and operating costs, estimated at $1.2 billion.
This means that it will pay for the project's capital expenditure, and take on risks involved, like the rising cost of materials or labour.
Third-party revenue such as ticket sales and rental of facilities will be shared between the consortium and the Government.
At a press conference on Saturday, Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, assured Singaporeans that the money will be well spent.
'In the sporting arena, we will become a key node in a global system where events are held, where you will participate and watch top international sporting events,' he said.
'People will come to Singapore and Singaporeans will also be able to find jobs, pursue their passion in sports.
This will therefore be a project which will open up many more opportunities for our people.' Cost aside, readers gave full marks for the new design. Said engineer Dennis Png, 40: 'I think the best design won.
The dome looks futuristic and gives the sense that Singapore is moving forward with the times.' But, some, like corporate communications executive Kevin Tan, felt that the money for the Sports Hub could have been put to better use.
'It's a steep price given the current economic climate,' said the 32-year-old. 'Perhaps the money could have been channelled to enhance our existing sports programmes.' Businessman Paul Ong, 30, also questioned the need for such 'extravagance'.
'Tan Howe Liang won an Olympic medal without any fancy facilities,' he said. 'The money could have been spent on the 'software', like the people and the athletes.'
But others believe the benefits brought about by the new Sports Hub will outweigh its initial cost. Said sales manager Michaes Chan, 28: 'It sounds very expensive, but I believe the Government has done its homework.
'The Sports Hub should boost the economy in the long run, which will also benefit me.'
Singapore Sports Council: Singapore Sports Hub Consortium, Led By Dragages Singapore Pte Ltd, Selected as Preferred Bidder For Sports Hub Project
Singapore Sports Hub Consortium, Led By Dragages Singapore Pte Ltd, Selected as Preferred Bidder For Sports Hub Project
Singapore, 19 January 2008 - The Singapore Government announced today that it has selected the Singapore Sports Hub Consortium (SSHC) led by Dragages Singapore Pte Ltd as the preferred bidder for the Singapore Sports Hub Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) project, subject to finalisation of contract details.
2 Making the announcement at a press conference, Minister for Community Development Youth and Sports, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan said: "We are pleased to announce the selection of the Singapore Sports Hub Consortium, led by Dragages Singapore Private Limited, as the preferred bidder for the Singapore Sports Hub Public-Private Partnership project. The Consortium displayed significant strengths in programming, team culture and partnership, functionality and layout. It also offered the best value for money solution for Singapore."
3 Dr Balakrishnan added: "SSHC provided a holistic strategy to promote sports participation, leisure, entertainment and lifestyle activities via a focus on community and grassroots sports. Its integrated approach will create foot traffic and promote vibrancy at the Sports Hub. Their strategy is supported by a comprehensive sporting calendar that guarantees at least 90 event days at the National Stadium and 46 at the Singapore Indoor Stadium. It consist of a well-balanced mix of local, regional and international sporting events and activities targeted at various different target segments."
4 Examples of innovative and sustainable programmes and events include onsite media broadcasting services, organising an ASEAN clubs soccer league, a Singapore national games and international cricket matches.
5 The SSHC has also proposed setting up a 'Premier Park Foundation' or PPF, which reinvests a significant portion of Sport's Hub's commercial revenues into the project. The PPF will be used to fund future events, activities and facilities.
6 The PPF ensures a sustainable programming model and is a testimony of SSHC's long-term partnership commitment to the project. SSHC's venue operator, Global Spectrum, has also taken an equity stake in the project, further highlighting the consortium's commitment to deliver world class programming to the Sports Hub.
7 SSHC has provided a circular design layout with the various sports and commercial facilities surrounding the dome-shaped new National Stadium. The design is well integrated with the consortium's events and programming strategy, and has the flexibility and scalability for hosting large-scale events, including the National Day Parade. The Sports Hub's critical mass of facilities and attractions would ensure that the venue is teeming with activity and buzz on event and non-event days.
8 "We believe the strength of the SSHC's proposals, together with SSC's Sporting Singapore initiatives, will place the Sports Hub alongside the world's best and most dynamic sports, entertainment and lifestyle venues. With the advantage of a 25-year legacy planning horizon, and the best of breed team from the SSHC, the Singapore Sports Hub can create the same buzz like other world class venues such as the Reebok stadium in Manchester, Sydney Olympic Park in Australia and Madison Square Gardens in New York." added Dr Balakrishnan.
9 With the appointment of the SSHC as the preferred bidder, the project will now enter into the Financial Close stage, during which details of the contract will be ironed out. The signing of the project agreement is scheduled for end March 2008.
10 Post-Financial Close, the existing National Stadium is expected to be demolished, and construction for the new Sports Hub will start. This is expected to take place from April 2008. SSHC will also take over the operations of Indoor Stadium from April 2008.
11 The Sports Hub is expected to be ready in end 2011.
12 The Net Present Value of the total costs the government will pay over the 25-year tenure amounts to S$1.87b.
13 The Sports Hub is believed to be the first and largest sports facilities infrastructure PPP project in the world and is also Singapore's largest and flagship PPP project of this nature.
ANNEX D – Sports Hub Project Milestones
15 Dec 2005 - Launch of pre-qualification stage of tender process
28 Feb 2006 - Submission of pre-qualification documents
26 Apr 2006 - Pre-qualification of short-listed consortiums
Jul 2006 - Launch of invitation to Tender (ITT) stage of tender process
28 Feb 2007 - Close of ITT – consortiums submit their proposals
Jul 2007 - Sports Hub tender enters Final Clarification Stage
19 Jan 2008 - Preferred bidder appointed
31 Mar 2008 - Financial close, construction start date
End 2011 - Sports Hub operationally ready
Singapore, 19 January 2008 - The Singapore Government announced today that it has selected the Singapore Sports Hub Consortium (SSHC) led by Dragages Singapore Pte Ltd as the preferred bidder for the Singapore Sports Hub Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) project, subject to finalisation of contract details.
2 Making the announcement at a press conference, Minister for Community Development Youth and Sports, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan said: "We are pleased to announce the selection of the Singapore Sports Hub Consortium, led by Dragages Singapore Private Limited, as the preferred bidder for the Singapore Sports Hub Public-Private Partnership project. The Consortium displayed significant strengths in programming, team culture and partnership, functionality and layout. It also offered the best value for money solution for Singapore."
3 Dr Balakrishnan added: "SSHC provided a holistic strategy to promote sports participation, leisure, entertainment and lifestyle activities via a focus on community and grassroots sports. Its integrated approach will create foot traffic and promote vibrancy at the Sports Hub. Their strategy is supported by a comprehensive sporting calendar that guarantees at least 90 event days at the National Stadium and 46 at the Singapore Indoor Stadium. It consist of a well-balanced mix of local, regional and international sporting events and activities targeted at various different target segments."
4 Examples of innovative and sustainable programmes and events include onsite media broadcasting services, organising an ASEAN clubs soccer league, a Singapore national games and international cricket matches.
5 The SSHC has also proposed setting up a 'Premier Park Foundation' or PPF, which reinvests a significant portion of Sport's Hub's commercial revenues into the project. The PPF will be used to fund future events, activities and facilities.
6 The PPF ensures a sustainable programming model and is a testimony of SSHC's long-term partnership commitment to the project. SSHC's venue operator, Global Spectrum, has also taken an equity stake in the project, further highlighting the consortium's commitment to deliver world class programming to the Sports Hub.
7 SSHC has provided a circular design layout with the various sports and commercial facilities surrounding the dome-shaped new National Stadium. The design is well integrated with the consortium's events and programming strategy, and has the flexibility and scalability for hosting large-scale events, including the National Day Parade. The Sports Hub's critical mass of facilities and attractions would ensure that the venue is teeming with activity and buzz on event and non-event days.
8 "We believe the strength of the SSHC's proposals, together with SSC's Sporting Singapore initiatives, will place the Sports Hub alongside the world's best and most dynamic sports, entertainment and lifestyle venues. With the advantage of a 25-year legacy planning horizon, and the best of breed team from the SSHC, the Singapore Sports Hub can create the same buzz like other world class venues such as the Reebok stadium in Manchester, Sydney Olympic Park in Australia and Madison Square Gardens in New York." added Dr Balakrishnan.
9 With the appointment of the SSHC as the preferred bidder, the project will now enter into the Financial Close stage, during which details of the contract will be ironed out. The signing of the project agreement is scheduled for end March 2008.
10 Post-Financial Close, the existing National Stadium is expected to be demolished, and construction for the new Sports Hub will start. This is expected to take place from April 2008. SSHC will also take over the operations of Indoor Stadium from April 2008.
11 The Sports Hub is expected to be ready in end 2011.
12 The Net Present Value of the total costs the government will pay over the 25-year tenure amounts to S$1.87b.
13 The Sports Hub is believed to be the first and largest sports facilities infrastructure PPP project in the world and is also Singapore's largest and flagship PPP project of this nature.
ANNEX D – Sports Hub Project Milestones
15 Dec 2005 - Launch of pre-qualification stage of tender process
28 Feb 2006 - Submission of pre-qualification documents
26 Apr 2006 - Pre-qualification of short-listed consortiums
Jul 2006 - Launch of invitation to Tender (ITT) stage of tender process
28 Feb 2007 - Close of ITT – consortiums submit their proposals
Jul 2007 - Sports Hub tender enters Final Clarification Stage
19 Jan 2008 - Preferred bidder appointed
31 Mar 2008 - Financial close, construction start date
End 2011 - Sports Hub operationally ready
早报: 世界银行副行长林毅夫：中国经济未来二三十年仍会年增10%
世界银行副行长林毅夫：中国经济未来二三十年仍会年增10%
2008-02-22
(柏林新华电）世界银行副行长兼首席经济学家林毅夫指出，他对中国经济未来二三十年的发展前景持乐观态度，认为广受关注的能源问题不会成为中国发展的瓶颈，并预测中国经济有望在未来20年至30年仍然保持10%左右的成长率。
据新华社自柏林报道，林毅夫前日在参加德国外交政策协会举办的中国经济讨论会后，接受记者采访时表示，中国的经济发展具有不可忽视的潜力。除了中国拥有继续吸引外资的优势外，中国的国民消费以及服务业发展将在中国经济总量中占据越来越重要的地位。
林毅夫表示，能源价格居高将迫使中国国内的企业具备更强的节能动力，以提高能源使用效率，而政府也会出台更多节能政策来应对能源短缺问题。
与此同时，由于能源需求较大，会有更多的公司扩大能源开采的规模、增加储备，以增加能源的供应量。因此从长期看，能源本身不会成为限制中国发展的瓶颈。
世界银行行长佐利克在2月4日正式任命中国经济学家林毅夫为世界银行副行长兼首席经济学家。这是世行首次任命发展中国家人士出任这一要职。
林毅夫说，这是世界银行对发展中国家、尤其是中国发展成功经验的重视。不过他表示，每一个国家的国情都有所不同，成功的经验不能照抄，问题的最终解决要取决于那个国家的具体情况。
2008-02-22
(柏林新华电）世界银行副行长兼首席经济学家林毅夫指出，他对中国经济未来二三十年的发展前景持乐观态度，认为广受关注的能源问题不会成为中国发展的瓶颈，并预测中国经济有望在未来20年至30年仍然保持10%左右的成长率。
据新华社自柏林报道，林毅夫前日在参加德国外交政策协会举办的中国经济讨论会后，接受记者采访时表示，中国的经济发展具有不可忽视的潜力。除了中国拥有继续吸引外资的优势外，中国的国民消费以及服务业发展将在中国经济总量中占据越来越重要的地位。
林毅夫表示，能源价格居高将迫使中国国内的企业具备更强的节能动力，以提高能源使用效率，而政府也会出台更多节能政策来应对能源短缺问题。
与此同时，由于能源需求较大，会有更多的公司扩大能源开采的规模、增加储备，以增加能源的供应量。因此从长期看，能源本身不会成为限制中国发展的瓶颈。
世界银行行长佐利克在2月4日正式任命中国经济学家林毅夫为世界银行副行长兼首席经济学家。这是世行首次任命发展中国家人士出任这一要职。
林毅夫说，这是世界银行对发展中国家、尤其是中国发展成功经验的重视。不过他表示，每一个国家的国情都有所不同，成功的经验不能照抄，问题的最终解决要取决于那个国家的具体情况。
早报: 中国财经: 全球十大市值公司 中国占四席
2007-10-19全球十大市值公司 中国占四席
香港／北京讯）A股和港股的连续上涨，已使得四家中国公司进入了全球上市公司市值前10名。据彭博社的数据，截至10月16日收盘，全球市值最高的10大上市公司中，中国公司已经和美国公司平分秋色，各占四席。
其中中石油排名第二，其余三家中国公司分别是中国移动、工商银行和中国石化(PetroChina)，排名依次为第四、第五和第八。
工商银行是全球最大市值的银行，其市值高达3357亿8500万美元（4909亿新元）。
从10月7日开始，在香港上市的中石油连续五个交易日以上涨收盘，累计涨幅达到了33.19%，使其市值一举超越通用电气公司，成为全球第二大上市公司，仅次于艾克森美孚（Exxon Mobil Corp）。
10月16日，尽管中石油股价小幅下跌了2.13%，但其收盘时总市值已高达4290亿4200万美元，逼近市值5254亿5300万美元的埃克森美孚公司，而排名第三的通用电气的市值则为4177亿3700万美元。
另外两家进入前10名的美国公司是微软和美国电报电话公司（AT&T）。微软排名第六位，美国电报电话公司排名第10位。壳牌石油公司(Royal Dutch Shell)和俄罗斯天然气公司(OAO Gazprom)分列第七和第九位。
不过，由于中国石化股价昨日在香港股市曾一度跳升8.8％，其市值达到2万1000亿港元（4038亿新元）也因此超越了壳牌公司，成为全球第四大石油与煤汽公司。在这10大市值排名中，也从第八位晋级到第七位。但在劲升过后，中国石化股价昨日闭市时回落到12.36港元，其市值也随之走低。
以10月16日收盘价计算，市值列入10大的四家中国公司的总市值已经高达1万4039亿美元，同四家美国公司的合计总市值1万4833亿美元，仅相差不到800亿美元。
根据彭博社提供的数据，中石油、中国移动、工商银行和中国石化的市盈率分别达到了22.56倍、41.85倍、45.28倍和16.06倍。其中，工行的市盈率在这10家公司中最高，而四家中国公司的算术平均市盈率也达到了31.44倍，远远高于10家上市公司的平均市盈率21.45倍。
第一财经日报》报道，中信金通证券首席分析师钱向劲认为，中国宏观经济的不断走强，以及近期A股市场的连续上涨，资金积极投入中国公司。A股市场高估值，一定程度上也抬高了这些在境外上市公司的股价和估值水平。这种高估值一定程度上反映了市场的不成熟，另一方面，对于在一个不断发展的经济体中成长的公司来说，略高的估值也是合理的。
香港／北京讯）A股和港股的连续上涨，已使得四家中国公司进入了全球上市公司市值前10名。据彭博社的数据，截至10月16日收盘，全球市值最高的10大上市公司中，中国公司已经和美国公司平分秋色，各占四席。
其中中石油排名第二，其余三家中国公司分别是中国移动、工商银行和中国石化(PetroChina)，排名依次为第四、第五和第八。
工商银行是全球最大市值的银行，其市值高达3357亿8500万美元（4909亿新元）。
从10月7日开始，在香港上市的中石油连续五个交易日以上涨收盘，累计涨幅达到了33.19%，使其市值一举超越通用电气公司，成为全球第二大上市公司，仅次于艾克森美孚（Exxon Mobil Corp）。
10月16日，尽管中石油股价小幅下跌了2.13%，但其收盘时总市值已高达4290亿4200万美元，逼近市值5254亿5300万美元的埃克森美孚公司，而排名第三的通用电气的市值则为4177亿3700万美元。
另外两家进入前10名的美国公司是微软和美国电报电话公司（AT&T）。微软排名第六位，美国电报电话公司排名第10位。壳牌石油公司(Royal Dutch Shell)和俄罗斯天然气公司(OAO Gazprom)分列第七和第九位。
不过，由于中国石化股价昨日在香港股市曾一度跳升8.8％，其市值达到2万1000亿港元（4038亿新元）也因此超越了壳牌公司，成为全球第四大石油与煤汽公司。在这10大市值排名中，也从第八位晋级到第七位。但在劲升过后，中国石化股价昨日闭市时回落到12.36港元，其市值也随之走低。
以10月16日收盘价计算，市值列入10大的四家中国公司的总市值已经高达1万4039亿美元，同四家美国公司的合计总市值1万4833亿美元，仅相差不到800亿美元。
根据彭博社提供的数据，中石油、中国移动、工商银行和中国石化的市盈率分别达到了22.56倍、41.85倍、45.28倍和16.06倍。其中，工行的市盈率在这10家公司中最高，而四家中国公司的算术平均市盈率也达到了31.44倍，远远高于10家上市公司的平均市盈率21.45倍。
第一财经日报》报道，中信金通证券首席分析师钱向劲认为，中国宏观经济的不断走强，以及近期A股市场的连续上涨，资金积极投入中国公司。A股市场高估值，一定程度上也抬高了这些在境外上市公司的股价和估值水平。这种高估值一定程度上反映了市场的不成熟，另一方面，对于在一个不断发展的经济体中成长的公司来说，略高的估值也是合理的。
BT: China's annual GDP growth eased to 11.5 per cent in the third quarter
Business Times - 26 Oct 2007
China's economy slows a little, but remains red hot11.5% Q3 growth brings it closer to overtaking Germany as world's third-largest economy
(BEIJING)
China's annual GDP growth eased to 11.5 per cent in the third quarter, but the slowdown from a 12-year high of 11.9 per cent in the second quarter was not enough to dispel expectations of fresh policy curbs to stave off overheating.
The outcome, which was in line with market forecasts, means China could well grow this year at the fastest rate since 1993 and brings it closer to overtaking Germany as the world's third-largest economy.
'Industrialisation, urbanisation and China's global manufacturing power are the three engines that continue to drive very high growth,' said Chen Xingdong, chief economist at BNP Paribas Peregrine in Beijing.GDP over the first three quarters expanded 11.5 per cent and for the first time this year, China will contribute more than the United States to global growth, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Although that is a source of pride for the ruling Communist Party, which ended its five-yearly Congress on Monday, policymakers know they can have too much of a good thing.Li Xiaochao, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, told a news conference yesterday that the problems facing the economy were still pronounced, with growth and inflation still too high.
The economy has now grown at a double-digit pace for seven quarters, but at a cost of environmental degradation, galloping energy consumption and rising inflationary pressure.
Premier Wen Jiabao said on Wednesday his government would keep a tight grip on policy for the rest of the year to curb inflation and brake investment, the main driver of growth.'What is needed is more attention to the quality of growth and environmental protection,' Mr Chen said.
The statistics office, which released the growth figures, confirmed a disclosure by a senior official last week that annual consumer inflation slowed to 6.2 per cent in September from a decade- high 6.5 per cent in August.
Economists took heart from the moderation but said the central bank, which has already raised interest rates five times this year, was likely to jack up borrowing costs further.'Inflation was lower than August, but one month's figures do not mean a reversal in the uptrend.
Data from the real economy would suggest otherwise,' said Chris Leung, an economist with DBS in Hong Kong.'I expect an interest rate rise any time.
It's safe to say there'll be one more rise this year. I'd not be surprised if there were two,' he said.But Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities in Beijing, said central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan was likely to wait and see how the economy responds to past belt-tightening.
'I think the various tightening steps are beginning to take hold. Investment is still fast, but not as fast as I had expected,' he said. -- Reuters
China's economy slows a little, but remains red hot11.5% Q3 growth brings it closer to overtaking Germany as world's third-largest economy
(BEIJING)
China's annual GDP growth eased to 11.5 per cent in the third quarter, but the slowdown from a 12-year high of 11.9 per cent in the second quarter was not enough to dispel expectations of fresh policy curbs to stave off overheating.
The outcome, which was in line with market forecasts, means China could well grow this year at the fastest rate since 1993 and brings it closer to overtaking Germany as the world's third-largest economy.
'Industrialisation, urbanisation and China's global manufacturing power are the three engines that continue to drive very high growth,' said Chen Xingdong, chief economist at BNP Paribas Peregrine in Beijing.GDP over the first three quarters expanded 11.5 per cent and for the first time this year, China will contribute more than the United States to global growth, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Although that is a source of pride for the ruling Communist Party, which ended its five-yearly Congress on Monday, policymakers know they can have too much of a good thing.Li Xiaochao, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, told a news conference yesterday that the problems facing the economy were still pronounced, with growth and inflation still too high.
The economy has now grown at a double-digit pace for seven quarters, but at a cost of environmental degradation, galloping energy consumption and rising inflationary pressure.
Premier Wen Jiabao said on Wednesday his government would keep a tight grip on policy for the rest of the year to curb inflation and brake investment, the main driver of growth.'What is needed is more attention to the quality of growth and environmental protection,' Mr Chen said.
The statistics office, which released the growth figures, confirmed a disclosure by a senior official last week that annual consumer inflation slowed to 6.2 per cent in September from a decade- high 6.5 per cent in August.
Economists took heart from the moderation but said the central bank, which has already raised interest rates five times this year, was likely to jack up borrowing costs further.'Inflation was lower than August, but one month's figures do not mean a reversal in the uptrend.
Data from the real economy would suggest otherwise,' said Chris Leung, an economist with DBS in Hong Kong.'I expect an interest rate rise any time.
It's safe to say there'll be one more rise this year. I'd not be surprised if there were two,' he said.But Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities in Beijing, said central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan was likely to wait and see how the economy responds to past belt-tightening.
'I think the various tightening steps are beginning to take hold. Investment is still fast, but not as fast as I had expected,' he said. -- Reuters
Thursday, February 21, 2008
BT: Plan to defer public works will have little impact
Business Times - 21 Feb 2008
Plan to defer public works will have little impact: report
Delaying $3b worth of projects won't help relieve building demand, says RLB
By ARTHUR SIM
CONSTRUCTION industry experts are seeking to play down the significance of the government's moves to ease the pressure on the industry's costs.
The government is intending to defer an additional $1 billion worth of public-sector projects to help the industry - a move that follows the decision last November to postpone $2 billion worth of projects.
A report by construction cost consultancy Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) said that the deferring of public-sector projects 'is expected to have a limited impact on relieving construction demand as it will represent around 10 per cent of annual demand'.
Latest estimates by the Building and Construction Authority value construction contracts awarded this year at up to $27 billion.
RLB's latest figures for its tender price index shows that it also increased by 23 per cent as at the end of the third quarter last year. It said that rising construction costs are attributed to increased costs of foreign construction labour and professional expertise, materials and equipment costs, as well as on- and off-site overheads.
Indicative construction costs of an office building in the CBD of up to 41-55 storeys is between $353- $438.5 psf of gross floor area (GFA).
The construction costs of a luxury condominium is between $325.2 and $441.3 psf of GFA, while a five-star hotel will cost between $464.5 and $627 psf of GFA to build.
Good quality retail space costs $311-$367 psf of GFA to build.
In terms of key construction materials, concreting sand has shown the highest year-on-year increase, jumping 160.3 per cent as at November 2007. The price of granite aggregate increased by 32.1 per cent in the same period while the price of ready mix concrete increased by 71.4 per cent.
However, RLB noted that prices did generally 'moderate to a downward trend' for the second half of 2007, the period that coincides with the start of the US sub-prime loans crisis and the global credit crunch.
Indeed, RLB added: 'Whilst the Singapore construction market will be somewhat buffered in the short term by existing development commitments within the domestic market, it will be difficult to predict the impact of the global financial crisis in the medium run.'
RLB does believe that on the back of rising crude oil prices and growing building activity particularly in the Middle East, China and India, price gains are anticipated for the first half of 2008.
Citing other industry sources, RLB said that world steel demand is forecast to reach over 1.45 million tonnes in 2011, which represents an 88 per cent growth in the ten years from 2001.
'However, a slowdown in the rate of demand growth is anticipated towards the end of the current decade,' it added.
Plan to defer public works will have little impact: report
Delaying $3b worth of projects won't help relieve building demand, says RLB
By ARTHUR SIM
CONSTRUCTION industry experts are seeking to play down the significance of the government's moves to ease the pressure on the industry's costs.
The government is intending to defer an additional $1 billion worth of public-sector projects to help the industry - a move that follows the decision last November to postpone $2 billion worth of projects.
A report by construction cost consultancy Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) said that the deferring of public-sector projects 'is expected to have a limited impact on relieving construction demand as it will represent around 10 per cent of annual demand'.
Latest estimates by the Building and Construction Authority value construction contracts awarded this year at up to $27 billion.
RLB's latest figures for its tender price index shows that it also increased by 23 per cent as at the end of the third quarter last year. It said that rising construction costs are attributed to increased costs of foreign construction labour and professional expertise, materials and equipment costs, as well as on- and off-site overheads.
Indicative construction costs of an office building in the CBD of up to 41-55 storeys is between $353- $438.5 psf of gross floor area (GFA).
The construction costs of a luxury condominium is between $325.2 and $441.3 psf of GFA, while a five-star hotel will cost between $464.5 and $627 psf of GFA to build.
Good quality retail space costs $311-$367 psf of GFA to build.
In terms of key construction materials, concreting sand has shown the highest year-on-year increase, jumping 160.3 per cent as at November 2007. The price of granite aggregate increased by 32.1 per cent in the same period while the price of ready mix concrete increased by 71.4 per cent.
However, RLB noted that prices did generally 'moderate to a downward trend' for the second half of 2007, the period that coincides with the start of the US sub-prime loans crisis and the global credit crunch.
Indeed, RLB added: 'Whilst the Singapore construction market will be somewhat buffered in the short term by existing development commitments within the domestic market, it will be difficult to predict the impact of the global financial crisis in the medium run.'
RLB does believe that on the back of rising crude oil prices and growing building activity particularly in the Middle East, China and India, price gains are anticipated for the first half of 2008.
Citing other industry sources, RLB said that world steel demand is forecast to reach over 1.45 million tonnes in 2011, which represents an 88 per cent growth in the ten years from 2001.
'However, a slowdown in the rate of demand growth is anticipated towards the end of the current decade,' it added.
CSC: BAGS MARINA BAY FINANCIAL CENTRE CONTRACT $118M
CSC BAGS MARINA BAY FINANCIAL CENTRE CONTRACT
Latest win boosts order book to S$448m
SINGAPORE, 31 January 2008 – Leading foundation and geotechnical engineering specialist, CSC Holdings Limited ("CSC" or "the Group"), has seen a further boost to its portfolio by bagging the foundation works contract for phase two of the Marina Bay Financial Centre (BFC) Commercial Tower.
The contract was awarded by Central Boulevard Development Pte Ltd – a joint venture between Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited, Hongkong Land Limited and Keppel Land Limited.
Work at the Marina BFC Commercial Tower will involve bored piling, diaphragm wall and ground improvement works, and is scheduled to commence at the end of this month and be
completed by the first quarter of 2009.
This latest contract win was one of four foundation works secured by CSC in the past three weeks. The other three are Alexandra Industrial Park, Lonza Biologics Plant (Phase Three) at Tuas, and public housing projects at Choa Chu Kang/Yishun. Collectively, the contracts are about S$118 million, with the bulk of it being contributed by the Marina BFC.
Mr See Yen Tarn, Chief Executive Officer of CSC Holdings Limited said, "Our strategy of extending our capabilities via strategic acquisitions as well as organic growth has enabled us to become the only ground engineering specialist in Singapore, who can provide a full range of foundation works. This has not only served us well in giving us an edge in the tendering process of various foundation contracts, but also laid the ground work for future growth."
The four new contracts wins come just three weeks after CSC announced on 10 January
2008 that it had secured several foundation contracts amounting to S$120 million. The Group’s order book to date stands at S$448 million, with most of the projects to be completed within the next 12 months.
For the six months ended 30 September 2007, the Group’s revenue was S$185 million with profit after tax of S$20 million. These have surpassed the Group’s revenue of S$127 million and profit after tax of S$9.3 million respectively for the full financial year ended 31 March 2007.
Preliminary figures released in mid-January 2008 by the Building and Construction Authority ("BCA") indicate that Construction demand in Year 2007 was approximately S$24.5 billion.
Expected demand for Year 2008 is between S$23 billion and S$27 billion. The Land and Transport Authority has also announced its plan to construct 4 new MRT Lines in addition to the 3 lines which are under construction. In addition, 2 new Expressways will also be added to our land transport network.
The Group sees many opportunities in local market with the expected increase in infrastructure works (e.g. MRT Lines), private/public housing projects and institutional projects, amongst others. Added Mr. See, "While we continue to ride on our strength at home, we will also aim to further establish our overseas presence to ensure substainable growth of the Group beyond the current construction boom in Singapore".
Latest win boosts order book to S$448m
SINGAPORE, 31 January 2008 – Leading foundation and geotechnical engineering specialist, CSC Holdings Limited ("CSC" or "the Group"), has seen a further boost to its portfolio by bagging the foundation works contract for phase two of the Marina Bay Financial Centre (BFC) Commercial Tower.
The contract was awarded by Central Boulevard Development Pte Ltd – a joint venture between Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited, Hongkong Land Limited and Keppel Land Limited.
Work at the Marina BFC Commercial Tower will involve bored piling, diaphragm wall and ground improvement works, and is scheduled to commence at the end of this month and be
completed by the first quarter of 2009.
This latest contract win was one of four foundation works secured by CSC in the past three weeks. The other three are Alexandra Industrial Park, Lonza Biologics Plant (Phase Three) at Tuas, and public housing projects at Choa Chu Kang/Yishun. Collectively, the contracts are about S$118 million, with the bulk of it being contributed by the Marina BFC.
Mr See Yen Tarn, Chief Executive Officer of CSC Holdings Limited said, "Our strategy of extending our capabilities via strategic acquisitions as well as organic growth has enabled us to become the only ground engineering specialist in Singapore, who can provide a full range of foundation works. This has not only served us well in giving us an edge in the tendering process of various foundation contracts, but also laid the ground work for future growth."
The four new contracts wins come just three weeks after CSC announced on 10 January
2008 that it had secured several foundation contracts amounting to S$120 million. The Group’s order book to date stands at S$448 million, with most of the projects to be completed within the next 12 months.
For the six months ended 30 September 2007, the Group’s revenue was S$185 million with profit after tax of S$20 million. These have surpassed the Group’s revenue of S$127 million and profit after tax of S$9.3 million respectively for the full financial year ended 31 March 2007.
Preliminary figures released in mid-January 2008 by the Building and Construction Authority ("BCA") indicate that Construction demand in Year 2007 was approximately S$24.5 billion.
Expected demand for Year 2008 is between S$23 billion and S$27 billion. The Land and Transport Authority has also announced its plan to construct 4 new MRT Lines in addition to the 3 lines which are under construction. In addition, 2 new Expressways will also be added to our land transport network.
The Group sees many opportunities in local market with the expected increase in infrastructure works (e.g. MRT Lines), private/public housing projects and institutional projects, amongst others. Added Mr. See, "While we continue to ride on our strength at home, we will also aim to further establish our overseas presence to ensure substainable growth of the Group beyond the current construction boom in Singapore".
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
The Economist: Singapore uopdate, Feb 2008
Singapore - News this month
Transport for the future
Singapore's government will more than double its spending on transport infrastructure in the next 12 years. Delivering the annual budget on February 15th, the finance minister, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, said S$50 billion ($35.4 billion) would be spent on new motorways and two new lines for the light-railway network. The government hopes the projects will reduce road congestion, which has increased by a quarter since 1999, boost Singapore’s ability to absorb a growing population and raise property prices in outlying areas.
Storm warning
Singapore's prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, prepared his countrymen for tougher times ahead in his traditional message of welcome for the Chinese new year. Mr Lee spoke on February 5th of a need to “gird ourselves for further uncertainties”, highlighting worries about the impact of a possible recession in America and an ensuing global slowdown. He admitted that the rising prices of food and energy were a concern locally, but ruled out the introduction of subsidies for essential items.
Transport for the future
Singapore's government will more than double its spending on transport infrastructure in the next 12 years. Delivering the annual budget on February 15th, the finance minister, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, said S$50 billion ($35.4 billion) would be spent on new motorways and two new lines for the light-railway network. The government hopes the projects will reduce road congestion, which has increased by a quarter since 1999, boost Singapore’s ability to absorb a growing population and raise property prices in outlying areas.
Storm warning
Singapore's prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, prepared his countrymen for tougher times ahead in his traditional message of welcome for the Chinese new year. Mr Lee spoke on February 5th of a need to “gird ourselves for further uncertainties”, highlighting worries about the impact of a possible recession in America and an ensuing global slowdown. He admitted that the rising prices of food and energy were a concern locally, but ruled out the introduction of subsidies for essential items.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
BT: Lifelong Income scheme comes with array of choices
Business Times - 13 Feb 2008
Lifelong Income scheme comes with array of choices
Permutations reflect diverse situations of Singaporeans
By CHEN HUIFEN
(SINGAPORE) With 12 possible permutations that one can opt into, Singaporeans turning 55 years old in 2013 and after are set to face a mind-boggling array of options on their participation in the CPF-backed Lifelong Income (LI) scheme.
But the National Longevity Insurance committee, which came up with the recommendations for the scheme, said that the feature of letting members choose their own plans reflects the diverse situation of Singaporeans.
There will be six choices on when the payouts can begin, with the earliest start date set at the age of 65 and the latest at 90. Singaporeans on the scheme can also decide whether or not they want to leave any unused payouts to their beneficiaries upon death.
'It's administratively burdensome but it's something that we have to live with in order to trade off choices,' said committee member Zulkifli Baharudin, who is also managing director of Global Business Integrators Pte Ltd.
The LI scheme works by apportioning part of the cash balance of a Singaporean's Minimum Sum into what is called the Refundable Premium (RP). This happens at age 55. The rest will remain in his Retirement Account (RA).
Assuming that a Singaporean chooses to get his LI payout at 80, his RA will start paying him a monthly income from 65 until he reaches 80 years old. At this point, the RP kicks in to pay him the same monthly income until his death.
Should he choose the refund option upon death, his beneficiaries will get the balance in his RA, if any, and any remaining unpaid amounts from his RP. But if he opts for no refund, then his beneficiaries will only get the balance in his RA, if there is any, and none from his RP.
Premiums and payouts will vary in accordance with the age that members choose to kickstart their LI and whether they want a refund in the event of death. The earlier their LI starts, the more money they will receive each month, but they will also have to carve out a bigger portion of their Minimum Sum at 55 for the RP to fund the plan. Hence, less RA balance would go to their beneficiaries if they pass away before their LI begins.
Conversely, if they receive their LI later, say at 90, their RA portion is stretched to last longer and the premium for LI will be less. All other things being equal, there will be more RA left for beneficiaries upon their early demise.
At the extreme end of the spectrum, should a CPF member choose not to receive any refund and to start his LI at 65, all his Minimum Sum will go into the RP. This permutation will lead to the highest payout among all options, but there would be nothing for beneficiaries should death come before 65.
Once members decide on their choice of LI scheme at 55, they will not be able to change their minds. However, additional CPF contributions - either from property sales, continued employment or proceeds from the CPF Investment Scheme - after the age of 55 may be included in the LI to raise the payout sum.
To be implemented in 2013, the scheme will auto-include those who have at least $40,000 in Minimum Sum when they are 55 years old. Committee chairman Lim Pin said the threshold sum balances the need to have the maximum possible number of people on board, with a reasonable payout level. About 75 per cent of active CPF members in the first cohort of the scheme will have at least $40,000.
Older members and those with less than $40,000 are encouraged to opt into the scheme as well. The government is expected to facilitate this through incentives.
Actual premiums and payouts will be determined by an independent actuarial consultant and reviewed periodically to reflect changes in mortality rates, as well as the social and economic situation of Singapore.
'The caveat in all this is that the scheme is not cast in iron,' said Prof Lim. 'We are prepared to change and to modify if events show that we have to do so.'
BT: Income that stretches a lifetime, under new scheme
Business Times - 13 Feb 2008
Income that stretches a lifetime, under new scheme
Lifelong Income scheme to ensure Singaporeans have income as long as they live
By CHUANG PECK MING
(SINGAPORE) Singaporeans were yesterday given a detailed look at the scheme that could change the complexion of their retirement years. It comes with the promise that they will have a regular income, as long as they live.
For this, the annuity plan crafted by the National Longevity Insurance Committee will dovetail neatly with savings that members have in the CPF Minimum Sum scheme - their so-called Retirement Account.
On turning 65, a CPF member will first start getting a payout from his Retirement Account. Under the current scheme, this continues for 20 years. But now, at whatever age he chooses - and there is a host of options available - he can start receiving the same amount from the national Lifelong Income (LI) scheme. And this will continue for as long as he lives.
Related link:
Click here for NLIC's report
In fact, CPF members are likely to receive higher income from their Minimum Sum account without more top-ups, thanks to the extra one percentage point interest on the first $60,000 which CPF is offering and the benefit of pooling.
'The key point is (the LI scheme) will strengthen the CPF system to provide lifelong income,' the committee's chairman Lim Pin said yesterday when its report was made public.
In accepting the committee's recommendations on behalf of the government, Manpower Minister Ng Eng Hen said: 'The LI scheme will greatly enhance CPF savings for members. Under the old system, many would have depleted their savings after 20 years, with many more years to live. With the LI scheme, participants need not worry that they will outlive their CPF savings. They will receive an income for as long as they live.'
According to the committee, half of CPF members will outlive their CPF savings in the old system - and the number will rise as Singaporeans live longer.
In coming up with the LI scheme, the committee has taken in the views of a broad spectrum of Singaporeans - and addressed their main concerns. Its report says the scheme is fair and affordable; offers options and flexibility in meeting different needs and circumstances; provides a steady income for life; and will be run by a trusted administrator - the CPF Board.
The scheme also provides for refund of unused premiums (minus interest) upon early death - a 'first', according to Professor Lim, also the chairman of the National Wages Council. He said other annuity plans do not have such provisions.
CPF members may also opt for no refund in return for higher payouts. But they could lose all their money in the Minimum Sum if they die early, if they make this choice. This is particularly so if the members opt for their payouts to start at the age of 65, the payout age under the old Minimum Sum scheme. All their savings would have then been paid up in premiums to the LI fund, as premium payments start at age 55.
Members under the LI scheme could also opt for payouts at 70, 75, 80, 85 or 90, with 80 the default option. If they choose payouts beyond 65 with no refund, the portion of the Minimum Sum, or Retirement Account, still not paid up as premiums into the LI fund may return to their estate.
Where members opt for refund - and most are likely to do so - they will receive a higher income if they choose an early payout. The trade-off is they have to pay higher premiums and their refunds will be smaller than if they had opted for a later payout age.
The reverse is true if they opt for a later payout age. Actual payouts for individuals are proportional to their CPF balances in the Retirement Accounts.
The committee has ruled out inflation-indexed payouts because that would make the LI scheme expensive and require higher premiums to fund it.
'Taken together with the requirement to provide a reasonable minimum payout, it would mean that fewer members would be able to participate in the LI scheme,' its report explains.
The scheme, except for some exemptions, is compulsory and will come into effect in 2013. This means it will cover CPF members who are aged 50 and below this year. Older members will also be encouraged to join the LI scheme.
Some 35,000 CPF members will make up the first LI cohort, of which 60 per cent will have at least $67,000 in cash in their Retirement Accounts - or half of the full Minimum Sum - against a minimum requirement of $40,000 to join the scheme. They are expected to receive $600 a month for life.
The manpower minister noted that the LI scheme is 'correctly built on the foundations of self-provision and self-reliance which underpin our CPF system'. 'This is crucial to ensure the long-term sustainability of this scheme,' Dr Ng said.
The committee cautioned that operating the LI scheme involves significant mortality and investment risks over a very long time horizon. To ensure that it is financially sustainable over the long run, it said CPF 'must ensure at all times that assets can meet present and future liabilities'.
And 'premiums and payouts must be adjusted periodically to reflect actual mortality experience and investment returns'.
Income that stretches a lifetime, under new scheme
Lifelong Income scheme to ensure Singaporeans have income as long as they live
By CHUANG PECK MING
(SINGAPORE) Singaporeans were yesterday given a detailed look at the scheme that could change the complexion of their retirement years. It comes with the promise that they will have a regular income, as long as they live.
For this, the annuity plan crafted by the National Longevity Insurance Committee will dovetail neatly with savings that members have in the CPF Minimum Sum scheme - their so-called Retirement Account.
On turning 65, a CPF member will first start getting a payout from his Retirement Account. Under the current scheme, this continues for 20 years. But now, at whatever age he chooses - and there is a host of options available - he can start receiving the same amount from the national Lifelong Income (LI) scheme. And this will continue for as long as he lives.
Related link:
Click here for NLIC's report
In fact, CPF members are likely to receive higher income from their Minimum Sum account without more top-ups, thanks to the extra one percentage point interest on the first $60,000 which CPF is offering and the benefit of pooling.
'The key point is (the LI scheme) will strengthen the CPF system to provide lifelong income,' the committee's chairman Lim Pin said yesterday when its report was made public.
In accepting the committee's recommendations on behalf of the government, Manpower Minister Ng Eng Hen said: 'The LI scheme will greatly enhance CPF savings for members. Under the old system, many would have depleted their savings after 20 years, with many more years to live. With the LI scheme, participants need not worry that they will outlive their CPF savings. They will receive an income for as long as they live.'
According to the committee, half of CPF members will outlive their CPF savings in the old system - and the number will rise as Singaporeans live longer.
In coming up with the LI scheme, the committee has taken in the views of a broad spectrum of Singaporeans - and addressed their main concerns. Its report says the scheme is fair and affordable; offers options and flexibility in meeting different needs and circumstances; provides a steady income for life; and will be run by a trusted administrator - the CPF Board.
The scheme also provides for refund of unused premiums (minus interest) upon early death - a 'first', according to Professor Lim, also the chairman of the National Wages Council. He said other annuity plans do not have such provisions.
CPF members may also opt for no refund in return for higher payouts. But they could lose all their money in the Minimum Sum if they die early, if they make this choice. This is particularly so if the members opt for their payouts to start at the age of 65, the payout age under the old Minimum Sum scheme. All their savings would have then been paid up in premiums to the LI fund, as premium payments start at age 55.
Members under the LI scheme could also opt for payouts at 70, 75, 80, 85 or 90, with 80 the default option. If they choose payouts beyond 65 with no refund, the portion of the Minimum Sum, or Retirement Account, still not paid up as premiums into the LI fund may return to their estate.
Where members opt for refund - and most are likely to do so - they will receive a higher income if they choose an early payout. The trade-off is they have to pay higher premiums and their refunds will be smaller than if they had opted for a later payout age.
The reverse is true if they opt for a later payout age. Actual payouts for individuals are proportional to their CPF balances in the Retirement Accounts.
The committee has ruled out inflation-indexed payouts because that would make the LI scheme expensive and require higher premiums to fund it.
'Taken together with the requirement to provide a reasonable minimum payout, it would mean that fewer members would be able to participate in the LI scheme,' its report explains.
The scheme, except for some exemptions, is compulsory and will come into effect in 2013. This means it will cover CPF members who are aged 50 and below this year. Older members will also be encouraged to join the LI scheme.
Some 35,000 CPF members will make up the first LI cohort, of which 60 per cent will have at least $67,000 in cash in their Retirement Accounts - or half of the full Minimum Sum - against a minimum requirement of $40,000 to join the scheme. They are expected to receive $600 a month for life.
The manpower minister noted that the LI scheme is 'correctly built on the foundations of self-provision and self-reliance which underpin our CPF system'. 'This is crucial to ensure the long-term sustainability of this scheme,' Dr Ng said.
The committee cautioned that operating the LI scheme involves significant mortality and investment risks over a very long time horizon. To ensure that it is financially sustainable over the long run, it said CPF 'must ensure at all times that assets can meet present and future liabilities'.
And 'premiums and payouts must be adjusted periodically to reflect actual mortality experience and investment returns'.
Saturday, February 9, 2008
BT: What you need is an investment policy
Business Times - 06 Feb 2008
What you need is an investment policy
Defining your asset allocation is the first step and disciplined rebalancing is the next
By JANE BRYANT QUINN
DO you have a personal investment policy? If so, you knew how to behave these past four months. If not, you voyaged from 'should I sell?' to 'too late to sell now' to 'what stock market? I'm too busy playing Second Life'. When equities rise again, you'll claim that your strategy always has been to buy and hold.
Excuse me, but that's the dumb money. Lower prices for stocks are a chance to buy at, well, lower prices. They might drop even further. OK, that's another chance to buy. In the next up cycle, 2008 prices will look cheap.
The question is, how to execute a strategy like this, which requires you to ignore the protests that come from your gut. The answer is: Create an investment policy. When markets rise or dive, the policy tells you exactly what to do. Investment policies come in two parts.
First, an asset allocation. You decide what percentage of your money you will keep in stocks and how much in bonds. A simple example would be 60 per cent stocks, 40 per cent bonds. Within those broad categories, you create subsets - a certain percentage allocation to large and small US stocks, international stocks, emerging markets, Treasuries, high-yield bonds and so on.
The second part - the one most individuals ignore - is rebalancing. That means keeping your allocations at the levels you originally chose. If stocks go up by enough to make them worth 65 per cent of your portfolio, you're supposed to sell that surplus 5 per cent and put the proceeds into bonds. If the value of bonds goes up, you sell the surplus and invest it in stocks.
Years of research show that rebalancing adds value and reduces risk. You cash in some profits from the assets that went up and reinvest them in the assets that underperformed. When the market turns around, those underperforming assets will rise again. By rebalancing, you bought them cheap.
There's one big problem with individual investment policies. No one wants to sell stocks when they're going up. You let them become an ever larger portion of your portfolio. As a result, your so-called asset allocation plan is imaginary. You've put yourself into the hands of chance.
Take the recent stock market embarrassment. According to the formula, you should have trimmed your US stock allocation in late 2006 or early 2007. But you probably didn't pull the trigger. You were into your fifth year of higher prices and nothing in the news implied hard times. So you sat tight. Stocks topped in July. Today the Standard & Poor's 500 Index sells for less than it did in late 2006. Investors who failed to follow the formula gave up all of the intervening gains.
They also lost the money they'd have made by reinvesting in bonds. Stock investors hate bonds. They know that bonds only limp along. But guess what? Intermediate-term Treasuries returned a total of 10.3 per cent in 2007, according to Morningstar, compared with 5.8 per cent for the S&P 500. Over the past eight calendar years, Treasuries yielded 6.8 per cent compared with 1.7 per cent for the S&P 500.
Investment policies work but only if you follow though. Rebalance when any of your allocations falls 5 per cent out of line. Do it automatically, without second-guessing the discipline. If you're rebalancing now, you'd be buying the S&P and selling bonds. Investment policies give you a strategy - just what you need, in times like these\. \-- Bloomberg
What you need is an investment policy
Defining your asset allocation is the first step and disciplined rebalancing is the next
By JANE BRYANT QUINN
DO you have a personal investment policy? If so, you knew how to behave these past four months. If not, you voyaged from 'should I sell?' to 'too late to sell now' to 'what stock market? I'm too busy playing Second Life'. When equities rise again, you'll claim that your strategy always has been to buy and hold.
Excuse me, but that's the dumb money. Lower prices for stocks are a chance to buy at, well, lower prices. They might drop even further. OK, that's another chance to buy. In the next up cycle, 2008 prices will look cheap.
The question is, how to execute a strategy like this, which requires you to ignore the protests that come from your gut. The answer is: Create an investment policy. When markets rise or dive, the policy tells you exactly what to do. Investment policies come in two parts.
First, an asset allocation. You decide what percentage of your money you will keep in stocks and how much in bonds. A simple example would be 60 per cent stocks, 40 per cent bonds. Within those broad categories, you create subsets - a certain percentage allocation to large and small US stocks, international stocks, emerging markets, Treasuries, high-yield bonds and so on.
The second part - the one most individuals ignore - is rebalancing. That means keeping your allocations at the levels you originally chose. If stocks go up by enough to make them worth 65 per cent of your portfolio, you're supposed to sell that surplus 5 per cent and put the proceeds into bonds. If the value of bonds goes up, you sell the surplus and invest it in stocks.
Years of research show that rebalancing adds value and reduces risk. You cash in some profits from the assets that went up and reinvest them in the assets that underperformed. When the market turns around, those underperforming assets will rise again. By rebalancing, you bought them cheap.
There's one big problem with individual investment policies. No one wants to sell stocks when they're going up. You let them become an ever larger portion of your portfolio. As a result, your so-called asset allocation plan is imaginary. You've put yourself into the hands of chance.
Take the recent stock market embarrassment. According to the formula, you should have trimmed your US stock allocation in late 2006 or early 2007. But you probably didn't pull the trigger. You were into your fifth year of higher prices and nothing in the news implied hard times. So you sat tight. Stocks topped in July. Today the Standard & Poor's 500 Index sells for less than it did in late 2006. Investors who failed to follow the formula gave up all of the intervening gains.
They also lost the money they'd have made by reinvesting in bonds. Stock investors hate bonds. They know that bonds only limp along. But guess what? Intermediate-term Treasuries returned a total of 10.3 per cent in 2007, according to Morningstar, compared with 5.8 per cent for the S&P 500. Over the past eight calendar years, Treasuries yielded 6.8 per cent compared with 1.7 per cent for the S&P 500.
Investment policies work but only if you follow though. Rebalance when any of your allocations falls 5 per cent out of line. Do it automatically, without second-guessing the discipline. If you're rebalancing now, you'd be buying the S&P and selling bonds. Investment policies give you a strategy - just what you need, in times like these\. \-- Bloomberg
BT: In the hills, yet in town
In and out: (Above) A Khmer bust, the outdoor pavilion furnished with a sofa, the dining room and study room as seen from across the 17-m-long pool clad in slick, shimmering black Italian glass mosaic tiles, and the dining area with Khmer art pieces
Business Times - 09 Feb 2008
In the hills, yet in town
Swiss Nicole Cavalli, who is in wine business, and her husband 'enjoy every minute' in their bungalow near the crest of a hill overlooking a residential estate in Braddell Heights, reports GEOFFREY EU
THERE are many things that Nicole Cavalli likes about being Swiss, but after a dozen years in Asia - seven of them in Singapore - she's fallen in love with the tropical lifestyle. It's certainly different from her hometown outside Zurich, but now that it's deep into the winter months in Europe she readily appreciates the simpler things in life, such as walking about barefoot in her garden or leaving open the doors and windows to her house and letting a warm tropical breeze flow through.
Since moving into her new home, a distinctive-looking, wonderfully proportioned modern bungalow perched near the crest of a hill overlooking a residential estate in Braddell Heights, Ms Cavalli has had daily opportunities to enjoy the panoramic view and the assorted joys of living in
this part of the world.
Prior to building their own home, she and her husband had spent a significant amount of time looking at other houses, searching for a suitable plot of land to build on and selecting an architect to help create their two-storey, glass-and-granite encased vision of the ideal tropical habitat. Being Swiss, they had a pretty precise idea of what they wanted and now, after 18 months of construction and eight months after moving in, she says she couldn't be happier.
'I love it, we really enjoy every minute here,' says Ms Cavalli, who actually rented a house within walking distance of the site so that she could have daily access during the construction period.
She adds that it was worth taking the time to go through every painstaking detail with her builders. 'The Swiss are very meticulous,' she says. 'After being a supervisor at a construction site for 18 months, I said to my contractor: 'There is a reason why we are so good at making watches'.'
Ms Cavalli has also turned her ability to communicate with people into a fledgling business - she is the local distributor for Quinta do Zambujeiro, a line of fine Portuguese wines. The winery is located in south-east Portugal and is owned by a Swiss wine enthusiast who has been resident in Singapore for the past 30 years. Its prestige label - Zambujeiro - was recently given a rating of 95 points by wine guru Robert Parker.
'People here are very receptive to wines, and Portuguese wine is something different,' notes Ms Cavalli, who has lived in Vietnam and Hong Kong and makes it a point to start a business and keep herself occupied wherever she lives. She was also a competitive swimmer during her high school years, representing Switzerland at events like the 50m and 100m sprints. 'Then I realised that studying was more important than swimming,' she says. She studied law but never practised.
As might be expected, however, water still plays a significant part in Ms Cavalli's life. She worked closely with Rene Tan of RT + Q Architects on the design, and specified the importance of a lap pool. The architect drew up a plan that includes a 17-m-long swimming pool that runs along the length of the living room then wraps itself in an 'L' shape next to the dining area. The pool, clad in slick, shimmering black Italian glass mosaic tiles, has also been integrated into other parts of the house, most notably near the front entrance and in the guest powder room, which has a cool indoor-outdoor quality to it.
The environment outside - in the form of clear overhead panels that allow natural light to stream in and strategically placed openings in the roof - has also been incorporated into the other bathrooms in the four-bedroom house. Between the living and dining areas is a cozy study 'cube', lined with bookshelves and finished from floor to ceiling in wood. Meanwhile, a large water-feature wall finished in black slate runs alongside one of the boundary walls.
The main design features include an aluminium roof, matte surfaces finished in fair-faced concrete, and large sliding and folding glass doors throughout that allow natural light to stream in and open up to allow for natural ventilation. 'We wanted to have it as open as possible,' says Ms Cavalli. 'You can't have this in Switzerland. We wanted to have a proper garden and to have an open concept because we enjoy sitting in the outdoors.'
In the far corner of the garden, there is a pretty modern pavilion furnished with an outdoor sofa to lounge in and great views of the valley spread out in the near distance below. From the pavilion, it is also possible to enjoy views of the main house, especially during the evenings when it glimmers like an outsized light box.
Ms Cavalli employed the services of an Australian lighting consultant to ensure the house shines in more ways than one. In addition, all the rooms in the house, the kitchen as well as the outdoor pavilion are wired for sound, with high-tech Bang & Olufsen speakers throughout. There are more than half a kilometre of speaker cables running through the house, she says.
Perhaps the most commendable feature of Ms Cavalli's house on the hill is the fact that although the plot size is only about 8,300 square feet, there is a great sense of open space throughout, thanks in part to the unobstructed views and glass doors, but also to the fact that the building area occupies less than 30 per cent of the total plot. 'We realised that people like to build to the maximum allowable limit, but we were able to meet our space requirements and still have enough left for a nice garden,' she says.
'You hear birds and crickets - we are surrounded by nature, yet we are only seven minutes from the city centre,' she points outs. Ms Cavalli adds that because she and her husband didn't rush the construction stage, focused on getting the details right and insisted on using high-quality materials throughout, they are now reaping the benefits. 'It has been a very pleasant experience all the way,' she adds.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
CIMB: CSC TP $0.57
CSC Holdings (S$0.25) - Undervalued
- CIMB 31st-Jan-08
CSC's recent acquisitions and a 70:30 JV with Malaysia's IJM Corp are positive moves to expand its business and expertise, and should support future earnings growth.
The industry outlook remains robust with activities likely to accelerate in the coming months.
We upgrade our net profit forecasts for FY08-10 by 32-116% to capture better margins as well as higher revenue recognition from a robust order book of S$330m.
We upgrade the stock from Neutral to Outperform with a new target price of S$0.57 (previously S$0.36), after rolling forward our target price to CY09 but based on a lower 10x P/E compared to 15x previously.
- CIMB 31st-Jan-08
CSC's recent acquisitions and a 70:30 JV with Malaysia's IJM Corp are positive moves to expand its business and expertise, and should support future earnings growth.
The industry outlook remains robust with activities likely to accelerate in the coming months.
We upgrade our net profit forecasts for FY08-10 by 32-116% to capture better margins as well as higher revenue recognition from a robust order book of S$330m.
We upgrade the stock from Neutral to Outperform with a new target price of S$0.57 (previously S$0.36), after rolling forward our target price to CY09 but based on a lower 10x P/E compared to 15x previously.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Bloomberg: India grows 9.6% in FY07 at fastest pace since '89
Business Times - 01 Feb 2008
India grows 9.6% in FY07 at fastest pace since '89
(NEW DELHI) India's economy expanded 9.6 per cent last fiscal year, the fastest pace since 1989, as rising incomes spurred demand for cars, mobile phones and motorbikes.
The growth rate for the year that ended March 31, 2007, was revised up from 9.4 per cent estimated earlier, the government said in a statement in New Delhi yesterday. The government also raised growth in the year ended March 31, 2006, to 9.4 per cent.
Faster growth may enable Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to cut the budget deficit and spend more on plans aimed at reducing poverty in a nation where the World Bank estimates more than half of the 1.1 billion people live on less than US$2 a day.
Asia's third-largest economy has expanded at more than 9 per cent since April 2005, as Ford Motor Co, Tata Steel Ltd and other companies increase output at the quickest pace in a decade to meet soaring demand from a growing Indian middle class.
'It is a matter of considerable satisfaction that despite global turbulence and heightened uncertainties, our economy has been growing at the rate of 9.4 and 9.6 per cent,' Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said in New Delhi yesterday. He expects the economy to expand about 9 per cent in the current fiscal year despite 'global uncertainties'.
Incomes in India are rising as companies like Intel Corp, the world's biggest semiconductor maker, and Accenture Ltd, the second-largest consulting firm, hire more people to benefit from technically skilled workers and lower wage bills.
Indians got the second-highest salary increase in the Asia- Pacific region last year. Wages rose an average 14.8 per cent in 2007 from 14.4 per cent in the previous year, according to human resources consulting firm Hewitt Associates Inc. -- Bloomberg
India grows 9.6% in FY07 at fastest pace since '89
(NEW DELHI) India's economy expanded 9.6 per cent last fiscal year, the fastest pace since 1989, as rising incomes spurred demand for cars, mobile phones and motorbikes.
The growth rate for the year that ended March 31, 2007, was revised up from 9.4 per cent estimated earlier, the government said in a statement in New Delhi yesterday. The government also raised growth in the year ended March 31, 2006, to 9.4 per cent.
Faster growth may enable Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to cut the budget deficit and spend more on plans aimed at reducing poverty in a nation where the World Bank estimates more than half of the 1.1 billion people live on less than US$2 a day.
Asia's third-largest economy has expanded at more than 9 per cent since April 2005, as Ford Motor Co, Tata Steel Ltd and other companies increase output at the quickest pace in a decade to meet soaring demand from a growing Indian middle class.
'It is a matter of considerable satisfaction that despite global turbulence and heightened uncertainties, our economy has been growing at the rate of 9.4 and 9.6 per cent,' Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said in New Delhi yesterday. He expects the economy to expand about 9 per cent in the current fiscal year despite 'global uncertainties'.
Incomes in India are rising as companies like Intel Corp, the world's biggest semiconductor maker, and Accenture Ltd, the second-largest consulting firm, hire more people to benefit from technically skilled workers and lower wage bills.
Indians got the second-highest salary increase in the Asia- Pacific region last year. Wages rose an average 14.8 per cent in 2007 from 14.4 per cent in the previous year, according to human resources consulting firm Hewitt Associates Inc. -- Bloomberg
CIMB: Construction sector
Construction Sector
CIMB Research, Jan 31
IMPACT of Land Transport Review: In the last part of the review, the government continues to emphasise one thing: building up the public transport system in Singapore as a viable alternative to the car. Congestion is to be addressed urgently as the car population had increased by 10 per cent between 1997 and 2004, while the number of car trips had expanded 23 per cent over the same period. Congestion levels have risen 25 per cent since 1999.
Road development plans: On the heels of the expected full completion of the Kallang-Paya Lebar Expressway in September 2008, a proposed $2.5 billion Marina Coastal Expressway will be built, by 2013, to support the development of the Marina Bay area. The government has also approved a budget of $7 billion-$8 billion for a new 21 km North-South Expressway, to be built by 2020.
Massive $50 billion infrastructure spending till 2020: For road development, a total of $10 billion is expected to be spent over the next 10-12 years, which translates to $0.8 billion-$1.0 billion per year. Added to that rail development of another $40 billion from now until 2020, potential contracts that can be awarded to construction companies are significant.
Construction beneficiaries: Typically, large projects in Singapore are awarded to established foreign contractors from Korea, Japan and China. However, because of the current shortage of construction companies, we believe some of the local construction companies with relevant track records could stand to benefit.
Recommendations: We maintain our 'overweight' position on the Construction sector, with 'outperform' ratings for the following stocks: OKP (target price $1.21), Lian Beng (target price $1.67), Hong Leong Asia (target price $5.54), CSC Holdings (target price $0.57), and Tat Hong (target price $5.00).Sector - OVERWEIGHT
CIMB Research, Jan 31
IMPACT of Land Transport Review: In the last part of the review, the government continues to emphasise one thing: building up the public transport system in Singapore as a viable alternative to the car. Congestion is to be addressed urgently as the car population had increased by 10 per cent between 1997 and 2004, while the number of car trips had expanded 23 per cent over the same period. Congestion levels have risen 25 per cent since 1999.
Road development plans: On the heels of the expected full completion of the Kallang-Paya Lebar Expressway in September 2008, a proposed $2.5 billion Marina Coastal Expressway will be built, by 2013, to support the development of the Marina Bay area. The government has also approved a budget of $7 billion-$8 billion for a new 21 km North-South Expressway, to be built by 2020.
Massive $50 billion infrastructure spending till 2020: For road development, a total of $10 billion is expected to be spent over the next 10-12 years, which translates to $0.8 billion-$1.0 billion per year. Added to that rail development of another $40 billion from now until 2020, potential contracts that can be awarded to construction companies are significant.
Construction beneficiaries: Typically, large projects in Singapore are awarded to established foreign contractors from Korea, Japan and China. However, because of the current shortage of construction companies, we believe some of the local construction companies with relevant track records could stand to benefit.
Recommendations: We maintain our 'overweight' position on the Construction sector, with 'outperform' ratings for the following stocks: OKP (target price $1.21), Lian Beng (target price $1.67), Hong Leong Asia (target price $5.54), CSC Holdings (target price $0.57), and Tat Hong (target price $5.00).Sector - OVERWEIGHT
BT: Lower ARF won't mean cheaper cars
Business Times - 01 Feb 2008
Lower ARF won't mean cheaper cars
Rise in COE premiums may offset tax cuts, say industry players
By VEN SREENIVASAN
(SINGAPORE) If you are holding out for lower car prices, now that the government has confirmed a 10 per cent reduction in Additional Registration Fees, you may be disappointed.
So say industry insiders, who point out that the impending cut-back in Certificates of Entitlement quotas could more than offset any savings to be had from lower registration taxes.
'Car prices will go up,' said Cheah Kim Teck, chief executive of Cycle & Carriage, which distributes Mercedes, Kia and Mitsubishi cars.
'What they (the government) haven't said is how drastically COEs will be cut,' he said. 'If you take the average OMV (Open Market Value) for a car at $20,000, a 10 per cent ARF reduction saves you only $2,000. But if the number of COEs is cut significantly, as we believe will be the case, you are talking about a potentially much greater jump in COE premium prices. Overall, the pain will be greater.'
All this comes after the government yesterday announced a slew of measures to reduce road congestion, including higher Electronic Road Pricing, lower vehicle ownership taxes and improvements in the public transport system.
Among the initiatives is a reduction in the ARF from the current 110 per cent of OMV to 100 per cent in March. Road taxes for vehicles will also be reduced by 15 per cent from July.
However, the number of new cars registered could be reduced as COE quotas are cut back over three years starting from 2009.
'The impact will depend on whether people hold back purchases,' said Say Kwee Neng, managing director of Vantage Automotive, which sells Peugeot, LandRover and Ford cars.
'On one hand, the reduction in COEs will raise premium prices. But on the other hand, demand could fall if people become more circumspect about purchasing big-ticket items in the current uncertain economic conditions. So it all depends on how these factors play out.'
The savings from ARF are also lower when they are spread over the life of the car, up until it is scrapped.
Currently, the Land Transport Authority pays a reducing percentage of the car's original OMV when the owner takes the car off the road permanently. This PARF ranges from 75 per cent of the original OMV for a car under five years old to 50 per cent for a car which is almost 10 years old.
Under the current system, a car with $10,000 OMV will attract an ARF of $11,000 (110 per cent). This means the owner will get a scrap value of $5,500 (50 per cent of original $11,000 ARF) when he scraps it in its 10th year.
But when ARF is reduced to 100 per cent of OMV in March, this ARF will be $10,000. But on reaching the 10th year, the scrap is $5,000 (again, 50 per cent of original ARF).
So the owner gets $500 less at scrap. And if this is factored into the original $1,000 he saved as a result of his ARF reduction, the net ARF savings work out to only 5 per cent .
So, the bottom line, say motor traders, is that the reduction in ARF is too minor to factor in buying decisions.
'All things being equal, the reduction in ARF should reduce the cost of buying the vehicle,' said Victor Tan, general manager of Champion Motors, which sells Suzuki vehicles. 'However whether the consumer ultimately benefits from this ARF reduction in terms of overall car price depends on the movement of the COE premiums, and when he scraps his car. Given that the government wants to cut the vehicle population on the road, the chances are that COE premiums will rise by a greater amount than the ARF reduction.'
He noted that a typical Category A vehicle (1600cc and smaller) would see a $1,200 to $1,600 reduction in ARF. But a $2,000 increase in COE premiums would wipe out this benefit.
Could buyers of larger cars benefit, then?
'Not likely,' said C&C's Mr Cheah. 'The reduction in the ARF for the Mercedes C200 would be about $3,500 lower. But if the COE premium goes up to $20,000, as was the case last year, from the $14,000 average now, you can say goodbye to your savings.'
Some motors traders pointed to what they saw as 'inconsistency' in the COE quota policy.
'They say there is overcrowding on the roads,' said Mr Say. 'But who was responsible for letting this happen in the first place? Why was the market flooded with COEs over the past two years? Yes, there is the replacement cycle, but surely one must be able to anticipate the results ahead, rather than make motorists suffer through this kind of feast and famine every few years.'
Traders said the fact that over 70 per cent of the cars on the road are under three years old further pointed to a sharp reduction in COE quotas.
Lower ARF won't mean cheaper cars
Rise in COE premiums may offset tax cuts, say industry players
By VEN SREENIVASAN
(SINGAPORE) If you are holding out for lower car prices, now that the government has confirmed a 10 per cent reduction in Additional Registration Fees, you may be disappointed.
So say industry insiders, who point out that the impending cut-back in Certificates of Entitlement quotas could more than offset any savings to be had from lower registration taxes.
'Car prices will go up,' said Cheah Kim Teck, chief executive of Cycle & Carriage, which distributes Mercedes, Kia and Mitsubishi cars.
'What they (the government) haven't said is how drastically COEs will be cut,' he said. 'If you take the average OMV (Open Market Value) for a car at $20,000, a 10 per cent ARF reduction saves you only $2,000. But if the number of COEs is cut significantly, as we believe will be the case, you are talking about a potentially much greater jump in COE premium prices. Overall, the pain will be greater.'
All this comes after the government yesterday announced a slew of measures to reduce road congestion, including higher Electronic Road Pricing, lower vehicle ownership taxes and improvements in the public transport system.
Among the initiatives is a reduction in the ARF from the current 110 per cent of OMV to 100 per cent in March. Road taxes for vehicles will also be reduced by 15 per cent from July.
However, the number of new cars registered could be reduced as COE quotas are cut back over three years starting from 2009.
'The impact will depend on whether people hold back purchases,' said Say Kwee Neng, managing director of Vantage Automotive, which sells Peugeot, LandRover and Ford cars.
'On one hand, the reduction in COEs will raise premium prices. But on the other hand, demand could fall if people become more circumspect about purchasing big-ticket items in the current uncertain economic conditions. So it all depends on how these factors play out.'
The savings from ARF are also lower when they are spread over the life of the car, up until it is scrapped.
Currently, the Land Transport Authority pays a reducing percentage of the car's original OMV when the owner takes the car off the road permanently. This PARF ranges from 75 per cent of the original OMV for a car under five years old to 50 per cent for a car which is almost 10 years old.
Under the current system, a car with $10,000 OMV will attract an ARF of $11,000 (110 per cent). This means the owner will get a scrap value of $5,500 (50 per cent of original $11,000 ARF) when he scraps it in its 10th year.
But when ARF is reduced to 100 per cent of OMV in March, this ARF will be $10,000. But on reaching the 10th year, the scrap is $5,000 (again, 50 per cent of original ARF).
So the owner gets $500 less at scrap. And if this is factored into the original $1,000 he saved as a result of his ARF reduction, the net ARF savings work out to only 5 per cent .
So, the bottom line, say motor traders, is that the reduction in ARF is too minor to factor in buying decisions.
'All things being equal, the reduction in ARF should reduce the cost of buying the vehicle,' said Victor Tan, general manager of Champion Motors, which sells Suzuki vehicles. 'However whether the consumer ultimately benefits from this ARF reduction in terms of overall car price depends on the movement of the COE premiums, and when he scraps his car. Given that the government wants to cut the vehicle population on the road, the chances are that COE premiums will rise by a greater amount than the ARF reduction.'
He noted that a typical Category A vehicle (1600cc and smaller) would see a $1,200 to $1,600 reduction in ARF. But a $2,000 increase in COE premiums would wipe out this benefit.
Could buyers of larger cars benefit, then?
'Not likely,' said C&C's Mr Cheah. 'The reduction in the ARF for the Mercedes C200 would be about $3,500 lower. But if the COE premium goes up to $20,000, as was the case last year, from the $14,000 average now, you can say goodbye to your savings.'
Some motors traders pointed to what they saw as 'inconsistency' in the COE quota policy.
'They say there is overcrowding on the roads,' said Mr Say. 'But who was responsible for letting this happen in the first place? Why was the market flooded with COEs over the past two years? Yes, there is the replacement cycle, but surely one must be able to anticipate the results ahead, rather than make motorists suffer through this kind of feast and famine every few years.'
Traders said the fact that over 70 per cent of the cars on the road are under three years old further pointed to a sharp reduction in COE quotas.
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