Monday, June 15, 2015

Reit consolidation not likely: analysts

They say requisite factors for consolidation such as valuation disparity, market disruption and little room for growth are not present

By



Singapore
THE erratic outlook for the Reit sector has rekindled market talk of possible consolidation - be it smaller players grouping together, or larger players taking smaller ones out - should market conditions worsen.
This is given the "saturated" Reit market in Singapore, particularly in the industrial space which is fragmented with several small players which do not appear to be very different from one another to the layman.
But analysts The Business Times spoke to thought it unlikely, citing a list of factors that need to be in place before consolidation can occur.
First, Reits need to be trading at deep discounts, which is not the case now. Most are trading at or above book value, said Vikrant Pandey from UOB Kay Hian. Another condition is that Reits need to have exhausted growth opportunities, and competition has to be so intense and affect profit margins so badly that they turn to consolidation as a way out.
While the pool of assets in land-scarce Singapore is limited, Reits have overcome that by acquiring overseas assets, thus making consolidation unnecessary, he said.
DBS Group Research analyst Derek Tan cited other preconditions before consolidation can occur, namely: financial market dislocations, given how reliant Reits are on capital markets, and - related to Mr Pandey's point - a valuation disparity, where a Reit is trading above book value and another below, so that it is cheaper for the former to buy the latter through a share swap.
"At this point, we see neither," he said.
Consolidation also tends to happen during times of crisis, not when the market is flush with liquidity like now, said Ong Kian Lin, who recently became the head of research at RHB Research in Singapore.
The last time Reit consolidation happened here was during the 2008 global financial crisis when Frasers Centrepoint acquired 17.7 per cent of the Singapore-listed Allco Commercial Reit and 100 per cent of its manager, and rebranded the Reit as Frasers Commercial Trust.
The stakes were acquired from the then financially troubled Allco Finance Group, which needed the proceeds to repay debt.
Later that year, Malaysian developer YTL Corp also bought 26 per cent of the Singapore-listed Macquarie Prime Reit and 50 per cent of the manager from Macquarie. Macquarie had spent months seeking a buyout offer for the Reit, but could not find takers in the difficult capital market environment. It thus relented to sell just its own stake to another sponsor.
Fast forward to present day, the financial health of Reits still looks good, Mr Ong said. "The balance sheets are strong. No one looks in distress."
Meanwhile, the jitters have not shaken several offshore, cross-border Reits looking to list here. At least three Reit listings are expected to revive the quiet IPO market this year.
One of them is Canadian insurer Manulife Financial Corp's asset management arm, which is planning an up to US$450 million Singapore listing of its US office properties in Q3. DBS Bank and JPMorgan are advising on the deal.
Another Reit in the pipeline comes from Shanghai property investor Kailong Real Estate Investment, which might spin off its Shanghai business parks in a S$200 million listing in July, said Reuters. The Reit will be denominated in both renminbi and Singapore dollars and will be the first dual currency Reit in Singapore. It will also be the first mainland Chinese company to issue a Reit IPO here.
The third comes from fund manager CIMB-TrustCapital Advisors, which is planning to list a Reit with possibly up to A$1 billion (S$1.04 billion) worth of Australian office assets on the Singapore bourse, according to The Australian.
The Reits are likely drawn by Singapore's pro-business tax incentives and large investor base well-versed with the Reit instrument.
Analysts say these listings will add diversity to the offerings here and boost the options for investors. The chances of them cannibalising interest in the existing Reits are low because their exposures are quite different.
In fact, some analysts expect offshore, cross-border listings to form the trend going forward, given the vast numbers of property portfolios available outside Singapore, and the already well-represented domestic sectors for office, retail, hospitality and even industrial real estate here.

Unclear timing of rate hike causing Reit jitters

Interest rate increase may or may not be priced in already; selldown still expected when rates rise

By



Singapore
THE unclear timing of the interest rate increase is causing some volatility in the share prices of Singapore real estate investment trusts (Reits), which have rallied and corrected with each reading of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting minutes.
The FOMC next meets on June 16-17. With June now looking unlikely for a rate hike given still-mixed US economic data, the consensus now seems to be for a 25 basis point bump-up in interest rates in September.
And although Reits have braced themselves for it - some 80 per cent of all their borrowings have already been hedged - analysts still expect a selldown on fears.
There are divided views on whether Reits have already priced in the rate increase or not. One analyst noted jitters still when US Treasury bond yields or Singapore government bond yields spike.
For instance, when the US 10-year bond yields went from 1.89 per cent to 2.29 per cent on April 20, the FTSE ST Reit Index fell 2.1 per cent.
More recently, when the 10-year Singapore bond yields rose 24 basis points from 2.42 per cent on May 29 to hit an 18-month high of about 2.66 per cent on June 5, Reits sold down 1.1 per cent over the same period.
"So I don't think the rate increase is really reflected in their current prices, because there is always this emotional sentiment. When rates do increase, although it may be gradual, things will still get pretty volatile and we can expect a bit of a selldown," one analyst said.
He added that investors will need to be very selective about picking stocks.
"Going forward, it's not easy to pick a conviction within the sector . . . A few houses are advocating bottom-up stock picking, meaning as opposed to going for a sector, you look at company fundamentals specifically. You comb across the different Reits and look for factors like strong balance sheet, good capital management, high percentage of borrowings hedged, and DPU (distribution per unit) growth."
DBS analyst Derek Tan noted that average interest costs have been increasing moderately over the past year or so, largely due to some floating rates on loans going up, as well as on longer tenure loans which typically come with higher costs.
"But generally the DPU trend is still positive, albeit its growth has been slowing," he said.
When the interest rate increase finally kicks in - and it would have been about two years since the possibility of it first surfaced in May 2013 - there is almost guaranteed to still be a selloff in the S-Reit sector.
But Mr Tan believes "it will be a relief rather than downside, and the downside won't be a lot because the market has been waiting for it for so long that the majority has been priced in".
Asked to describe his outlook for Reits for the rest of this year, UOB Kay Hian analyst Vikrant Pandey called it "hazy".
"For the next quarter, I think Reit prices will move sideways, without any strong upward or downward movement. This year has been a see-saw in terms of the outlook for interest rate direction, be it an earlier or later than expected rise, and that has caused swings in the performance of interest rate sensitive sectors like Reits."
In the US, big utility stocks also rank among the most rate-sensitive equities because of their highly geared nature. A lot of capex is pumped into their infrastructure projects which then yield recurring income, much like how properties work in Reits. But there are no such pure plays on Singapore's bourse.
Among Singapore's Reits, the respective sub-sectors also have their own headwinds to contend with.
The office sub-sector faces a massive four million square feet of supply until end-2016, and while there appears to still be some time, this has put the bargaining power back into tenants' hands.
According to Knight Frank, office spot rents grew at a slower pace of just 0.2 per cent in Grade A+ buildings in Raffles Place and Marina Bay quarter on quarter in Q1. Office Reits have traded down about 7 per cent year to date, making them the biggest laggards compared to other sub-sectors.
The industrial property sector faces a similar oversupply situation, as well as a slew of restrictions - on strata sub-division and space occupied by anchor tenants, seller stamp duties, shorter land tenure, longer minimum occupation periods before asset sales - all of which are measures by the government to cool industrial property prices and rents.
Retail is on a structural downtrend, plagued by labour costs and online competition, while hospitality is faced with falling tourist arrivals - a 5.4 per cent drop in the first four months of this year - and weak regional currencies which make Singapore an expensive destination.
Maybank has an "underweight" recommendation on Reits, with "sell" calls on CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) and Ascendas Reit. UOB Kay Hian has a "sell" on CMT too, citing retail weakness, while RHB recommends "buy" for its economies of scale and low gearing. OCBC Investment Research and RHB are neutral on Reits, citing rate fears. Different houses are more pessimistic on different sub-sectors with no clear consensus.



Wednesday, February 4, 2015

【本報訊】羊年臨近,年廿八,洗邋遢;有拍賣行負責人提醒巿民,若大掃除時在家中枱底暗角,發現一些五仙「神沙」要留意年份,隨時升值變「大牛」。本周末拍賣的「一九六四年香港五仙」拍賣底價五百元,「一九八○年香港一毫」底價四百元,「呢個只係大約巿價,經叫價分分鐘唔止呢個數。」
記者:蔡朗清
普藝拍賣行錢幣部主管梁達榮昨表示,錢幣收藏家競相追逐的香港輔幣主要是兩種,其中是一九八○年的一毫,如果是全新硬幣,現巿價高達逾千元,升值一萬倍;即使用過,只要硬幣整體表面沒有刮花,色澤光鮮,亦可賣得四至五百元。
一九八○年一毫是香港最後一款大面積的一毫硬幣,之後全部硬幣都變得輕巧細緻,所以變得值錢,「政府當年全面回收一九八○年一毫,巿面流通量唔多。即使係一九八○年前的一毫都唔值錢」。

無人知市面有幾多枚

梁達榮續稱,一九六四年香港五仙硬幣更值錢,拿去拍賣行保守估計可賣得八百元,升值逾萬倍;保存良好隨時拍得二千元,「點解一九六四年香港五仙咁值錢?其他年份唔值錢,因為其他硬幣都有發行量,惟獨一九六四年五仙無公佈發行量,到今天都係一個謎,巿面仲有幾多枚,冇人知。咁樣先值錢」。
他說,普藝本周末錢幣拍賣行各有一枚一九六四年香港五仙及一九八○年香港一毫拍賣,底價分別是五百元及四百元,「最後成交價幾多?好難估計」。
除硬幣外,當日亦有鈔票拍賣,其中一組二百張連編號的全新滙豐銀行拾圓,底價三千二百元,「係一九九二年鈔票,賣家當年喺銀行『唱』返嚟諗住封利是,點知擺係保險箱到𠵱家。值錢在於連號碼加上靚冧巴,頭三個號碼是888,有一張仲係888777。𠵱家已經無連號碼鈔票換」。
另一張拍品是一九八一年全新滙豐銀行一百元,編號555555 ZF,估值四千二百元。
梁達榮打趣說,巿民在大掃除找得有關輔幣等,不妨拿來拍賣行估價,「我哋會盡快幫賣家安排拍賣」。 

Monday, February 2, 2015

Integrated Shield Plans: To keep or not?

When MediShield Life starts later this year, it will provide everyone, both sick and healthy, with cradle-to-grave health insurance cover. There will no longer be any lifetime limits, and benefits and premiums will be higher than under the current MediShield. This has caused many people who are currently on the Integrated Shield Plans (IPs), which cover them for more than subsidised hospital care, to ask if they can drop these additional plans which have higher premiums, and simply rely on MediShield Life. Today, six in 10 people on MediShield have IPs. Some certainly should continue with their IPs while others would do better to downgrade to the basic MediShield Life. Senior Health Correspondent Salma Khalik gives some pointers to help you decide which route to take if you are currently on an IP.

There are five insurers - AIA, Aviva, Great Eastern, NTUC Income and Prudential - that offer three categories of Integrated Shield Plans or IPs: for treatment at private hospitals; public hospital A class; and public hospital B1 class.
Public hospital B2 and C class wards are heavily subsidised and can be covered by the basic MediShield Life.

UP TO the age of about 40 years, the premiums for IPs are relatively low, as younger people are less likely to require expensive hospital stays. This reason alone makes IPs worth considering, especially if you do not have company health cover.
Current premiums range from $78 to $383 a year, but will rise when MediShield Life starts as all IPs have to incorporate it. MediShield premiums are $50-$105 today but will rise to $130-$310 a year when it becomes MediShield Life. Those who do have good hospital coverage provided by their employer should look at considerations for older workers.
PREMIUMS start going up rather sharply from the age of 41 years as that's the age when people start getting chronic problems like blood pressure and high cholesterol levels which put them at higher risk of serious illness. That is also when the incidence of cancer and diabetes starts to climb.
IP premiums range from $631 to $1,667 a year. While these premiums might still appear pretty affordable as up to $800 can be paid with Medisave money and they are still drawing a salary, it is time for those who have hospital cover from their employer to ask themselves the following question: What class of ward am I likely to use after I retire?
This is because, for them, it is only after they retire and no longer have company health coverage that MediShield Life of IP becomes their main health insurance.
Remember that insurance, unless you also buy a rider, does not pay the whole hospital bill.
The deductible, or the initial amount the patient needs to pay, ranges from $1,500 to $3,500 depending on the ward class. There is also a 10 per cent co-insurance for the rest of the bill that the patient needs to pay for.
Many patients take stock only at the point of admission.
Today, 60-70 per cent of people with IPs pegged at private hospitals or public hospital A class ward choose a lower hospital class than their insurance entitles them to - which essentially means that they have chosen the wrong IP and have been paying higher premiums than they needed to for years.
Another thing to look at is not the premiums you are currently paying, but the amount you will need to pay a decade or two after retirement. One in three people aged 65 is expected to live beyond 90 years. Would you be able to afford those premiums then?
If the answer is no, then do you want to pay high premiums up till the point when you cannot afford them, or downgrade early and save on a lot of money in the coming years.
IF YOU have retired and need to be more careful with what you spend, you too should look 10-20 years down the road and see if the premiums are likely to remain affordable.
Remember that the premiums are also likely to rise as cost of health care goes up, so the premiums you will need to pay in future will be higher than what you see charged for older people today.
Now, the highest premiums for private hospital plans is more than $8,000 a year. It is about $5,000 a year for B1 plans. MediShield Life premiums for people 65 years and older will hold steady for at least five years at $815-$1,530 a year before subsidies.
IF YOU are already suffering from a serious long- term ailment and are already collecting from the insurance, you probably should carry on to ensure that your coverage is not reduced. This applies to people of all ages.
Another group that might want to hang on to their IPs are diabetics with a high potential for kidney failure. If you qualify for subsidised dialysis, MediShield Life is enough. If you don't, you will need dialysis at a private centre.
B1 and A class plans that say they cover dialysis "as charged" refer to public hospitals and institutions only, but there are currently no public institutions offering private dialysis.
DOWNGRADING from an IP to the basic MediShield is never a problem and can be done any time. But moving to a higher plan will depend on whether you have any pre-existing medical problems that will result in exclusions in your coverage. The older you get, the more difficult it will be to change to a higher plan.
IN THAT case, the best thing to do is to hang on to your current plan for one more year. When MediShield Life is launched, the IPs will revise their premiums. By early next year, the picture will be clearer and you can then decide on the best scheme for you and your family.
@STHealth

Monday, November 24, 2014

BT: Not just Some Retirement Scheme Beyond the tax carrot, think of the SRS as insurance against having no income

24 Nov 2014

Not just Some Retirement Scheme

Beyond the tax carrot, think of the SRS as insurance against having no income

By


'I HAVE finally set up my SRS account!" I texted some friends and colleagues excitedly after putting some money in the Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS), a little-known and widely misunderstood government savings and investment vehicle that gives attractive tax benefits.
Those I asked were financially savvy people in upper middle-income jobs earning an income which makes the scheme's tax savings worthwhile.
They could also use the money saved inside to invest in the stock market, which some already do.
But their replies weren't too encouraging.

"What's that?" was a standard response.
"This is a US thing?" said one.
"This is the one for your parents?" asked another.
"I don't have a DBS account," someone said.
"I need the money to buy a house," was another common reply.
After 13 years in existence and numerous articles about it online and in print, the SRS is still largely unknown among the general populace.
Even if people know that it is linked to retirement, they have very little idea how it works or how they can benefit from it.
This is a pity. Setting up the scheme takes just minutes if you have an Internet banking account, but the benefits can last a lifetime.
As long as you contribute to it before the end of every year, you will be eligible for tax savings for the following year of assessment - hence the timing of this column, before people go off for their year-end holidays.
The biggest misunderstanding of the scheme is that you cannot withdraw your SRS monies early.
You can actually withdraw anytime. But if you withdraw before the statutory retirement age from the time of your first contribution - currently age 62 - the full sum will be subject to income tax, and an additional 5 per cent penalty is imposed.
Thus people think the penalties are too onerous. Why lock up your money when so much is already locked up with the Central Provident Fund (CPF)?
But they are missing the point. The SRS can be used to buy stocks, funds, and even life annuities. It is, at first glance, a long-term savings and investment scheme with a tax bonus.
While money used to top-up CPF accounts can also give you a tax benefit, CPF monies are harder to get out than SRS monies.
For many income-earners, the benefits from tax deferment, especially from the tax exemption for half of monies withdrawn upon retirement age, should outweigh the disadvantages of the early withdrawal penalties. The scheme, explained in the other story, is especially powerful in Singapore where there are zero or low taxes on a substantial amount of annual income.
In fact, if you consider yourself a long-term investor with a time horizon of 20 to 30 years, the psychological deterrent of early withdrawal can actually work in your favour. You will not be as tempted to sell at the bottom and buy at the top. Your SRS portfolio might outperform your regular portfolio, simply because stocks are more likely to be left alone to generate dividends and grow.
The three local banks operate the SRS scheme. Right now, they are offering vouchers or cash incentives for people to sign up.
Sometimes, they will take the opportunity to persuade you to buy insurance or unit trust products with your SRS monies. Think carefully if they are suitable for you.
But if you buy stocks with them, the transaction charges are lower compared to most online brokerages. However, there are service fees of S$2 per counter per quarter. So it is not advisable to buy an excessive number of counters for your SRS portfolio.
Worst-case scenarios
What are the worst-case scenarios for someone using the SRS? There are a number that come to mind.
The first is where a worker suddenly needs the money before retirement but is still liable to pay taxes in the same bracket.
In that case, he will not only have to incur the 5 per cent early withdrawal penalty, but will also be taxed on the amount he withdraws. This means he has effectively made a 5 per cent "loss" on his decision to use the scheme.
The second is more unusual, but not beyond the realm of possibility. This is the "late bloomer" scenario where you may have hit retirement age, but still continue to work and earn far more than what you previously did when you first contributed to the SRS. At the same time, tax rates move up.
Suppose when you are 65, you are the director of several company boards, on top of a salaried position that gives you a substantial paycheck.
You are at the peak of your career. But at that time, increasing social welfare expenses, severe income inequality and a change in political sentiment force the government to raise marginal taxes on high-earners like you to, say, 40 per cent.
Suppose you have steadily put in S$12,750 a year from age 30, and the money compounds at 5 per cent a year. You will have S$1.15 million by the end of your 65th year.
If you need to withdraw the money in one lump sum, you will be taxed on half your money withdrawn. If your marginal tax rates are 40 per cent, your effective tax rates are 20 per cent. If you haven't spent too much time contributing to the SRS from the 20 per cent tax bracket, you will be worse off, even with the tax concession.
High-balance problems
This leads us to the third worst-case scenario. This is when you are wildly successful with your SRS investments even though you put in relatively little in the beginning.
If you make millions of dollars with your SRS monies, then you are effectively letting yourself be taxed heavily on the capital gains when you withdraw what you have made - as income. In that scenario, you would have been far better off investing outside of the SRS system, where there are no capital gains taxes.
This is the "implicit capital gains tax" problem that was hotly discussed when the scheme was first introduced. But the Ministry of Finance had pointed out then that investors are putting in pre-tax dollars with the scheme as opposed to after-tax dollars outside. And the 50 per cent concession on what is taxable upon retirement means most retirees are unlikely to pay any taxes, it said.
If you have a high balance, one possibility to save on taxes is to buy a lifetime annuity product to spread payments out. But you will still be effectively taxed on half the annuity's payouts every year.
Your SRS monies also form part of your estate upon death, with 50 per cent of the withdrawal subject to income tax. The withdrawal happens in one lump sum. This may not be the most tax-efficient estate planning vehicle.
There are other minor problems to watch out for.
For example, you might have already hit the maximum contribution cap for the year, and are fully invested in a company. But the company does a rights issue. In that event, you will have no choice but to sell your rights entitlements and suffer dilution, or sell some other investment to free up cash to subscribe to the rights.
The best-case scenario appears to be for a high-income earner to get the maximum tax benefit every year, and reach age 62 with around S$400,000 in his account. Assuming this high-income earner stops working immediately at age 62 with no further income, and assuming whatever is left does not grow further, he can enjoy S$40,000 a year tax free if he spreads out the withdrawals evenly over the maximum 10 years.
This explains why the SRS is more popular with those in their 40s and 50s. They are more likely to be in a situation where they reap substantial tax savings, while they are not too far away from the retirement age. So they are not likely to run the risk of having too much in their accounts.
SRS is insurance
Given these worst-case scenarios, it might be more helpful to think of the SRS as a form of disciplined saving, and as an insurance mechanism to guard against having no income.
After all, most people do not know if a job will still be waiting for them several decades from now.
Having some cash "locked up" in this fashion will help. You don't even need to invest the money, to be safe.
Should a person become physically or mentally handicapped, they will also be able to withdraw their SRS savings penalty-free with a 50 per cent tax concession, regardless of age.
Even before you turn 62, there might be years when you will not be earning any income. For example, you might want to quit your job to look after the kids. This can happen when you are in your 30s or 40s.
In that case, if you have made SRS contributions from a marginal tax rate bracket of 7 per cent or more, the 5 per cent early withdrawal penalty will still make the scheme worth it as long as you do not incur any other income tax from withdrawal. This is the case if you withdraw just S$20,000 a year.
If you have no income, and have been contributing from a tax bracket of 7 per cent a year, you can arguably benefit even by withdrawing up to S$45,000 a year - where you have an effective income tax rate of 2 per cent on top of the 5 per cent penalty.
The higher your income tax bracket when you contribute, the more you can withdraw and still benefit despite the 5 per cent penalty.
Ultimately, the SRS is not an easy scheme to understand. But there are reasons even beyond the attractive tax benefits for Singaporeans to consider having some money in it.

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Thursday, October 23, 2014

BT: Share traders calling it a day as market volume dries up - 23 Oct 2014

Singapore has been hit especially hard because of the penny stock collapse that began in October 2013 and continues to weigh on small and mid-cap counters. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
23 Oct5:50 AM
Singapore

Average net commission on the decline, slumping to about S$1,000 from around S$6,000 to S$8,000 a decade ago


KISHORE Rochey was a trading representative for 20 years before calling it quits in September this year. He said that the average net commission earned by his peers has been on the decline, with through-the-grapevine estimates falling from around S$6,000 to S$8,000 a decade ago to about S$1,000 when he left.

"It made no sense to stay around."

Mr Rochey's story is not unique. Market liquidity in Singapore is at a multi-year low, commissions are suffering and many in the industry are either looking for other sources of income or simply moving on.


While many in the industry acknowledge macroeconomic effects in the market, they also blame regulations that have raised the costs for speculative traders and cut spreads and commissions for trading representatives.

In response, Singapore Exchange (SGX) stressed that it cannot jeopardise long-term market quality for short-term liquidity droughts, and noted that it has taken several initiatives aimed at helping the industry.

The numbers do not paint a pretty picture. Market turnover fell 21 per cent in the financial year ended June 30, 2014, to S$286 billion, according to SGX. That is the lowest turnover since fiscal 2006, when the size of the total market was less than what it is worth today.

Looking at turnover as a proportion of market capitalisation, the average turnover velocity in FY2014 was just 40 per cent, compared to 71 per cent back in FY2007 (view infographic).

UOB-Kay Hian Holdings posted a 31.8 per cent decrease in first-half commission income this year, to S$113 million. DBS Group Holdings' brokerage income for the first half of 2014 fell 29 per cent to S$85 million. OCBC Bank matched DBS's decline, with brokerage income dropping to S$26 million.

An executive at a brokerage who deals with remisiers said that the number of trading representatives in Singapore has fallen to about 3,900 in 2013 from more than 4,300 in 2011.

Jimmy Ho, president of the Society of Remisiers of Singapore, remarked: "I quote one remisier who's been in the industry for over 40 years, and he said it's never been like this before."

Those who are still in the game are looking for other ways to make a buck.

Mr Rochey noted that some brokerages are encouraging their remisiers to help refer their clients to specialists of other products and asset classes such as contracts for difference and forex.

"But at the end of the day, when the commissions are so low . . . there's just not enough meat," Mr Rochey said.

A trader who has since moved to another part of the desk said that investors are also looking to overseas markets for more action. Emerging markets such as Thailand, for example, offer more inefficiencies that investors are better able to capture, he said.

"You have to look to where the money is," the trader said. "Thailand, Hong Kong, Indonesia, even the US, where the volatility is there. If you're talking about money flow, in South-east Asia, you don't have to look that far beyond Thailand and Indonesia."

Industry veterans cited a number of factors for the industry's current woes. The first, and most obvious, is that equity trading volumes across the world have not been great ever since the Global Financial Crisis.

"From 2009 until now, the market has gone out, so people don't have the courage to come in big time," Mr Rochey said. "You need a whole new breed of investors to come in and create the volume, who didn't experience the pain of 2008 and 2009. That will take a decade."

Singapore has been hit especially hard because of the penny stock collapse that began in October 2013 and continues to weigh on small and mid-cap counters.

But the industry said that regulations, some of which were in response to the penny meltdown, have made it hard for the market to recover from that hit.

The trading executive said that SGX's removal of its S$600 clearing-fee cap in June has crimped large-volume day trades.

"Now the clearing fee has no cap, so it's very expensive for them to trade," the executive said. "Low liquidity and volumes mean it's also hard for them to trade more, and the bid-ask size is smaller now, so for them to make money from day trading is very hard."

Mr Ho said that proposed rule changes such as the shortening of the settlement period to two days from three days and the requirement for brokerages to collect collateral will suppress the liquidity provided by contra trading. Contra trading refers to the practice of taking and unwinding positions without collateral within the settlement period.

"If you ask for margin, that's operating like a bank," Mr Ho said. "Any exchange doesn't operate this way, because any exchange must combine the speculative and fundamental elements. If you take out the speculative element, the market won't function."

But SGX is adamant that some of those rules being complained about actually improve market quality, and changing them to address what it views as a short-term liquidity downturn would be myopic.

"Yes, from an exchange perspective and from my perspective, I'd like to have higher turnover," chief executive Magnus Bocker said. "But the question is, I'm here to long-term service the investors, I'm here to protect the retail investors and the institutional investors, I'm here to protect the integrity of the market, I'm here to support that we can raise money for companies."

Mr Bocker also argued that although liquidity is thin at the moment, other aspects of the market, such as ease of capital raising for issuers and the costs for investors are still robust. Programmes that incentivise market makers and liquidity providers are also showing early success.

"If you go back and say it's not so good, I would say the three important functions of the equity market work well," Mr Bocker said.

Mr Rochey, who said that he now makes more as a private investor, felt that brokerages should also be more aggressive in incentivising volumes. Graduated takes of commissions, where a remisier's share of commissions is stepped up if the remisier's volume crosses a threshold, should be utilised more, he said.

"If the broking houses want to revive the industry . . . share more of the profit."

The trader said that the market situation is unlikely to improve for the rest of the year. "In two weeks' time, we're into the month of November, and for the European and US funds, this is fund closure time for them . . . The market will get quieter."*

Thursday, October 11, 2012

ST: Home loan curbs 'will hit older buyers'

Home loan curbs 'will hit older buyers'
Recent changes similar in effect to higher interest rates, say analysts. -ST
Magdalen Ng

Thu, Oct 11, 2012
The Straits Times

Investors in a weak financial position and buyers in their 40s and 50s will feel the effects of the latest property rules most acutely, analysts say.
The changes, unveiled by the Monetary Authority of Singapore last Friday, are similar, in effect, to higher interest rates, they said.

Some older buyers who already have a loan may abandon plans to buy an investment property, the analysts added.

The central bank set a maximum of 35 years on all home loans. For new loans, the loan-to-value ratio has been lowered if the loan exceeds 30 years, or if the loan period extends beyond the retirement age of 65.

Savills Singapore research head Alan Cheong said the "weak investor" can come from any age group. An example would be someone in his 40s earning less than his peers who wants to get ahead by entering the property market, thinking he can make money in the rental market.

"The new rules create an effect similar to rising interest rates, and increase the monthly cash outflow of home buyers," he said.

Older buyers will be forced to take shorter loans if they do not wish to pay a larger amount upfront. In some cases, the monthly rental received from these properties may not even be sufficient to cover their monthly mortgage.

R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng said: "Most investors will rethink buying the property if the monthly repayment exceeds the monthly rental, unless there are other sources to make up for the shortfall."
Mr Png Poh Soon, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore, said the new measures would make buyers more cautious when buying properties for investment.

For instance, a 50-year-old investor will now be able to get a maximum loan term of only 15 years if he wants to avoid the stricter loan-to-valuation limits.

This means that if he buys a three-bedder at Sunville in the Serangoon area for $1.2million, his monthly repayment on a 15-year loan will be $4,367 (assuming he has another loan). Previously, assuming he met the bank's credit assessment criteria, he could have taken a 25-year loan with a monthly mortgage of only $2,773. The rent for such a unit would be about $3,800.

SLP International research head Nicholas Mak noted that the calculations "assume that interest rates remain low, which I do not expect for the next 20 years".

While the new rules are not the sole factors putting off Ms Vivian Lee from upgrading to a suburban condominium, they will affect her eventual decision.

The 39-year-old bank manager said: "We intended to take out a 30-year loan, but now I don't think so. Probably 25, which will affect our monthly cashflow."

The new rules may sway smaller and middle-aged investors towards the "very frothy" industrial and commercial property market, said International Property Advisor chief executive Ku Swee Yong. "We should now look for new curbs in the industrial and commercial sector. Some are selling at $1,000 per sq ft. It is completely insane in terms of pricing."

Asiaone: MAS to restrict loan tenure for residential properties

MAS to restrict loan tenure for residential properties
The maximum tenure of all new residential property loans will be capped at 35 years from Oct 6 onwards. -AsiaOne

Fri, Oct 05, 2012
AsiaOne 

 
SINGAPORE - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will start to restrict the tenure of loans granted by financial institutions for the purchase of residential properties from Oct 6 this year.
The maximum tenure of all new residential property loans will be capped at 35 years.

Loans exceeding 30 years' tenure will face significantly tighter loan-to-value (LTV) limits. This will apply to both private properties and HDB flats.

MAS said in a statement that this is part of the Government's broader aim of avoiding a price bubble and instilling long term stability in the property market.

Such a move will also curb continued upward pressure on residential property prices, driven by low interest rates and rapid credit growth.

According to MAS, a significant supply of housing will come onto the market over the next two years.
However, prices in both the HDB resale market and private residential property have continued to rise in the second and third quarters of this year.

Financial institutions have also been lengthening the tenures of residential property loans.
The average tenure for new residential property loans has increased from 25 to 29 years over the past three years.

More than 45 per cent of new residential property loans granted by financial institutions have tenures exceeding 30 years.

MAS said such long tenure loans pose risks to both lenders and borrowers.

"Lower initial monthly repayments, made possible by long loan tenures and the current low interest rates, may lead borrowers to over-estimate their ability to service the loans, and take a bigger loan than they can really afford.

"A rising property market may give false confidence to both borrowers and lenders that should there be difficulty in servicing the loan, they can always sell the property at a higher price," it said.
However, in reality, long tenure loans impose a larger debt repayment burden on borrowers as interest accumulates over a longer period.

When interest rates eventually rise, borrowers who have overextended themselves will have difficulties repaying their loans. If property prices fall, financial institutions may be caught holding the bad loans.
MAS chairman Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam said the central bank is taking this step to require more prudent lending, and will continue to watch the property market carefully.
"We will do what it takes to cool the market, and avoid a bubble that will eventually hurt borrowers and destabilise our financial system," he said.

The new MAS rules impose an absolute limit of 35 years on the tenure of all loans for residential property. This will apply to loans to both individual and non-individual borrowers, as well as refinancing loans

In addition, MAS will lower the LTV ratio for new residential property loans to borrowers who are individuals, if the tenure exceeds 30 years or if the loan period extends beyond the retirement age of 65 years.

For these loans, the LTV limit will be 40 per cent for a borrower with one or more outstanding residential property loans, 60 per cent for a borrower with no outstanding residential property loan.
MAS will also lower the LTV ratio for residential property loans to non-individual borrowers from 50 per cent to 40 per cent.

BT: MAS imposes cap on housing loan tenures

MAS imposes cap on housing loan tenures
MAS said it will set an absolute limit of 35 years on the tenure of all residential property loans - both new loans and refinancings. -BT
Emilyn Yap and Mindy Tan

Mon, Oct 08, 2012
The Business Times

SINGAPORE regulators signalled their concerns over still rising home prices yesterday, announcing fresh mortgage curbs to cap upward price pressures caused by low interest rates and fast credit growth.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said it will set an absolute limit of 35 years on the tenure of all residential property loans - both new loans and refinancings. It will also lower loan-to-value (LTV) ratios for new loans with a tenure of more than 30 years. The new rules will apply to both private homes and HDB flats and will take effect today.

"Monetary conditions worldwide are far from normal," said Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, noting that the latest round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States and low interest rates have made credit easy, though this will eventually change.

"We are taking this step now to require more prudent lending, and will continue to watch the property market carefully," said Mr Tharman, who is also Finance Minister and MAS chairman. "We will do what it takes to cool the market, and avoid a bubble that will eventually hurt borrowers and destabilise our financial system."

The new rules - Singapore's sixth round of cooling measures - look set to affect not just home buyers and existing owners looking to refinance their mortgages, but also property developers and banks.
According to the central bank, over 45 per cent of new home loans have tenures exceeding 30 years. "We will not be surprised to see more measures being introduced if property prices do not stabilise (or correct slightly) over the next few months," said Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho. MAS will cap the tenure of all new residential property loans at 35 years.

For refinancings, the tenure of the refinancing facility and the number of years since the first home loan for that property was disbursed cannot add up to more than 35 years.

Also, MAS will lower the LTV ratio for new home loans to individual borrowers if the tenure exceeds 30 years, or the loan period extends beyond the retirement age of 65 years.

The LTV will be 60 per cent for a borrower with no outstanding residential property loan, compared with 80 per cent previously, and 40 per cent for a borrower with one or more outstanding home loans, compared with 60 per cent before the new rules.

For non-individual borrowers, the LTV ratio for home loans will be lowered to 40 per cent from 50 per cent.

The MAS move comes after the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced a 30-year limit on the maximum term of all new mortgages last month, following the launch of QE3. With the Federal Reserve looking to pump US$40 billion into the US economy each month until sustained jobs growth kicks in, worries about hot money inflows into Asia and asset price inflation have again emerged.
Stretched tenures.

Previous rounds of cooling measures had a moderating effect on home prices in Singapore, and a significant supply of housing will also come onstream in the next two years, MAS noted. "However, prices in both the HDB resale market and private residential property have continued to rise in Q2 and Q3 of 2012."

According to official flash estimates on Monday , HDB resale prices rose 2 per cent in Q3 from Q2, while private home prices gained 0.5 per cent over the same period. Separately, the SRX Residential Property Flash Report yesterday showed resale prices of non-landed private homes rising 3.2 per cent in Q3.

Low interest rates globally and locally are likely to persist and will continue to spur residential property demand, pushing up prices beyond sustainable levels, MAS warned, stressing that "the eventual correction could be painful to borrowers and destabilise the economy".

Meanwhile, financial institutions have stretched the durations of home loans, and long tenure loans pose risks to both lenders and borrowers, the central bank said. The average tenure for new residential property loans climbed to 29 from 25 years over the last three years, it revealed.
Also, more than 45 per cent of new home loans granted by financial institutions have tenures exceeding 30 years.

Lower initial monthly repayments from long loan tenures and low interest rates may cause borrowers to overestimate their loan servicing ability and take a bigger loan than they can afford, MAS said. In fact, long tenure loans create a larger debt repayment burden as interest accumulates over a longer period.

"When interest rates eventually rise, borrowers who have overextended themselves will have difficulties repaying their loans," MAS said. "If property prices fall, financial institutions may be caught holding the bad loans."

Banks which offer home loans with a tenure of over 35 years will feel the impact of the new rules almost immediately. DBS and OCBC are among those providing mortgages stretching up to 40 years.
"We will reduce our existing maximum home loan tenure of 40 years to 35 years, with immediate effect," said OCBC group corporate communications head Koh Ching Ching.
A DBS spokeswoman said that most of the bank's home loans have a tenure of under 35 years. "It will take some time to ascertain the impact of the new measures while homebuyers assess the market."
Resale impact
United Overseas Bank (UOB), which introduced 50-year housing loans in July, did not respond to media queries. Some market watchers then had questioned if the product would cause borrowers to overextend themselves, and National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan subsequently called it a "gimmick".

Maybank said its maximum loan tenure for home loans is 35 years. "With an ageing population and couples marrying and setting up home at a later age, the new rules will have impact on these segments," said Alan Yet, head of lending (consumer banking) for Singapore.

The jury is out on how the new rules will affect the residential property market. The Real Estate Developers' Association of Singapore (Redas) does not expect a significant impact. "Based on past experience, not many buyers take long tenure loans," it said. Just last week, Redas said the property sector does not need more cooling measures - at least not before a thorough review of the impact of earlier policies.

Jones Lang LaSalle South-East Asia research head Chua Yang Liang believes that the new rules may be more keenly felt in the secondary market, particularly for buyers with existing housing loans as the lower LTV applies to them.

"The property market is likely to see a knee jerk reaction with a slowdown in resale activity while new sales should remain fairly stable," he said. "Given the potential economic slowdown and with this new policy risk, developers are likely to adopt a more cautionary stance and land bid prices could be more modest."

Friday, December 9, 2011

BT: UBS sees more downside to property on gov't new cooling measures

Business Times - 08 Dec 2011


UBS sees more downside to property on gov't new cooling measures

By YEO AIQI

UBS Investment Research on Thursday sees further weakness in the physical prices of property given the severity of the government's new measures unveiled on Wednesday.

'We believe it is not in the government's interest to drive down property prices. But, given the severity of the new measures, it is hard to see how physical prices will not start falling. Assuming stocks fall as per Jan 2011, first quarter of 2012 may be a good time to start putting cash to work in the developers. In 2009, stocks recovered in Mar 2009, even as property prices fell another 14 per cent quarter on quarter in first quarter 2009 and 4.7 per cent quarter on quarter in second quarter of 2009,' said UBS.

It cited historical data where stocks typically bottomed ahead of physical market prices. In 2009, the Singapore market index bottomed in March 2009, even though the URA property price index continued falling.

Similar experiences happened during the Asian crisis in 1998, post the 9/11 incident, in 2001 and SARS period in 2003.

On Wednesday, the government announced harsh new measures that will raise buyer's stamp duties to as high as 13 per cent for foreigners and companies, 6 per cent for permanent residents buying beyond their first property and 6 per cent for citizens buying beyond their second property.

BT: New terms may hit large collective sales

Business Times - 09 Dec 2011


New terms may hit large collective sales

To avoid paying ABSD, developers must build, sell all units on residential sites within 5 years

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) The latest measures unveiled by the government are expected to have major implications for developers buying residential land, especially involving collective sale sites. They will have to develop any residential sites they buy from Dec 8 and sell all the units in the new project within five years - if they want to avoid paying the new 10 per cent additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD).

'This can be very onerous especially when the property market is slow,' said Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui.

Drew & Napier head of tax practice Ong Sim Ho said: 'For developers, it has become more difficult and costly to land bank.' He suggested one intention of the new rule could be to give more certainty to supply numbers on the completion of private homes.

Information in the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore e-tax guide on the ABSD indicates that the new 10 per cent ABSD is payable by corporate entities buying vacant land and development sites for residential use - although they can apply for upfront remission if the buyer (developer) undertakes to develop and dispose of all units in the new development (which must have more than four residential units) within five years of the date of contract or agreement to buy the site, among other conditions.

If this condition is not met, the ABSD (with interest) becomes payable immediately upon the expiry of five years. The residential sites include Government Land Sales (GLS) plots and private-sector sites including en bloc sales.

Market watchers say that with the five-year limit to complete the project and sell all units, developers will have to weigh their land purchase decisions more carefully.

'They must be confident of developing the project and disposing of all residential units in it within five years - taking into account the possibility of any turn in market conditions and in the case of en bloc sales, the risk of a possible delay in court approval,' says Lee Liat Yeang, partner in real estate practice group at law firm Rodyk & Davidson.

For en bloc sales, the date of contract or agreement refers to the date when the site is awarded by the Sales Committee. From this point, it can take six to 12 months or even longer for legal completion of the site's purchase (including court approval of the en bloc sale).

This additional time eats into the five-year limit the developer has to complete building the new residential project on the site and selling all the units, said Mr Lee.

But for sites bought through the GLS programme, the impact will be less as there is certainty that the legal completion of the land purchase will take place by the 90th day of the site's award (the latter is deemed date of contract), added Mr Lee.

Credo's managing director Karamjit Singh said the new rules will hit big collective sales very badly. 'For the small and medium-sized en bloc sale sites, most developers would already aim to buy the site, develop it and sell new units within five years, even before the new rules kicked in - whereas for the bigger sites it can be very difficult to be certain that you can clear all your units within five years.'

This will further reduce the attraction of bigger en bloc sale sites, which have already put developers off due to their steep pricing, say analysts.

There has not been any collective sale deal this year exceeding $200 million.

KPMG partner, tax services, Leonard Ong, said: 'The ABSD will certainly increase the costs of acquisition by developers who are unable to meet the conditions for remission.

'These costs are then likely to be passed on to end-buyers when the developed residential properties are sold. This would be regardless of who the properties are eventually sold to, including first-time home buyers. This cannot be the intention of the government.'

Under the new rules that took effect yesterday, foreigners and non-individuals (that is, corporates) buying any private residential property in Singapore will pay the 10 per cent ABSD. However, foreigners of certain nationalities - the United States, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Ireland - who fall within the scope of respective free trade agreements will be accorded the same treatment as Singapore citizens.

Singaporeans pay a 3 per cent ABSD for their third or subsequent residential property purchase. Permanent residents pay the same ABSD rate when they buy their second or subsequent home in Singapore.

Even before the ABSD kicked in yesterday, any developer buying a GLS residential site has been given a five-year limit by the state to complete the project, although the GLS conditions do not stipulate any timeframe on the sale of units.

However, when it comes to buying a private sector residential site (for example, through an en bloc sale), foreign developers have to obtain a Qualifying Certificate, conditions for which include a five-year limit to obtain Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) for the project and another two years from TOP date to finish selling all the units in the project.

Any developer with even a single non-Singaporean shareholder or director is deemed 'foreign'. Hence all the big listed developers, including City Developments and CapitaLand, are counted as foreign developers.

Hitherto, Singapore developers (such as Far East Organization and Hoi Hup) have been spared any time limit for completing or selling a residential project on a private site, although they face the five-year limit to complete GLS projects.

'So now the Singapore developers too will face a time limit to complete and sell units in all residential projects on sites bought from Dec 8, - if they wish to avoid ABSD,' said Mr Lee.

BT: Stocks fall, sales stall as new normal kicks in

Business Times - 09 Dec 2011


Stocks fall, sales stall as new normal kicks in

Analysts project big drop in private home prices and sales with new measures in place

By CHEN HUIFEN

(SINGAPORE) Bank and property stocks tumbled yesterday as investors reacted with shock to the latest round of measures to curb foreign and speculative buying in Singapore's private property market, potentially setting the stage for a period of uncertainty with implications for the economy.

Counters of City Developments Ltd, DBS, UOB, UOL, CapitaLand and OCBC shed between 2 and 9 per cent, as increasingly shrill and sombre analyst reports flagged the pitfalls facing these companies.

Developers, especially those in the luxury markets, are seen to be the most vulnerable, given that their projects tend to attract a sizeable pool of foreigners who, together with corporate entities, will have to fork out 10 per cent more in buyer's stamp duty from now on.

This is higher than the 1-3 per cent that they paid previously, depending on the purchase price or market value of the transacted property.

As well, permanent residents will have to pay 3 per cent more in additional stamp duty on their second and subsequent homes, while Singaporeans will be taxed similarly on their third and beyond.

These measures are expected to dampen the residential property market by lowering overall demand in the purchase of private residential properties for investment.

Coupled with the release of new government land sites in the first half of next year that will give rise to about 14,100 private homes, the measures are aimed at giving Singaporean households the chance to own or upgrade to private housing.

While the intent is laudable, industry players and observers are questioning the timing of the announcement.

One economist has suggested that the latest moves could potentially tip Singapore into a recession, given that there could be spillover effects on peripheral sectors such as legal, banking and construction. Consumer spending may be hurt as well if falling property values lead to shrinking wealth.

'Given that the economy is already fairly weak and we are sort of bouncing on the edge, it may have tipped the balance into recession given that our readings are already pointing to a possible recession,' said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin.

Already, sales agents have indicated that clients who had previously shown interest in projects here are now holding back on decisions. Developers are said to be deferring upcoming launches as they take stock of the situation. It remains to be seen if any buyers who have signed options to purchase may back out of their deals in the coming weeks.

Analysts are projecting a fall of up to 30 per cent, in terms of both home prices and monthly sales volume, next year. But of significance is the message that the calibrated taxes may send to foreign talent and investors.

'In cosmopolitan Singapore, property and housing not only showcase the country but are the best key expression of our city,' said Norman Ho, a partner at Rodyk & Davidson LLP. 'To our foreign friends and investors one of the few things Singapore can offer is a good environment for living and place to call their own while they invest their talents and time here.

'This past year, the financial crises in Europe, struggling recovery in the United States, civil uprisings in the Arab Spring as well as slowing economies amidst our region are cause for consolidation and reflection.

'The measures should only be announced with careful and prior consultation with the stakeholders in the real estate industries and with the view of the possible macro 'knock-out' effect which may have on the already fragile economy.'

BT: Govt to release smaller supply of residential land in H1 2012

Business Times - 08 Dec 2011


Govt to release smaller supply of residential land in H1 2012

Industry players fear it may still be too much, given latest cooling measures

By UMA SHANKARI

(SINGAPORE) The government will release a slightly smaller supply of residential land in the first half of 2012. But industry players feared that it would still be too much, given the latest cooling measures and the substantial supply of private homes already in the pipeline.

The Ministry of National Development (MND) said yesterday that it would release new land for about 14,100 private homes in the first half of 2012 as part of its twice-yearly land sales programme. This includes 3,500 executive condominium (EC) units.

Of that amount, around 7,000 units (including 2,900 ECs) will be rolled out through the confirmed list.

This is slightly less than the 8,100 units offered under the confirmed list in H2 2011. Land parcels under the confirmed list are sold according to scheduled dates.

MND said that it took into account the new policy measures announced yesterday and the large supply pipeline of 81,600 private homes when it decided on the land sales programme for the first half of 2012.

'In deciding on this supply, which is slightly less than the 8,100 units in the H2 2011 confirmed list, MND has taken into consideration the large supply of 81,600 private residential units - including 5,300 EC units - that are already available in the pipeline as at Q3 2011, as well as the possible moderation in investment demand for private housing due to the policy measure announced today,' MND said.

Of the 81,600 units available in the pipeline, about 41,000 units (including 1,900 EC units) were still unsold, the ministry added.

But while it cut the total land supply for private homes, more land for building EC units will be up for sale.

Sites for 3,500 EC units will be made available in H1 2012 - including 2,900 EC units on the confirmed list. This is comparable to the 2,985 EC units from five sites sold in 2011.

Demand for EC units is expected to climb after the government raised the monthly income ceiling for the purchase of new EC units to $12,000 from $10,000 in August 2011.

National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan pointed out that the EC supply is being ramped up. 'This will help higher-income Singaporeans own private condominium units in an affordable way, as the sale of new EC units is restricted to Singaporean households only,' he said.

EC units are initially sold with eligibility and ownership restrictions similar to HDB's public housing flats, but will be converted to private housing after 10 years.

Analysts were worried that the total supply of residential land for H1 2012 is excessive as it comes on top of the new cooling measures.

'I think that under normal circumstances, the market will probably be able to absorb the supply,' said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin. 'But with the kind of measures that have just been announced, there is a danger that demand could collapse altogether.'

International Property Advisor chief executive Ku Swee Yong similarly said that the upcoming supply seems to be 'abundant'.

He also noted that more than half of the supply from the confirmed list will be concentrated in the north-east of Singapore (specifically, in Sengkang, Pasir Ris and Punggol). 'The concentration of supply is a risk for home owners in those locations,' he added.

Jones Lang LaSalle's head of research Chua Yang Liang said that in the slightly longer term, the rate of immigration will play a large factor in whether the supply will be absorbed.

'Currently in the market, there is a mis-match between supply and demand due to the quick growth in population over the last few years,' Dr Chua noted. 'The measures will reduce some of the demand. But a lot will also depend on the rate of immigration next year and the years after.'

In addition to the supply of residential land, the H1 2012 government land sales programme will also comprise some 2.35 million square feet of commercial space as well as 4,800 hotel rooms.

The programme also includes a commercial plot in Paya Lebar at the junction of Sims Avenue and Tanjong Katong Road - which was put up for tender in 2011 but not awarded as the sole bid from UOL Group and Singapore Land was deemed to be too low. It will be added to the reserve list for H1 2012.

BT: Developers fear impact of targeted stamp duty

Business Times - 08 Dec 2011


Developers fear impact of targeted stamp duty

Extra 10% duty for foreigners set to help cool prices for S'poreans

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) The government yesterday announced significant steps that could bring private home prices back within the reach of Singaporeans. Developers, however, have called these steps, which are expected to hit sales and prices, untimely.

Starting today, foreigners and corporate entities buying private homes in Singapore will have to pay an extra 10 per cent by way of an additional buyer's stamp duty. This duty will also apply to permanent residents (PRs) buying their second or subsequent homes and Singaporeans buying their third residential property or more - though only to the tune of 3 per cent. Overseas properties are excluded from the count of properties owned.

The move is aimed at reining in private property prices, which some felt were slipping beyond the reach of many Singaporeans. Real Estate Developers Association of Singapore (Redas) said, however, that the measures are untimely given that the local economy is expected to slow down next year. 'Redas is disappointed in the lack of consultation on the latest measures. They came as a surprise as the current market outlook is uncertain. The good take-up rate in the primary market is driven by the increased number of new launches and unique selling points of certain projects. It is not indicative of a return to a speculative market.'

The government also boosted the supply of land for executive condos in H1 2012 as part of its land sales programme.

Though the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD) kicks in today, remission will be given for options granted on or before Dec 7 and exercised within three weeks (that is, on or before Dec 28) or the option validity period, whichever is earlier.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said: 'We have always had open markets and must keep them that way. However, the reality is that investment flows into our property market are now larger than before, and unlikely to recede as long as interest rates remain low. The additional buyer's stamp duty should help cool investment demand, and avoid the prospect of a major, destabilising correction further down the road.'

A joint release from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of National Development yesterday evening said: 'A higher ABSD rate for foreign buyers in particular is necessary, in view of the large pool of external liquidity and strong buying interest from abroad, and the relatively small size of the Singapore market.'

It added: 'Excessive investment demand will . . . make the property cycle more volatile, and thus increase the risks to our economy and banking system.'

Foreign purchases accounted for 19 per cent of all private residential property purchases in H2 2011, up from 7 per cent in H1 2009, it noted.

Credo Real Estate's analysis showed that foreigners' presence is much stronger in the prime and mid-prime districts, where they accounted for nearly a quarter of caveats lodged in Q3 2011 - up from 16 per cent in 2010 and 13 per cent in 2009.

For the suburban mass- market segment (Outside Central Region), the proportion has also been rising, from 5 per cent in 2009 to 7 per cent in 2010 and nearly 15 per cent in Q3 2011.

'The suburban mass market is probably of greater concern as buyers of first private homes would feel threatened by increasing number of foreign purchasers,' said Credo executive director Ong Teck Hui.

DTZ's Southeast Asia chief operating officer Ong Choon Fah said the ABSD is not a blunt policy tool. 'They have made distinctions between foreigners and PRs and whether they are buying for owner occupation or investment. This is very carefully calibrated to strike a balance between the price that Singapore has to pay for being an open economy and ensuring property prices remain within the reach of Singaporeans.'

She reckons developers will take a wait-and-see attitude, evaluate their options and watch how buyers react.

'Prices should fall but activity has to drop significantly first before developers re-price their projects. The likelihood is that some may first take soft measures to mitigate the situation - such as absorbing the additional buyer's stamp duty or giving furnishing vouchers - before resorting to a price cut.'

Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng too acknowledged that prices will soften. 'With so much supply coming into the market, developers will either have to revise their prices to move units, or absorb the additional buyer's stamp duty.' The latter will be tantamount to a price cut as far as a developer is concerned, note analysts.

'This set of measures will definitely help to cool prices. The concern has been that foreign buying is pushing up prices,' said Mr Tan. With the 10 per cent ABSD on foreign buyers, the long-awaited recovery in demand in the luxury sector will take even longer, he added.

Standard Chartered Bank said in a research note last night: 'We expect the policy to induce a 20 per cent decline in sales volume in Q1 2012. . . We continue to expect residential prices to fall 20-30 per cent next year.'